# Explainer video - this is a good time to understand what exponential growth means

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/03/09/explainer-video-this-is-a-go.html

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Heh, made me think of the the book Seveneves. Read it last year and loved it. They face a similiar problem with the fragmentation of orbital debris in the book. Excellent read, cant reccomend it enough.

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Or at least at the time he was writing this…

Can not watch at the moment…

Hope they mentioned, they are only measuring the growth in detected cases, not new cases, at least in the US.

(It is almost irresponsible to not make that clear when reporting on cases in the US)

At this point cases may or may not be growing exponentially. Many many of us are doing what the experts advise to mitigate spread, hand washing, social distancing, and that could very well be flattening the curve.

We really have no idea with so little testing.

Good science I saw from over night that will help with flattening the curve as well, every day we learn more and that helps flatten the curve.

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I’m seeing a bit of noise in the reporting, probably due to lag of a day or two in detection to reporting in the data. I just checked using the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Data to March 8th, where the data lags the WHO’s Situation Reports by a few hours.

I also got an exponential growth rate of 0.15 with σ=0.06 per day for cases outside of China.

Looks like exponential to me, to a good degree of confidence. It will be a couple of weeks before one could say otherwise with any confidence.

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Mathematical modelling, which is about all we have right now, suggests a doubling time of roughly 6 days in an immunologically naive population, at least until it hits significantly greater than 1% of the population.

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Do you have a reference for where you get those numbers? I do like to read stuff for myself.

I will come across it eventually, but my shiny new-to-me-the-3rd-owner 1974 Ford 2000 tractor is really taking away from my panic twitter time.

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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

None of this is definitive, but reasonable starting point at least.

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