At this rate, they are going to need to define Cat 6 at some point in the not too distant future.
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this one is for you, Mindysan33;
Global heating is accelerating faster than is currently understood and will result in a key temperature threshold being breached as soon as this decade, according to research led by James Hansen, the US scientist who first alerted the world to the greenhouse effect.
“I think [Hansen’s] contention that the IPCC has underestimated climate sensitivity somewhat will prove to be correct,” said Rob Jackson, a Stanford University scientist and chair of the Global Carbon Project. “It’s hard to know what’s unlikely any more in terms of warming. No fossil fuel has declined in use yet globally, not even coal.
“I think Hansen’s pessimism is warranted. He stood up 35 years ago and sounded the alarm – and the world mostly ignored him, and all of us.”
and as I said; he was right in his predictions so far…
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Lol wut
Hansen himself must be mortified by this line.
I will say again, every IPCC forecast has been overly conservative. I suspect this was intentional, partly to not sound alarmist (although we should have been alarmed decades ago) and secondly, because if any of their predictions were to overshoot, the right would use that to discount the entire thing. Of course, they do that anyway, but that’s a different story. It is safe to assume that we have passed a couple tipping points already, and the 1.5oC limit is gonna fall by the end of the decade, if not earlier. But there are other tipping points not yet passed and things that can, and must, be done ASAP. I suspect FL will have to be underwater before we can get anything actually done, but I maintain hope that this is pessimism and not realism.
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I guess so. but thats the standard-introduction for him in mass-media…and its not wrong, from wikipedia;
He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1988 Congressional testimony on climate change that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to avoid dangerous climate change
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That’s a far cry from “first alerted the world to the greenhouse effect,” though. The Guardian framing perpetuates the myth that the greenhouse effect wasn’t known or widely understood in scientific circles before Hansen came along in the late 20th century to alert the world (the wording even gives the impression that Hansen discovered it). This myth is not only wrong, it’s a common trope from the denialsphere. Of course that wasn’t the author’s intent, but it’s still incorrect and sloppy.
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whatever. Im just glad he isnt ignored anymore. was about fucking time.
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Absolutely.
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Nah pessimism is what I am afflicted with and I think it will take more than that to prompt any meaningful action.
Once the famines and mass migrations start the people will be too embroiled in killing each other to be able to reduce emissions even if economic collapse and mass death lower them some.
We have already failed.
War is particularly bad for the climate.
I have no plans for myself beyond 30-40 years and no children, and the climate is definitely part of the reason… which is one way to reduce one’s carbon footprint I guess if nothing else, but also maybe makes acceptance of worst case scenarios easier.
If I’m alive in a couple more decades I hope I’m proven wrong, but I only act in service of hope because of vanity and my own moral conscience. I don’t want to be one of the people who didn’t even try to save us. At this point we would have to like partially ban domestic air travel, ration AC usage, and accept nuclear development across the globe with all the direct and indirect risks like bomb development that brings. Some people won’t even cover their faces to cough for the good of others.
We are dead.
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I appreciate that, but cannot allow myself to go down that path. Too much to live for, grandchild coming, need to make a world she can grow up in. Doing the best I can.
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I hope you are right. But I think pessimism and optimism need to be seen realistically on this subject so I’m willing to put a real ugly depressed doomer take on the table.
If I could rid myself of it I swear I would…
The counter argument I typically make to myself is something along the lines of “but people can do these things, however drastic they seem, and if enough people understand the consequences they will force compliance on the rest of them…”
And it is true we have sometimes accomplished things along that vein. Doing so peacefully theoretically could become humanity’s single greatest achievement.
I like that story better so I tell it to myself even when I don’t believe it.
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Yeah, of course, that’s already happening, and it’s getting us a right wing backlash against climate refugees…
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The research suggests that an ongoing reduction of sulfuric air pollution particles called aerosols could send the global average annual temperature soaring beyond the targets of the Paris climate agreement much sooner than expected, which would sharply increase the challenges faced by countries working to limit harmful climate change under international agreements on an already treacherous geopolitical stage.
Although some are implying that he is pushing for increased air pollution, or at least a rollback on aerosol controls, that is not what I am seeing. More that he is trying to more accurately model what is already going to happen. Which is way worse than IPCC forecasts, as we discussed earlier. Anyway, it’s gonna be a rough ride. Buckle down folks.
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Grim context surrounding it, but congrats on the grandkid.
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Decade until tipping point. Eventually, Lithuania will be divided into islands, become as cold as Lapland
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ETA
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