The question is whether it is credible that Ukraine would attack the separatist-controlled territories and give Putin the casus belli he is looking for.
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If he isn’t given a Casus Belli, he has demonstrated that he is fully willing to invent one, in the full and certain knowledge that everyone knows as a fact that he is lying. He will claim the assassination of a person standing next to him if he has to. It doesn’t matter.
And even if Ukraine doesn’t make a push into Donbas, even if it holds the current lines, then based on the lies Putin has already made, Russia will interpret that as aggression. And Ukraine can’t afford to send the amount of its army that it would need to make that push anyway, because of all those troops on the opposite border in Belorus, waiting for the word to march on Kyiv.
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i’m generally cautious about approaching the statements from so-called “never trumpers” but i think nichols has it about right in this essay he did for the atlantic—
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Thread with a summary of Zelensky’s address:
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Just a reminder that prior to being President of Ukraine, he was an actor and comedian (though he has a law degree)… Not throwing shade at him, but just pointing out that he likely did not expect to end up being in this position…
I really do feel for the guy, as he seems like he’s a good person with good intentions for his people. He’s gotten royally fucked here.
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Got this from: liveuamap .com
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Fuck. I saw Odesa too
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So …it’s happening?
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Explosions reported in Kyiv
ABC news is doing a special report right now
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Fuck. So that’s just it. If they are attacking Kyiv then that’s just all pretension falling away.
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Not sure how much is going on in Kyiv…CNN reporter doesn’t know what they are, but you can hear explosions in the background.
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Yeah, but demilitarize the country and full scale invasion. This is past the point of no return, and I am in tears
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yeah.
Major fighting seems to be going on in Kharkiv
ABC from Kyiv confirms reports of explosions
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Putin is done. The West will never do business with him again. If he wants to restore Russia to the glory of a hundred years ago he may discover 1919 wasn’t as cool as he thought it was.
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Statement from Biden
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That is what makes this such a tragedy. It’s senseless. The exercise of power for the sake of power.
Even if this is a death throe it will destroy innumerable lives. More people brought under authoritarian rule, more lives lost, and over all of it the shadow of a failing, desperate nuclear state
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I wish I could believe you.
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Don’t like the source, but he is on the senate intelligence committee
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from your lips to the universe’s ears.
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