Exit polls showed opposition easily defeating Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, but he has declared victory anyway

boing
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Thank you for your understanding, this issue is virtually my life, my country future, I’m not here for the ideological discussion or the academic/historical nuances; but to point at our tragedy and call it for what it is, under my name and from a vantage point that cannot be match in consequences or stakes.

I know, I can (as other some forcibly and repeatedly pointed at) abrasive or worse. I really try not to, it’s hard not to; Because as today, there is not both sides that can hold water in this issue, it is hard to argue after 25 years, 9 million people forcible in exile, thousands of documented cases of human rights violations, torture, plain murder, still people are willing to give our tormentor, the sole responsible; the unquestionable and absolute benefit of the doubt. And giving it out an apparent place of so call “ideology” or opinion is plain evil from my point of view. Again, that is hard to convey in a civil or not combative matter is hard, even more, in a foreign language. After these issues are resolved or put out of the reality defining news cycle, I surely will retake my lurking attitude here for a while.

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Again, if Maduro (and about hundreds of Chavista bosses) accept, they get exile but keep freedom and life, maybe some money.

If Maduro keeps killing, torturing, etc… they keep freedom, life, all the money, and the power.

Doesnt take a genius to figure it is not a good deal. Not until the second point becomes impossible.

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Edmundo and Maria Corina are calling for a big “worldwide” demonstration on August 17th.

I’m sure plenty of Venezuelans around the world will want to protest in front of embassies and stuff.

I’m also sure that is just moral support, if that. The important thing will be the protest in Caracas, Maracaibo, Maracay, etc…

And given the turbo-repression going on - they have jailed in 2 weeks numbers that normally take them months - it is going to be a very risky proposition. Whoever does protest is an hero, but whoever stays at home should not be criticised; they are clearly risking everything if doing so.

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Mr. Maduro chose to double down the repression…

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Animated GIF

ETA

[Venezuela’s opposition faces setback after countries suggest repeat of presidential election | AP News]

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To the surprise of absolutely no one, that proposal was rejected by both sides in about 0,5 seconds.

Maduro played the “internal affairs” card about it, so basically shut up and dont bother me, and Maria Corina answered that it was an insult to the sacrifices of the people that risked, and sometimes payed with, their lifes last 28th, and also wondered where is the limit, that is, do they keep doing elections till Maduro actually wins or what?

Frankly, it was one of the most ridiculously wishy-washy stupid posturing shit I’ve read on a long time. A “coalition” government? Well, that was better reported as a cohabitation government, but still, that is the kind of bullshit that only somebody that really doesnt have any solution but wants to look reasonable" would say. How would that work? Last time there was something like cohabitation, when Maduro had the Executive but the opposition won the Assembly, they used their pet equivalent of the Supreme Court to basically nullify the Assembly and then invented the “Constituent Assembly” to write a new Constitution but hey, they can also legislate because I say so.

And then when they recovered the Assembly, the Constituent Assembly just folded without even publishing a draft of a new Constitution, because surprise, it was never about that.

Maduro and his gang does not, and can not, behave in any institutional way. Any solution that assumes that is flawed. If they believed in that, they wouldnt have done this fraud. This is the age old question of what do you do when those in power violate all law, custom, institutionality, etc… how do you deal with them?

Also, Mexico’s Lopez Obrador dropped from the thing, saying he was going to wait for the Supreme Tribunal to finish their “ratification” of results. Thats the same Supreme Tribunal that has “kindapped” some dozen and a bit parties by suspending or expelling the leadership and nominating a board to head the party… that unsurprisingly is more pro-Maduro. They have done that with opposition parties, and even with “friendly” parties that stopped being so, like the Communist Party and Tupamaro.

Do you really think there is a hope in hell they are going to rule anything but “Maduro is president”?

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I mean, just look at this. Petro, the Colombian President, tweeting about his plan, wrote:

Levantamiento todas las sanciones contra Venezuela. Amnistía general nacional e internacional. Garantías totales a la acción política. Gobierno de cohabitación transitorio. Nuevas elecciones libres

Lifting of all sanctions against Venezuela. General amnesty in Venezuela and abroad. Total warranties for political action. Transitory cohabitation government . New free elections.

Sounds nice, right. I specially like the total warranties for political action bit, which I gather Petro has some magic wand to just make it appear and empty the prisons and torture centers in Venezuela and make it impossible for Maduro to ever jail any opponent again. I mean, because what is the other option, an occupation that enforces that “total warranty”?

Apparently (I didnt read the whole thing, as I dont use Twitter anymore, so it is second hand) he talked about how the cohabitation method worked in Colombia for a while when both the left and right wing main parties united to oust General Rojas and agreed on a rotating presidency between them.

The fact that this, in Venezuela, would be Maduro and the opposition agreeing on a plan to remove Maduro, seems to have escaped his comprehension.

Not to mention the whole idea that hey, instead of your pretension to be in power forever, how about just every N years, eh? You deserve it!

For real, if this is all the help you are going to give, just shut up, Petro.

