Exit polls showed opposition easily defeating Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, but he has declared victory anyway

3 Likes

It’s 16 years old, but this article should show that things are far more complex than El Pais claims

5 Likes

Lets say that without reading the article, the fact that Maduro has been in power the last 11 years means that is not really going to be quite accurate in what is happening now and why.

16 years ago Chávez was still alive, oil was at much better prices, the honeymoon with Chavismo was starting to wind down but still had some strength, there was no CLAP, the country wide blackout was something nobody really expected, and a bazillion other things.

When Chávez was around and with money to spend, it was one thing to be friendly with his government. When you have several million Venezuelans in your countries as refugees, thats a bit more costly.

In any case, I’ll give it a look, but again, the country of 16 years ago is just a memory of better, or at least not so bad, times past.

3 Likes

Meanwhile, the repression is on full steam now. People have been arrested in Maiquetía Airport when trying to leave the country (for work, pleasure or because well, the obvious). Others have not been arrested but have been informed that their passport is now null. Theirs, and a lot of other people inside the country and abroad.

The Chavistas have also got into their routine practices but at bigger scale; lot of messaging about “Operación Tun Tun”, “Operation Knock Knock”, which is the informal name of their plans of repression, mocking a Christmas carol that says “Knock knock, who is, people of peace”. I dont like to link to Twitter and specially their accounts even indirectly, but you can see 2 examples here:

There you will see a video where they make a kind of videoclip of first a lady that recorded a rant about the very low quality of the food in the CLAP bags and insulted the government, and then how the “heroes” with action music go, arrest her, and make her “confess” her crimes.

Another videoclip, saying Operación Tun Tun “Sin lloradera”, “No crying”, again with creepy music - in this case the Carol of the Bells but with lyrics about how if you have been “bad” they will go and get you. The ones getting you in the video are the DGCIM, military intelligence.

The idea, of course, is not only to do the repression, but to mock their victims and multiply the fear of their actions. Again, this is not new, is the standard playbook of Chavismo, but given the circumstances they are doubling all efforts on that front.

3 Likes

So if the Venezuelan anarchists were not friendly towards Chavismo or neoliberalism then, surely the relationship is worse now?

My point is that there was left wing criticism during the better times, but the mainstream media are choosing to ignore it because they are creating a false narrative.

4 Likes

The Venezuelan anarchists were not friendly with neither of those, yes, I mean, they are anarchists, no state is their thing.

The reason why mainstream media doesnt cover them much is that, well, they are about as irrelevant politically speaking as you can get. By all means, I’m sure the few that they are have a very comprehensive take down of both sides from anarchist theory, but it is not like they are movilizing millions, or even thousands, with that.

On a purely intelectual level, I’m not anarchist but I have some respect from their position (I mean, is hard not to think they may have a bit of a point when watching stuff like the videos above) and have no problem discussing whatever they think about stuff. But again, on the practical side of things, as a political force inside the country, they are not even a blip on the radar.

3 Likes

Anarchists in vnzl are like;
Arrested Development Tobias GIF

Mainstream media is like, yeah, ok…
Venezuela have ~30ish million ppl “anarchists” like actual ppl that strive towards it could be like; ~100? Maybe in some Uni campus or in the Andes or in a beach somewhere?

Yeah, people used to laugh and point at abolitionists too, say that they’re some tiny, radical fringe minority, to be scoffed at… Maybe. Doesn’t mean they were wrong, though, or worth scorn.

again, attacking the person is not cool, and that is once again, what you are doing here.

2 Likes

One need first to meet a Venezuelan anarchist to be able to laugh at it.

And again, if the tone, the GIF or pointing the fact of the approximate population is in somehow an attack to someone or something; I’m sorry, to be clear, I’m not looking or wanting to “attack” no one with this particular reply, in fact I tried and apparently fail to be lighthearted.

Then reply in a less hostile manner… :woman_shrugging:

Yeah, you did.

3 Likes

The article was about the mainstream left-wing parties of Central and South America and their charismatic leaders. Nowadays, for example, it is very difficult for Mr. Lula da Silva to keep silent about the situation in Venezuela. This year we will have an election for the mayors of all Brazilian cities, which are full of all kinds of problems such as lack of basic sanitation, pollution, homeless people, bad education politics etc. But there will be no shortage of populist opportunists from the festive right who will use the issue of the Venezuelan dictatorship to try to take votes from left-wing parties. Now, what does the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro or Indaiatuba have to do with Chavismo? Nothing, but years of reactionary indoctrination have created people who are afraid of dictatorships they don’t like.

ETA

Despite some national press outlets demanding a strong stance from Mr. Lula on the chaos in Venezuela, the Brazilian government insists on not speaking until the Venezuelan authorities present definitive evidence about who won the infamous presidential election. Ms. María Corina Machado praised the leaders of countries that have not yet supported Mr. Maduro. For her, this shows/proves that the elections are under suspicion, contrary to what the Venezuelan government claims.

8 Likes

On the ongoing repression, there are many reports of police, Guardia Nacional, and all the other “law enforcement” (quotes on purpose) organisms taking cell phones from people, demanding they show their chats and Facebook, Twitter, etc. Any content that “incites hatred”, which under the “Hate Law” the Chavistas passed in 2017 is more or less whatever they decide, can end up with you in prison. Given that the number of people detained is around 1000 and Maduro said he wanted a thousand more, I guess thats a very easy way to make your quotas.

