Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2024/04/10/analysts-do-not-expect-teslas-sales-numbers-to-improve.html
…
9 Likes
The auto industry is flexing its muscle with their own EVs which are better built, better priced and whose company CEOs do not get in the news for stupid shit.
28 Likes
but mouthpiece Elon Musk is promising a self-driving taxi while other companies already offer the service without him.
As usual with Tesla, the FSD promise is an empty one. Musk’s taxis will have human drivers until at least mid-2025. It will be an Uber with an “AI” riding along, just like Cruise taxis but with worse fit-and-finish and a cut-rate DeLorean design aesthetic.
9 Likes
Probably the best thing for Tesla at this point would be to dump the CEO.
22 Likes
I’ll believe they can deploy a self-driving taxi when they are able to remove the drivers from their Las Vegas tunnel. It boggles the mind that they couldn’t make self-driving work in an environment where they have that level of control. I’d simply put navigation markers on the walls of the tunnel and make a software build specifically trained for that. Totally fake demo of the technology, to be sure, but they couldn’t even be bothered, or couldn’t make that work reliably?
11 Likes
With nothing new to offer customers
Why would we buy a Tesla when there are so many other options out there, none of which are chained to the personality of a overrich needy teenager?
One analyst at Piper Sander expects the Austin, Texas-based automaker to deliver 0.5 percent fewer cars than they did last year. That’s good for 1.8 million sales, according to Bloomberg…The Piper Sandler analyst dropped his to $205 and the Jefferies analyst put the number even lower at $165.
Picking the first car manufacturer that came to mind, Ford, they’re on track to sell over 2 million vehicles this year, including 160k hybrids and 80k electric. Mentioned in the article, GM and others are selling even more. I just bought a hybrid a few weeks ago and I love it - best of both worlds, and I waited long enough for the tech to catch up to the promises.
And yet Ford stock is 12.58 vs 205 because Tesla keeps getting valued as a tech stock. It’s not tech - it’s a company that makes cars you drew in 3rd grade that rust in normal outdoor conditions
16 Likes
I think that just tells us that it’s bullshit and it’s probably always going to be bullshit. We should focus on larger public transit programs that encourage people to use their cars LESS when possible. It’ll help cut down on pollution and make our cities more pleasant to be in… 
17 Likes
I don’t want Tesla to fail.
I want them to laser the wart off the company ass and let adults run it. I think the guy who insisted on:
- spelling out “sexy” (S3XY) with the model numbers and
- building an 8-bit stainless steel truck and
- removing sensors other than cameras for “Autopilot”
- eliminating the comms office and answering emails with a
emoji - fitting cars with a stupid yoke instead of a steering wheel
has taken the company as far as he can, and further in bad directions than he SHOULD have.
Kinda tough to rally the BoD and shareholders to toss a guy with a 13% stake. But they’re going to need to do just that.
16 Likes
Maybe electric car sales have reached saturation? The majority of the population doesn’t car what they drive, they just buy based on price. The people that wanted electric have already bought in.
3 Likes
Yeah, I don’t know why they would. Tesla was buoyed by having a tech super-genius CEO… who has turned out to be a fascist asshole who is actually pretty stupid. That realization has also allowed people to admit that just maybe all the promises of said CEO, which for years had failed to materialize, would continue to not materialize. So you’re left with badly designed, poorly built, over-priced electric cars that, as an owner, associate you with the fascist idiot asshole CEO. Not great for sales. Especially now that there are alternatives.
Hey, just because Musk has been promising it was imminent for the last decade, it doesn’t mean the promise is empty! Oh wait… it does.
Which still wouldn’t allow a self-driving taxi in any other circumstance… but yes, it’s a bit of a giveaway. I’m waiting for one of the cars to break down or catch on fire, because that will be definitive proof of how non-serious the whole LV tunnel project is. I can’t believe it didn’t shut down immediately when everyone realized the obvious safety issues.
What really gets me is his justification for that, which was that human beings are able to drive using only vision. He left out that human beings drive using vision and a human brain, which the car notably lacks. (Also, never mind that most drivers aren’t completely deaf, lacking depth perception and color blind.)
12 Likes
You only need to view that video of a Tesla following a car towing a trailer full of garden waste and not recognising it at all, to understand how useless Tesla’s autopilot system is in the real world.
4 Likes
6 Likes
Yes, and…
There is a ton of evidence to suggest that full electric have reached saturation, but the market is still robust for hybrids. Which makes a lot of sense; electric infrastructure isn’t fleshed out in all areas, charging times are still massively inconvenient, installing a home charger is crazy expensive and underpowered and the full electric drummer boy is making everyone feel icky AF.
4 Likes
The board is stacked with his family and cronies. They’re nothing without Musk, so I assume they’ll go down together.
2 Likes
The Tesla plowing into a truck trailer because it couldn’t distinguish the white of the trailer from the blue of the sky really should have been a clear demonstration of why relying on a single, black-and-white camera was a bad idea, but…
4 Likes
They’re now a mature automobile manufacturer. They’re not going to keep being valued in the stock market as a technology company.
That balloon will pop.
9 Likes
Electric cars might be approaching saturation in the U.S. at their current price point, the current gasoline prices, and current public charging infrastructure, but all of those things might (and should) change in the future. I’d bet that if Americans had the option of buying a car like the 250-mile-range Seagull for $11k there would be significantly more electric cars on the road right now. Especially if gasoline prices reflected the environmental costs.
But that said, right now most hybrids are significantly cheaper in the U.S. than equivalent electric cars, and I am a fan of plug-in hybrids with reasonable-sized batteries that can function as electric cars for day-to-day driving but have the range available when needed for the occasional longer trip. If I were to buy a new car today it would probably be the Prius Prime.
Hopefully more options for plug-in hybrids hit the market soon.
9 Likes
Oh, absolutely. I think we’re just seeing a “correction” of sorts where the early enthusiasm is meeting the logistical reality. The foreign automakers (Korea and China esp) are about to drag the price down to truly competitive levels and smart manufacturers like Rivian see the writing on the wall and are introducing low-cost models. Now that the proofs of concept have been on the road for 5+ years, it’s a race to reduce cost, increase reliability and flip the market.
That being said, hybrids still make a lot more sense for the average buyer and I don’t see that going away until there are ample charging stations and true fast charging capabilities. Full electric is still just outside the grasp of the average consumer.
2 Likes
Even assuming that’s the case it would mean that Musk just screwed over the company’s future by pulling the plug on the company’s plans for a more affordable model.
3 Likes
EV sales are doing well in lots of other countries, though. The UK is now up to 18% of new car sales being EVs. Norway is over 90%!
Japan is an interesting exception with very low sales. However their towns are built around a 15-minute city concept, they have E-bikes for local trips, and of course excellent public transport. They have lovely, light, cheap to run Kei-cars for longer journeys and heavier loads. Despite their cheap petrol, long distance road trips are discouraged by high tolls on motorways.
Americans drive an average of 14,000 miles a year, with 95% of trips being under 30 miles. To me, that’s exactly where a plug-in or mild hybrid becomes inefficient. They tend to have batteries with 40-50 miles of range, which means you’ll need to plug in at each end of your trips. That means you want a lot more public charging stations. If you had a full EV with 200 miles of battery, 99% of the time you’d only need to plug in at home overnight.
I’m sure the relative costs of fuel and electricity make a difference. Petrol is very cheap in the US, about 60% of the UK cost, which makes your electricity much less competitive.
4 Likes
