In the short term, I think he’ll start a war with North Korea before the year is out. He’ll need to get China’s approval, but with the way the investigations are heading he’ll need a distraction so will probably offer to back off on the trade-war stuff in exchange.
If his regime survives the investigations, Iran is probably next on the list in 2018. Putin won’t be thrilled, but if it gives him room to work in Ukraine and (if NATO is undermined sufficiently) the Baltics he’ll allow it.
A Pence Presidency will be more focused on domestic issues aimed at turning the U.S. into Gilead-lite. Foreign policy will likely revert to the neoCons, which will mean a war with Iran just in time for the 2020 elections.
“The US now has 2 aircraft carriers sitting off North Korea’s coast.”
“Together, the Vinson and Reagan strike groups represent perhaps the most powerful concentration of naval power anywhere currently on earth.” -Business Insider
I think he’ll start with air strikes on missile and nuclear testing facilities. Pudgy Leader (who no-one, including the Chinese, likes) will respond with missile attacks on S Korea and perhaps Japan. Then Il Douche will send the Marines into the DMZ and pressure S. Korea into joining him in the proverbial land war in Asia. The 64-year-old “truce” will end, the fighting will resume, and Orange Julius will have his rally-round-the-flag distraction from the various hearings and investigations for 3-5 months (it’ll be a nasty little war, but I doubt that N. Korea will last very long in that scenario. They’re in worse shape than Saddam’s Iraq).
Yeah. The really sad thing in any NK scenario, South Korea gets burned. Literally. Not to mention NK stockpiles of chemical weapons. It will be a shit storm.
Keep in mind that Mattis, the supposed adult in the room for the Trump administration, was sacked by Obama (“retired”) due to him being a psycho who was deliberately attempting to start a war with Iran.
China is actually one of strongest frenemies. They appear to be an enemy; however, they are absolutely an ally. They do not want to engage in war with us anymore than we do with them.
That headline basically translates as “global oil prices are about to rise” (Russia was the only main non-American producer not going along with OPEC production cuts). It also means that if the U.S. goes to war against Iran as described above Russia will be able to publically accept it (right now they’re the major power backing Iran in its proxy war against the House of Saud, whose major power backer is the U.S.).
“Russia wants the ruble to stop acting like an oil currency.”
“A fiscal mechanism unveiled this year, under which the government absorbs all additional revenue when crude is above $40 a barrel, marks a “change in ideology” from the previous mechanism designed to ensure budget stability, according to Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev. Given that the central bank is allowing the market to determine the exchange rate, the new approach sets the task of freeing the ruble from oil as the “main goal,” he said in an interview in Moscow.” -Bloomberg
Russia now has more of an interest in protecting the Straight of Hormuz than the US does.Wait and see if Trump pulls us out of that task…