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The protest yesterday seems to have been more or less “sucessful”, in the sense of getting a good number of people out. Could have been more people but the government deployed some 6000 police and army in Caracas alone to
preemptively repress and stop people from joining the main body of the protest.

And in the middle of all this, a few days ago the Chavista Assembly approved their Anti-NGO law. I mean, thats not the title, but thats more or less the thing.

Similar to the laws in place in Nicaragua and Russia, the law says every NGO and “similar” organization has to register and basically tell the government all about their finances going on. If you thing “similar” to be too broad, you are not the only one. They also are forbidden from “promoting fascisms, intolerance, hate and discrimination”. Which, again, for the Chavista goverment means anything they dont want you to say.

Diosdado Cabello, the #2 PSUV boss, “explained” that this was because they found 60 NGOs that had been financing protests and “terrorism”. As usual, the explanation never went into what actual proof they have for that, because the proof is that he said so; try to say the opposite and see how fast you are found promoting fascism. The law also specify how an NGO can be dissolved in a “fast process” by the courts when found to not comply or not pay the fines.

Also a lot of stuff about foreign NGOs, foreign donations, etc.

They have been toying with this law for a year, basically using it as a threat that is coming, but well, clearly now is the time for implementing this and any other idea related to shutting down civic society and allowing only the groups approved and controlled either directly by them, or by the fear of being shut down at any moment.

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And to nobody surprise, and after doing some kind of circus about how they were conducting an audit of the election (something they arent supposed to be doing), with who know what experts, and guess what.

The Supreme Tribunal declared that Maduro won. Because they say it. Also that they keep all the material, thank you. And also that the opposition should be investigated from forging documents, “creating unrest”, and a bazillion other things. And that of course, not doing what the TSJ says is not possible because they are the highest court in the land.

What is going to happen now, I dont know. I mean, apart from their repression, but I dont know if there is going to be any kind of protest or if we can say they won this again - not the election, but the “do whatever to keep power” thing.

As absolutely expected at this is, well, it is still sad. Either people are going to ramp up protest and they will ramp up the arrests and killings, or we get to another period of crashed hopes as everybody just throws the towel and starts planning how to survive or migrate.

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“I will never tire of calling for dialogue and understanding, because we have the experience, the people, the civil-police-military union, and we are the embodiment of the sacred forces of the homeland. These people were blessed to have a father like Hugo Chávez; we are the sons and daughters of Chávez. We have the moral right, because of everything we have fought for and resisted, to call all Venezuelans to unity.”

Bingo. Maduro is straight-out saying that the Chavistas owe their legitimacy to revolutionary struggle and patriotic virtue, not to the electoral process. “Dialogue and understanding” are tools to make everyone understand why they are right.

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Yea, the crackdown is huge. Normally you would get a high profile arrest every month, more or less. Right now every week you have 3 or 4 opposition members jailed. And the number of just plain people is staggering.

Somebody that just appeared back in scene was Mr. Delpino, one of the IIRC 3 “opposition aligned” top officers (rectors, is the name) of the CNE. Way before the elections he was denouncing irregularities and saying that Elvis Amoroso, the Chavista head of the CNE, was taking decisions without consulting the rest of the board. And then, from the election day onward, he was missing. Not a pip. Well, he wasnt arrested, although this may change now, as he published a letter saying basically the same although with some small IMHO cover your ass stuff, like the “hacking” may not have happened (no shit, Sherlock). Also that he decided not to go to the central totalization room given all those irregularities, which sounds weird but also self-protecting, as he says that he “doesnt have” the evidence about “who won”, just a lot of irregularities to report.

Not sure if all those zig-zag maneuvers are going to protect him from the Chavistas.

And @GagHalfrunt is absolutely right. Like, for starters, what dialog involves the opposition recognizing Chávez as “our father”? I already had one, much better than a lunatic loudmouth of a military strongman, thanks. They were not using the old corpse much lately as, well, they keep deviating from his “wisdom”, but now that they are circling the wagons it is a battlecry to recognize friend from foe.

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Maduro also made changes in his cabinet after his “victory”, and one of them is very telling; he put Diosdado Cabello as Minister of Interior, Justice and “Peace”.

Cabello is well known as one of the most hardline of them all, and in fact it is said that he was not happy with the whole setup for the election and wanted a more… punitive approach. Given that their plan of winning the election by all the roadblocks they threw at the opposition ended up failing and they had to go for stealing it, he seems to have become even more ascendant. As head of that Ministry he will be the top boss of the SEBIN (“intelligence”, and one of the most infamous agencies in the country), CICPC (the old “technical police” that had the people to do scientific analysis of evidence and stuff, but also a good number of cops), the PNB (the “normal” police), SAIME (the department that runs the systems to get national ID, passports) and some other stuff.

He is also infamous for his TV program “Con el Mazo Dando”, where he routinely harrass, insults, accuses and demand action against whoever he wishes, and most of the time gets those targets into real trouble. Now he doesnt have to go for a middleman.

The logo of his program:

image

He also has a club in his desk when filming the program, most of the time.

So, they are clearly commited to the plan of violence.

And now another countrywide blackout :confused:

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