Continuing coronavirus happenings (Part 1)

It sounds like they have contact tracing on 100% of clients, so we will hear more - either as symptoms develop in the clients and immediate family members or as their 14 days of quarantine run out and no cases emerge.

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Excluding NY/NJ, it’s rising and has never dropped. Second Wave isn’t a thing when the first wave never stopped.

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yeah, though. isn’t that the worry? i might feel fine and pass it on. and it sounded a bit like only some of them were self-isolating.

if they are ensuring quarantine, and are contact tracing great. but still: how are they not testing everyone? even antibody testing at the end of the isolation isn’t managed.

i dunno. it just sounded like they were implying, well: nobody looks sick so we’re good to go.

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With contact tracing and quarantine, after the requisite 14 days without symptoms, you either never had it or it doesn’t really matter. Sure, it would be great to know whether masks really prevented 140 people with known close contact from catching the disease, but it would still be anecdotal evidence at best. It would not replace a controlled, randomized study and I would suggest such a thing would be unethical at the moment.

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The following piece made me think most of @docosc, who has to figure out how to gently and subtly get through to patients and their families about facts and science and medicine:

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That’s not literally true

 
deaths minus
 

People can check my math if they want

Worldometers Daily Deaths U.S.
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Worldometers Daily Deaths N.Y.
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                data: [null,null,null,7,8,6,17,26,33,29,80,81,157,151,186,235,396,307,418,537,691,520,602,837,828,836,977,992,999,968,966,945,850,924,888,606,1025,540,627,631,764,661,507,430,617,367,348,521,330,306,289,299,280,296,260,752,409,220,186,41,243,413,165,174,155,172,191,155,168,110,127,124,103,119,79,141,102,100,98,78,89,70,90,86,117,91,29,41,74,87,77,61,83,50,37,41,46,48,46]            },
Worldometers Daily Deaths N.J.
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                data: [null,0,0,1,0,1,2,4,2,5,4,7,17,18,19,27,32,21,37,69,88,182,109,200,71,86,229,272,196,232,251,167,93,362,351,362,322,230,132,175,376,310,365,189,246,75,106,398,328,458,310,204,144,65,341,280,262,152,132,146,77,200,186,219,204,110,106,82,143,156,105,134,97,56,16,42,144,71,124,101,74,21,51,123,100,76,64,70,76,77,98,85,49,95,37,49,55,54,36]            },
U.S. minus N.Y. & N.J.
        series: [
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		data: [null,null,null,null,null,null,1,null,5,3,2,1,3,4,3,4,4,8,3,7,10,7,14,19,31,38,35,31,51,92,94,135,150,235,217,170,362,482,467,483,555,511,513,588,1027,906,921,1045,812,619,788,1287,1399,1232,1202,1116,815,1149,1553,1392,1475,1343,1210,716,933,1558,1736,1442,1301,1195,730,967,1751,1499,1462,1317,1111,564,741,1263,1473,1363,1245,938,568,767,1246,1139,1182,1041,836,440,411,592,1292,1054,991,838,476,640,995,875,815,808,613,262,436,929,807,758,659,557,257,335,748,707,665],
            }, {
                type: 'spline',
                name: '13-day weighted average',
		crisp: false,
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		data: [0.020,0.041,0.163,0.347,0.571,0.816,1.122,1.469,1.878,2.163,2.408,2.735,3.082,3.449,3.878,4.327,5.000,5.959,7.265,9.245,11.714,14.490,18.082,23.061,29.265,37.122,46.551,59.490,75.796,93.633,115.388,143.531,176.327,213.633,253.388,295.347,341.878,387.510,436.347,487.367,540.531,597.163,653.939,705.878,757.286,802.878,849.571,893.673,930.980,968.347,1007.551,1050.041,1092.653,1125.061,1156.082,1186.776,1213.184,1233.571,1242.184,1245.469,1255.918,1260.735,1261.816,1260.673,1261.837,1268.102,1278.204,1276.449,1275.776,1276.286,1275.388,1270.816,1260.939,1237.163,1217.694,1195.796,1172.102,1146.592,1124.551,1107.653,1100.367,1086.796,1071.551,1053.612,1037.122,1017.939,990.959,950.980,920.939,891.980,866.163,842.469,822.122,813.714,826.878,828.408,827.673,824.224,816.143,802.959,780.939,749.347,724.878,704.122,684.061,667.449,655.102,644.857,632.265,619.020,605.041],
            }, {
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        ],

NOTE: The national data starts on Feb. 15 but the state data starts on March 12

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Huh. My bad. Maybe what I was thinking of was cases? I know there was some key stat that had continued steadily up when subtracting out NY/NJ.

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I read this yesterday and was [shocked.gif].

I think I would be as shocked if they bought their test kits at Springfield, from a certain Charles Montgomery Burns.

IMO, ohe two major problems here - possibly not sterile, and not suitable for normal lab work (since not compatible with trays) - do either show massive neglect and incompetence on the side of the people who made that contract, or show massive despair. Assuming good faith, they simply thought "oh fuck, we’re going to try even this if nothing else is available. Which, in fact, wouldn’t be half as worrying as the alternative.

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I think it is the diagnosed cases stat that’s trending up, not deaths:

Here’s the whole of the USA from the JHU tracker:

For the past couple of weeks, that trend has been upwards, which means that deaths are likely to follow.

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True. Deaths had been on a downward trend that seems to have flattened out in the last 7 day average. Has not started rising yet, but nearly inevitable given the incidence numbers.

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OK, don’t overreact to this, because there are lots of caveats. But, just to point out how hard a vaccine might be, and what herd immunity may involve:

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Shut this asshole down permanently.

https://www.sfgate.com/food/amp/The-Truck-Box-restauarant-Carmel-35-000-penalty-15349971.php

Following the ruling, LeTowt issued a statement and argued that he didn’t commit unfair business practices. He added that “the rule of law was clearly butchered for the sake of an agenda.”

“More people die from the flu every year,” LeTowt wrote. “Definitely not something you shut down the world’s 5th largest economy for.”

This filth doesn’t deserve a job, much less a business.


Meanwhile, Doug Ducey is a mass murderer.

80,000 cases = 800 probable deaths, if the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, and this will overwhelm the hospitals.

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Gee… I wonder if those two things are related… :roll_eyes:

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And right on cue:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/prime/az-stares-down-hospital-staffing-shortage

The chart below shows that, as of Thursday, the state had 16 percent of its ICU beds remaining free.

Source: Arizona Department of Public Health

Humble told TPM that the state counts beds that have been licensed by the Arizona Department of Health.

The rub, however, is that “a licensed bed doesn’t mean that it’s a staffed bed.”

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“This is not just about personal responsibility. This is community responsibility – our responsibility to others, especially the vulnerable who need us to do what is right to keep them safe. Wearing a mask is not a burden, it is a badge of honor that shows you are doing your part to try to stop the spread of this horrible disease and help save lives,” said Valadez.

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