But more importantly, again, this is about fear. Do not talk, do not post, do not say anything, just shut up and survive. It is going to work? It depends. I dont know, mainly because I’m not in Caracas, but while there are very interesting things in this round of protests, for example that it was mainly on the poor neighbourghoods and slums that were bastions of Chavismo years ago, in the end the combo of fear and the need to get on with life may end cooling down things and returning to widespread apathy and resignation.

4 Likes
2 Likes

To add to the pile of reasons why you should never trust anything that comes out of a Chavista boss’s mouth, Maduro gave a conference and had Jorge Rodríguez, spokesman for the Assembly, head of Maduro’s campaign, and in a very crowded field one of the top 3 more repulsive liars, manipulators and bullies of the PSUV, to explain why the results published by the opposition are fake and part of a coup, etc, etc, etc.

There are several lies in the whole package, but there is one that is so quintessentially Chavista. He said that the opposition bought the domain they are using to publish the results the day before the election, thus proving that they planned to make a “fake CNE”. Of course that doesnt prove that - by law the parties have to have the tallies, and guess what, the PSUV did exactly that in 2013, publish on a website the tallies they got.

But that is not the uber-Chavista bit. That was the part in which he explained that they “got a server from Amazon” and that means “Jeff Bezos is on the coup d’etat plot”

Yea, it is an AWS setup. You can do it with your credit card and online without Jeff Bezos even knowing you exist. But we here know that, and many in Venezuela know that, but with almost all media either dead, blocked, or under control, they can say whatever the hell they want and put it on the public TV and, hopefully, either convince some low information (not by choice…) citizens or, well, provide another bit of nonsense for the fanatics to scream against the Empire and stuff when they go beat some people.

And of course, if you try to explain this to, say, your Whatsapp group chat, you are spreading hate.

4 Likes

[Maduro blocks X in Venezuela as election dispute pressure mounts (msn.com)]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/maduro-blocks-x-in-venezuela-as-election-dispute-pressure-mounts/ar-AA1ovaGV?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[Venezuela’s Maduro blocks X access in country for 10 days | Reuters]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-maduro-signs-decree-blocking-x-access-10-days-2024-08-08/

4 Likes

ETA

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/panama-offers-asylum-venezuelas-maduro-allow-transition-2024-08-09/

4 Likes

Frankly, the Panamá thing irritates me a lot. First, because the problem is not Maduro. Or better to say, is not only Maduro. Maduro is just the nominal head of a group of people. Is he going to give asylum to Cabello, Saab, the Rodríguez brothers, Padrino López, Maikel Moreno, and a very long list of people?

But more insulting, there is NOTHING right now that will make Maduro and company accept anything like that. For that offer to be accepted, the country would have to be up in arms, with at least half the Armed Forces on the other side. And then he would think about going somewhere friendly, Russia, China, Cuba, not Panamá. But again, the big point is that without any pressure, they will keep working as they are now - why go to exile when you can simply kill, torture, scare and bully people till they break? Why risk it when being even more authoritarian each day gives them the same immunity for their crimes and they get to keep power too?

In general, almost every time I hear negotiation or dialog about Venezuela, I get really angry. Because most of the people saying it seem to think dialog is some magic wand that will solve problems by having a nice discussion and then everybody will compromise to get the best result for the country. Similar with Ukraine.

If I want to buy, say, a desk, and you have a business selling furniture, you and I can sit and have a negotiation and see if you convince me to buy it and I convince you to give me a better price.

If I want to kill you and you dont want to be killed, unless you make me reconsider the cost of that plan with some significative threat to me, the negotiation is going to be, like all the hundreds of negotiation with Chavismo in all these years, a maneuver to buy time at best.

Until the situation evolves to a point where they fear losing freedom, money, or life, it is clear that for them there is no incentive to sit and negotiate in good faith, when they can just keep their program of cruelty and keep all that and control of the country too.

EDIT: and before anybody gets the wrong impression, I’m not advocating for, say, foreign military intervention, mainly for the combo of that being a risky thing for all involved and being something no government is even thinking about. But as mentioned in a post way back, the dictatorship before this one fell when the Army decided to stop supporting Pérez Jiménez, who then got in a plane to Spain (Franco was still alive and Spain was the best destination for assholes of a certain political bent). Thats the kind of situation that works, because there is a credible threat.

3 Likes

Soemthing similar happened in Bangladesh.

Ms Hasina’s decision to flee was also hastened by the military, which would have put pressure on her to step down. The army, which has ruled Bangladesh in the past and is still hugely respected, has an outsized influence over the country’s politics.

The violence from the weekend as well as the prospect of facing fresh rounds of massive protests would have made the military establishment re-think its options.

Junior officers had already raised concerns about being asked to fire on civilians in a meeting with the military chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, on Friday.

2 Likes

Now you have this article about an amnesty plan sponsored by authorities from United States:

[Exclusive | In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power - WSJ]

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/in-secret-talks-u-s-offers-amnesty-to-venezuelas-maduro-for-ceding-power-e22b4821

2 Likes

A lot to unpack here. Fascinating. Alarming. And kinda surreal.
I am grateful for your added context.
Thanks for keeping things real here on this bbs.

The frustrations and injustices you list here are painful to the people of Venezuela. I am sorry about this suffering no matter who is responsible. I hear you.

2 Likes