If she works hard and doesn’t blow it by getting complacent (big “if”) she’ll squeak by. It won’t be the landslide one would expect from other Dem candidates given an opponent this clownish, but it won’t be the typical 2% margin we’ve been seeing in the popular vote.
The VP pick was encouraging, since Kaine will likely deliver her one swing state. If the DNC platform throws some bones that satisfy my fellow Sanders people (whose votes she’ll need to win) I’ll feel even more confident that she’s going to really fight on all fronts.
It’s impossible to predict the future but it is possible to prepare for it.
‘Will Trump win?’ is a question without an answer. Fearing that Trump will win is not in itself defeatist. Not doing anything about it is. Hence Shirky’s reason for writing this.
And I agree. We can, and must, do something about it.
I and most of the people I know plan to do our part.
But at the same time, speaking of the worst case scenario as if it’s already an inevitable foregone conclusion IS defeatist… especially when there’s still so much time left until the election.
No Hilary & Co should not be smug, they need to be diligent and laser focused.
I don’t agree; too many of that actual powers that be have too much at risk to let it happen. They very much want to keep the current status quo as is.
Personally, I don’t believe that the outcome of our presidential elections relies on the votes of the citizens; I haven’t since 2000.
But I still vote in every election, because my ancestors fought and died for the right.
That, in a nutshell, is what really concerns me; not the charlatan, but the people who mindlessly support him.
This really depends on how you’re measuring trajectories and probabilities. In terms of polling, Trump has been behind, made small gains at some points, and levelled/fell, so what length of time you look at, which polls, etc. can tell whatever story you’d like.
As stupid as it is, the undecided/swing/generally-not-all-that-bright voters in Ohio, Fla, PA, VA, NC, and a handful of other states will decide the election. In Electoral College terms, Clinton’s currently ahead in every swing state save NC (and maybe AZ, which suddenly turned into a swing state because Trump’s been performing so poorly there), and has maintained leads in the polls in those states with a tiny handful of exceptions. That is how elections are won and lost, and Trump’s currently losing in a landslide.
The risks entailed in him winning are unprecedented, and organizing, staying vigilant, donating time/anything to the right causes are all important, but there’s nothing like a likely Trump victory in the numbers out there right now (things can change, of course).
Actually Slovenia had the biggest share of the educated population, the air force and the artillery, declared independence and won a war in a couple of weeks. It’s the Balkan Switzerland, and despite problems in 2008-9 hasn’t done badly.
And like @Snowlark said, none of us can actually predict the future (though you do seem to be giving it your best shot), but we damn sure can prepare as best we can.
The thing about ‘explosions’ is that there may not be anything left to rebuild.
As for talking with pro-Trump relatives (and other acquaintances), I’m finding out that it’s such a hidden racist attitude I’m having to deal with that would require a much longer period than by November to fix. This crap isn’t going away anytime soon. Much less by the next presidential election.
A lot of leftists like to cry “the worse, the better,” but in the privacy of the voting booth most of them understand that they and their families would suffer the most under “the worse.” Which is why a lot of them (especially if they’re in swing states) will find themselves in the voting booth in November instead of staying home.
They’ll better serve themselves in the medium term by continuing the party reform movement Sanders started than by allowing a grifting narcissist and his right-wing authoritarian followers wreck the country over the next 4 years.
I have decided that I am actually going to start asking questions whenever my right wing relatives make memey shitposts to clarify their thinking.
For instance, after one conversation, it seems to be completely true that whenever someone talks about immigration laws, they are actually afraid of Muslim rapists and pedophiles forcing Sharia law on Americans to destroy our society.
I think I might be better off just deleting the Facebook app…
