Alex Halderman: we will never know if the Wisconsin vote was hacked unless we check now

Actually, you are.

You are saying that a consistent and potentially organized campaign of voter fraud, specifically that of people voting multiple times in order to sway the victory, was a threat. We said that it wasn’t.

We are now looking at the actual results of the vote and are going, “huh, it looks like someone might have hacked the voting machines in this place to tip the victory”. We should check. You are saying that this is hypocritical.

However, the means are different, and the motives are different between these two cases, but this is a nuance that likely escapes you, given your literalist tendencies, so I will spell it out.

In your prior statements, you have made a big bugaboo about “People will go and attempt to cast fraudulent votes at rates that will tip the election”, and repeatedly insisted on this point despite there being no evidence for large scale voter fraud. You eventually admitted that, yes, it was an emotional appeal to you–that there was no actual concrete reason to suspect that this was happening, just a gut-level fear. You were not able to give any reason as to the motive beyond a baseless and vague handwave that “they have reason because both parties do it” and could not explain the means by which such a large scale fraud would actually be attempted.

However, now, in this case, we can point at a specific statistical anomaly that would have a major impact on the outcome of the vote. Furthermore, this specific anomaly is paired with an explainable, realistic and believable means (hacker intrusion and manipulation), and an explainable motive (flipping a state’s electoral college votes), and, furthermore, has a testable hypothesis: auditing the ballots.

And that is the difference between the two. One is baseless fearmongering. The other is “hey, this smells, let’s make sure our system is operating honestly.”

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As with your claim about the Time magazine op-ed, I must call BS. In this comment you cited the Brennan Center report (which was specifically about the bogus phenomenon of widespread voter fraud, e.g. homeless people or illegal aliens impersonating voters). You further said you expected them to “arrive at different conclusions soon,” based on other, more general and more reality-based instances and scenarios of electoral tampering being discussed (because you offered absolutely zero evidence to back up your contention that the Brennan Center would change its mind on the specific issue of voter fraud). You thus conflated the specific with the general. I wasn’t the only one to notice, either.

Further on the subject of evidence:

[quote=“Max_Blancke, post:59, topic:90007, full:true”]
If it is hypocritical for republicans to allege voting machine fraud right up until they won, then dismiss the idea as ridiculous, it is also hypocritical for democrats to take the opposite view.[/quote]

There’s no hypocrisy. As @Phrenological pointed out, the conservative allegations about voting machine fraud had absolutely zero basis in any hard fact about the evil puppetmaster Soros or in statistical analysis or really anything. Halderman’s allegation (I’m not sure if he’s a Dem or not) was based in a combination of statistical analysis that identified outliers and decades’ worth of expert and politically bipartisan criticism of electronic voting machines as highly flawed systems. A contention without evidence != to a contention that’s backed up by evidence (real evidence, not articles and studies shoddily and clumsily spun to support a contention).

Really, you’re making a fool of yourself at this point. Stop digging.

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True story: After giving us essentially the above admonition during a high school physiology lecture, the subsequent exam included the following question:

“True or false: siblings who are identical twins are always of the same gender.”

Well played, Professor Anderson, well played.

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2.1 Million now

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[quote=“bibliophile20, post:62, topic:90007, full:true”]
You eventually admitted that, yes, it was an emotional appeal to you–that there was no actual concrete reason to suspect that this was happening, just a gut-level fear. [/quote]

This is worth highlighting. Even speculation, which we all engage in here from time to time, should have a basis in something more than a gut-level feeling.

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spoke too soon @celestah!

$2,203,487.86

This is getting done!

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Except that the $2.5M is really only a start. Could end up costing 3 times that and I still doubt this will result in the results changing.

Maybe donations to the Democrat in the Senate race in Louisiana might be a good idea too.

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^ this @Max_Blancke. voter id laws are meant to stop in-person voter fraud. from one of the extensive studies done: in 14 years there were 31 possible incidents of in-person voter fraud, resulting in possibly 241 fraudulent ballots, with over 1 billion (yes, b) votes cast.

voter id laws, lack of early voting, lack of mail in voting, lack of adequate numbers of polling places, restricting felons from voting – these all disproportionately affect minority voters ( and the elderly. ) so, yes. people say these laws are racist… because yes. the the laws are. ( what else is new right? ) i don’t have hard numbers – but the margins in several states are well smaller of likely voters excluded from voting.

electronic voting on the other hand seems to be primarily about diverting tax payer funds to for-profit corporations. the effects are to generally undermine confidence in the vote – because, in some cases, there isnt a way to verify the vote at all(!)

neither party seems to talk about this – i couldnt tell you why. even clinton doesnt seem inclined for anyone to actually check the electronic votes cast. my personal guess would be: there’s a megaton of issues, and nobody wants to freak the country out. ( better a fascist as president then for everyone to realize there are places the vote hasn’t been secure for years? better your donors are happy than the results of the vote? )

at any rate: voter id laws benefit republicans. the laws are racist in their results. russian hacking may or may not benefit republicans. the laws are terrible at best.

imo: between gerrymandering, and all of the in person disenfranchisement that’s been necessary to secure the republican vote: im pretty sure we’d have a democratic majority in the house.

if reality has a liberal bias, don(t blame the liberals.

