All the numbers are pretty aribitrary. If a low fraction of the population has the disease, then it is a completely different calculation than if a high fraction has it. Also, inside and outside are completely different environments.
Denmark and Norway have now both had confirmed cases from the anti-racism demonstrations 10 days ago, but really remarkably few. People were packed pretty tightly together (15000 in Copenhagen, I donât have reliable numbers for Oslo), mask wearing was OK in Oslo (maybe 2/3 from the photos), not so good in Denmark (maybe 1/3). If the numbers stay this low it will suggest that for outside safety the most important thing is to not have many cases in your community in the first place.
Itâs the WSJ. I expect the NYT to be better. I expect that the WSJ editorial board were to busy masturbating because someone who touched Trump sent them a letter to read it.
Do you think he considers them to be âchildren of godâ?
Weâre really getting screwed by that right now. My parents are at risk and understand what is going on, so to be able to support them and be with them weâre staying in isolation as well. By my wifeâs parents are marginally younger (mid-60s) and without major health issues, and theyâre all âWe just have to line our lives! What happens will happen!â and then get pissy when we refuse to hang out with them.
The government had earlier faced complaints it was callous to deny people the chance to visit dying relatives.
Guess what, nobody gets to visit dying relatives in the Trumpvirus wards.
Hopefully in outdoor groupings, the breeze rapidly disperses/degrades the aerosol and droplets, but thatâs just whistling in the dark.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/us/group-tests-positive-florida-bar/index.html
The virus was âout of sight, out of mindâ since they didnât know anyone who had contracted it and they heard from their mayor and governor that everything was fine, Erika Crisp said. But within days, they started getting sick.
This may be a bad indicator
Do take note of the caveats:
âThe study comes with some very important caveats: one, this work wasnât done with an intact coronavirus. Instead, it was done by putting key coronavirus proteins into a different (and harmless) virus. Second, and more critically, this work wasnât done in living organisms, but in cells. Thereâs a lot going on inside the body that makes it a very different environment from the layer of warm liquid that cultured cells live in. And as with all draft papers, keep in mind that peer review may cause the final, published results to look significantly different from the ones here.â
The article doesnât mention the specific city or bar.
Letâs seeâŚ
The group had gathered for a friendâs birthday at Lynchâs Irish Pub in Jacksonville Beach on June 6, the same weekend bars reopened in Florida. The bar was crowded, and no one was wearing masks.
HmmmâŚShould be a good number of cases for Trumpâs convention.
Being it is in deep red OK, I fully expect the subsequent spike to be blamed on the protests.
UK health secretary fails at social distancing on camera:
Oklahoma is this Saturdayâs Trump rally. Jacksonville was referring to the GOP Convention in late August. I agree that any spike due to the rally will be blamed on the protests, though from the photos the Tulsa protesters were doing a decent job of social distancing.
I hear and feel you. My angle so far as been to carefully delay visits rather than exclude the possibility, and we now had three of those - mind, on the background of the very privileged situation that Germany currently has, and trying to minimise our contacts to the max.
The latter is no longer possible. So, the current situation is that I think Iâm heading for the point where I have to say that no, we are not willing to risk their lives, even if they find it unbearable not to see us.
Your mileage will vary, because basically everywhere else outside our small bubble, the epidemic situation is not on the same low level as around hereâŚ
One important thing I learned during the last two weeks is that the virus seems to have a tendency to overdispersion, i.e. clumping of cases, e.g. by superspreading events. This is going to be a major issue with my argueing in the future, because if a single contact who is socially active could spread the virus easily, then you have to trust your contacts. All of them. Every contact.
And I donât. I have no idea how to deal with this. I canât isolate at the moment like I would like to, because I have some serious constraints. But most importantly, I cannot trust others even to try to isolate. Social pressure is in exactly the opposite direction.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/failure-abject-failure
This is why the proper comparison is not New York vs the United States or the United States versus any European country, all of which are dramatically smaller than the US, both in geography and population. The proper comparison is the United States (~330 million) vs the EU (~440 million).
We havenât beaten COVID or even fought it to a draw while we wait for a cure or a vaccine. In the US weâve mostly lost interest in bringing it to heel.
I object to the use of âweâ in that quote. I, my family, my friends, have much interest in bring it to âheelâ.
âWeâ is for the collective trash heap that is our government now.
Paywalls. Well, making sure only the really interested readers will read it?
Maybe an oversight? Theyâve put most of their Covid-19 stuff outside, but the editors blog is traditionally inside, but hey, at least it isnât the NYTâŚ
Ducey doesnât care, of course. No-one in the world matters as much as his stock portfolio, and heâd happily knife his own children if he thought that would improve his returns.
Oz update:
I see Tasmania is still taking advantage of its physical isolation.
