Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/12/02/cdcs-redfield-expects-up-to-200000-more-deaths-in-us-by-february-from-covid-19.html
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Need to fix the discussion link.
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For context, that’s tens of thousands more deaths than the number of Americans killed during four years of fighting World War II.
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Throughout all of this, I kept thinking that maybe people would finally get a sense of the scope and reality of this tragedy when we were able to compare it to war deaths.
Nope.
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The first rule of Xeni Post club is nobody can comment in Xeni Post club.
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I get the feeling many people who aren’t following the guidelines are too young to put those figures into that context.
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I have long predicted that we’ll see a million excess deaths in USA in 2020. Not all will be directly caused by COVID, and not all that are will be counted as such. Overloaded hospitals mean that other patients aren’t treated, so they’re indirect COVID casualties. We’ll need to see the 2020 excess deaths numbers to know the real scope of this preventable disaster.
When will Team Tramp be charged with crimes against humanity for their deliberate criminal negligence?
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on topic: BY Feb?! That’s over 2,500 deaths every day from now on. Even if it’s ‘only’ till the end of Feb (ie the end of winter) that’s still over 1,700 deaths per day.
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Boomers. 
This seems… optimistic. We have excess death numbers since March that are much higher than the official death tolls. We’re looking at holiday super-spreader events coming when the whole country is already seeing ICUs at capacity, with no spare doctors or nurses to add emergency capacity. We’re not just going to see a huge wave of new infections, we’re going to see the death rate skyrocket among those who have it, as they can’t get medical care.
That seems more realistic, given the excess death numbers and the coming holiday apocalypse.
Exponential growth + no hospital capacity (so ~10% death rate for everyone who gets sick beyond this point), and we’re already at more than a thousand deaths per day. It’s an optimistic projection.
Edit: We’ve already had 2600 people die in one day, several times. That what is now a record high one-day death toll would simply become a consistent death toll is a best-case scenario.
But as coronavirus hospitalizations rise, the number of daily deaths is predicted to get worse, with various experts recently warning that it could regularly surpass 2,000 and 3,000, and perhaps approach 4,000.
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My wife and I are nurses. We’ve socially isolated since early March (we live in Northern California) . I haven’t hugged my family (outside of my wife and toddler) since we started isolating.
Last week the floor my wife works on had its 2nd (yes number 2) outbreak. 29% of the staff has covid. The manager of the unit was sick for a while (most likely covid but did not inform the staff). My wife wears her mask all the time at work except for on her lunch break and consistently tells her coworkers to wear masks. This is at a prestigious hospital too.
My wife caught covid. We 3 have covid because not even fucking nurses take this shit seriously.
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This is unacceptable! There needs to be some corporate pressure on Governors that aren’t passing mask mandates.
I spoke today on the @nicolesandler show about about how Gov. Ricketts isn’t getting enough pressure to pass a mask mandate. Also that the 6 biggest employers in South Dakota are in health care and care for retired people. They have pressure they aren’t using. The need to be asked why not.
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I’m interested in thinking what kind of pressure can the health care CEOs and big business do to push mask mandates from the Governors.
I know that dead nurses isn’t enough for these governors. But not getting donations!?!! That is what they will squawk about, so that kind of pressure needs to be used.
If they aren’t ask why they aren’t.
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Meanwhile, my radical right catholic nephew is charging ahead with his wedding near Dallas on Dec 12th, and my 88-year-old mom is flying in, staying a week, going to all the events (indoors, lots of singing, lots of young people who probably think the virus is a hoax), and flying home. I’m trying not to get over-dramatic about it, but I basically have a week to say goodbye to mom. Best outcome would be for mom to make it back without catching covid, and for everyone to berate me for having been an alarmist. I’ll happily take whatever they want to dish out just to have mom survive. Either way, I won’t be able to see her for xmas because she’ll be in quarantine.
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And I just saw the most recent daily death toll numbers for the last two days - 2600 and 2700. It’s only going to get worse, and quickly, from here. 4000 deaths a day seems all too plausible.
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Yeah, i just saw those too. I worked out the daily rate to get a rough sense of what it meant and if it was credible. At first i was “maybe? But, nah.” Now I’m “jebus. Good luck everyone.”
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And then yesterday’s total was almost 2900, so it’s not looking so much like a fluke or spike but more like a trend. We haven’t even had the illnesses from the Thanksgiving super-spreader event show up yet, much less are we seeing the deaths from that. I keep getting all doom and gloomy about this and reality keeps upping the ante. In the end, this’ll probably be worse than the 1918 flu pandemic, and it was all avoidable.
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I’m sorry. I hope your wife recovers and I’m sorry she has to work with people who don’t care about the health of others…
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Thank you! It truly is ironic that some of her coworkers can be so uncaring. We’ve been lucky that our symptoms have been manageable.
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