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Yeah, maybe I should have read the prospectus.

[quote]Here are the filing fees and deadlines for each state:

Wisconsin: $1.1 million by Nov 25
Pennsylvania: $0.5 million by Nov 28
Michigan: $0.6 million by Nov 30
Those are filing fees alone. The costs associated with recounts are a function of state law. Attorney’s fees are likely to be another $2-3 million, then there are the costs of the statewide recount observers in all three states. The total cost is likely to be $6-7 million.[/quote]

But, as the page says:

Now that we have nearly completed funding Wisconsin’s recount (which is due on Friday), we can begin to tackle the funding for Michigan’s recount (due Monday) and Pennsylvania’s recount (due Wednesday). The breakdown of these costs is described below.

It’s definitely a long shot. But…

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wait. wait. wait. what’s the answer?

( don’t make me go use google. :joy_cat: )

http://www.med.monash.edu.au/gendermed/sexandgender.html

I’m guessing False.

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I’m pretty doubtful the results will change in WI (or elsewhere) even if the gap tightens. If the evidence looked strong enough, Clinton would have had every reason to jump on it ASAP. She didn’t.

There are three things floating around.

First are the few large large overcounts in WI favoring Trump. The overcounts were corrected and Trump’s lead narrowed by a lot, but those overcounts were easily discovered as part of the counting process, and there aren’t more to find.

Second is the paper vs electronic count diff. which is explained by the fact that more Dem leaning districts were using paper. There’s not anything interesting there.

The last is the wide spread probing and attacks on voting systems by Russia, known flaws in these systems, and voting exit polls reporting Clinton winning by 4%. Exit polls aren’t very reliable, but a 5% discrepancy’s large enough that it seems like it’s still worth investigating to me, but I’m no election expert. The fact that exit polls in WI, NC, and OH all reported ~5% Clinton wins seems significant (FL reported Clinton winning by around 2%), though there’s no saying recounts could even resolve things. It’s impossible in OH where auditing was explicitly disabled and it’s impossible in a lot of FL districts for the same reasons.

I will say that there was certainly a whole lot of GOP cheating/electoral fraud, and it was enough that it swung the election from Clinton to Trump, but the cheating was in voter suppression and disenfranchisement through Voter ID, manufacturing long waits in Dem districts, Crosscheck, and other tactics the GOP has been voting to disenfranchise minorities. A recount can’t fix that.

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i gave my [quote=“jerwin, post:67, topic:90007”]
spoke too soon @celestah!

$2,203,487.86

This is getting done!
[/quote]

i gave my twenty bucks. $2,418,931.05 raised.

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As the teacher put it while discussing the answers to the exam, “If they’re not the same gender, they’re not identical twins.”

This exam question predated the modern distinction between sex and gender. Or perhaps more likely, it predated my awareness of that distinction. The quotes I gave above are taken word-for-word from my memory of how the question was phrased and discussed afterward, and I feel like I remember those events pretty clearly.

But memory is fallible, and I wasn’t particularly sophisticated on issues of gender identity at that age. (Hell, I’m still not nearly as sophisticated about them as I ought to be); it’s entirely possible that my brain has messed up words to match my knowledge of the language at the time. But the above was the general thrust of the question posed and answer given, several decades ago.

…I feel really old right now. :sob:

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Honest question: What’s the rationale given by the states for disabling the ability to audit the results of their voting? (Ohio and, you imply, a lot of Florida districts)

This is probably again a result of me having been out of the country for a very long time; I seem to miss most of the US national news. Apologies if this is stuff that gets played over and over again inside the US, but I can’t find much in the mainstream media about that allegation.

which is odd, given that it seems to raise it in Oregon, the first state to do vote-by-mail.

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well, unless one of them turns out to be transgender. Laverne Cox and her brother (the musician M. Lamar) are technically identical twins…or were, depending on how you look at it.

Worked out great for Orange is the new Black, they didn’t wanna put Laverne through the mental discomfort of having to make herself look like a guy again to play pre-transition Sophia Burset (Laverne was up for it and tried, but even with makeup work, she just didn’t make a convincing guy) but it turns out they didn’t have to

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I’m not even sure about that, actually. If it happened on November 9th, maybe, but at this point I don’t know that HRC would want to reopen the vote even if she were confident it would swing the overall result in her favor.

Because, if these audits reveal a problem – especially if it’s on a scale that could realistically affect the result – that will not mean that Hillary becomes president and we all live happily ever after. It will mean a country that no longer believes in voting as a means to choose a president. If Turmp had already been sworn in, and refused to step aside voluntarily (ha), then the whole exercise would have made things immeasurably worse.

So we should all be hoping very hard indeed that the audited results don’t show any tampering.

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Oh! I didn’t know that, and I had thought it was pretty hardcore that she’d done it.

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