Military Speculation


#1

Times are getting Interesting on the geopolitical front.

The TrumpGOP administration appears to be trying to destroy NATO, ally with Russia, start a sectarian conflict within the Muslim world and…then what? Stage two is a little vague.

So, two thoughts:

  1. What next? Trump ain’t the sort to let an army that big sit idle. Where is he planning on throwing his military weight around first? Syria, Iran, somewhere else?

  2. Given the well-documented habits of the NSA re: preloading US-made IT gear with spyware, how likely is it that some of the US-made military equipment in non-US NATO use contains US-controlled malware?


#2

Either the Russia investigation yields a lot of quick indictments, or we end up doing Russia’s dirty work in the Mideast and elsewhere. It’s not just about Trump, it’s much of the entire top echelon, and the ones who aren’t corrupt have been retired.

2: 100%


#3
  1. Fuck shit up

  2. ???

  3. Profit


#4

Which raises another question:

If an intra-GOP coup replaces Trump with Pence, what effect (if any) would that have on the foreign policy trajectory?


#5

We won’t care, we’ll be too busy dealing with a militant theocracy at home.


#6

Nothing to see here. Move along.


#7

Ghost in the Shell called it:


#8

Messing with Korea risks bringing China into play; I’d be surprised if they go for that first. China is the closest thing we’ve got to an opposing superpower.


#9

Lemme stop you right there. I have seen no evidence that Trump has the foresight, temperament or attention span for long-term “planning” of any kind. He plays everything by ear, all the time. If we go to war it will be on a whim.


#10

The baby is splashing in the bathtub. The baby is not planning very far ahead.


#11

Trump is a fool, but Bannon et al are not. Neither is Putin.

Trump’s bullshit about fake votes isn’t just deluded ranting; it’s a setup for accelerated disenfranchisement. The demonisation of Iran and whitewashing of Saudi Arabia wasn’t just Trump being ignorant; they’re trying to start a war. The offensiveness at the NATO summit isn’t just Trump’s boorishness; they’re trying to destroy NATO. Etc.

Not that they’re any sort of super-geniuses, either; they’re just mediocre fascist thugs. But they are capable of some degree of planning and subterfuge, albeit of a cartoonishly simplistic style. “Let’s get the Muslims to fight amongst themselves so that they’re already weakened before we conquer them all” is their idea of a cunning plan.


#12

Bannon has been marginalized as Trump’s administration has gotten dumber though. That’s where the dumb argument works for me, Putin will do his thing and honestly he’s really good at what he does. Bannon is the one bringing Trump’s image as an anti-(((globalist))) into focus and setting the contract promises. Trump, instead, has been split between the GOP and Bannon and brought in his son-in-law to be the most loyal of his power-hungry ensemble.

So now Trump is demanding loyalty and firing FBI directors investigating his administration and dealing with the Saudis and his Twitter rants are even more meaningless.


#13

Trump’s bullshit about fake votes is consistent with something a man with a long-term plan for justifying voter disenfranchisement might say. However it’s ALSO consistent with something a petty man with a fragile ego who resents the idea that he is genuinely held in low regard by the majority of the American public might say.

In the end it might not matter which one of those scenarios is true, just as it might not matter whether Trump dragged us to war as part of an evil Machiavellian power grab or out of sheer small-minded pettiness. But personally I’m definitely leaning toward the “dumbass without anything resembling a coherent long-term plan” explanation.


#14

I’m not sure he has been; he was closely involved in the Saudi trip.

I’m beginning to suspect that the reported Kushner-Bannon feud may have been hyped up to lower Bannon’s profile.


#15

Trump did previously work in the “professional wrestling” business.

They may not know how to run a country but they definitely know how to run a scam.


#16

I have books on my shelves dating back to the early 80’s or earlier about potential future conflicts and hotspots (like Korea and the Middle East, Central America, etc.). But nowadays we don’t really need a book. Just a map of the earth sums it up.

More seriously, though, where is the money? What would gain the administration insiders and their friends the most profit? Moreso now than ever, I’d guess that this administration would seek the most profitable war(s) possible, regardless of any ideology, geopolitics, or actual strategic objectives.


#17

It ain’t just money, it’s also crazy bigotry.

Bannon’s crew are convinced that a clash-of-cultures global war of Christians vs the heathens is inevitable, and they’re making it into a self-fulfilling prophesy. They’re not interested in avoiding it, they’re interested in winning it.

Ally with Russia, split Europe and the Middle East between them, then fight with China over who gets to loot Africa.


#18

Like The Man in the High Castle in reverse?


#19

Tune in next week to find out…

I don’t think that France and (especially) Germany are going to quietly go Vichy. And the Chinese are worth watching carefully; their leadership are bastards, but they’re extremely competent bastards with a penchant for careful long-term planning.

Things are gonna get interesting.


#20

Considering Trump as an ignorant and erratic fool is reasonable.

Treating his administration as completely lacking in agency or intention strikes me as unwise.

We’ve had two years’ now of “he doesn’t really mean it”, “he won’t really do it” and “it can’t be as bad as it looks”.

He does, he will and it is. The world is relying upon enough Americans waking up to that fast enough.