This is what happens when you make everybody and their brother a ‘mandated reporter’. Intra-society trust plummets, and you can’t take an honest reading of ‘the pulse’ of a community.
2 Likes
No reliable non-partisan pollster said this, not even FiveThirtyEight.
What the polls showed was that while Clinton was favored to win, Trump also had a very good chance of winning.
7 Likes
In this election, I’m paranoid, so I’m thinking all of my neighbors are racist, knuckle-dragging creeps who will vote for 45 to spend 4 more years terrorizing US residents and the rest of the world. Sheesh! What a moron!
ETA: I don’t know a single “shy” 45 supporter - they seem like a pretty “proud and out loud” bunch to me.
23 Likes
I mean, you’re probably not wrong here.
6 Likes
But if something has a 30% chance of happening, it can’t happen, right?
4 Likes
It would be nice if the electoral mechanisms themselves were this accurate.
4 Likes
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and he’ll most likely lose it bigly next week. The popular vote is not what put him into the White House. Expect all kinds of machinations after his November 3rd loss to keep him in there. This election will not be over until the oath is taken in January.
16 Likes
A mere 1 in 3 chance. That’s unpossible!
6 Likes
Once. Once, please.
3 Likes
Arie Kapteyn’s poll result is the product of the Understanding America Study which is supported by the Social Security Administration whose current commissioner is Andrew Saul (a registered Republican who earlier ran and failed in his attempt for public office). Saul was nominated for SSA commissioner by Trump.
This from the link above: The nomination drew sharp criticism from Social Security and disability advocacy groups because of his involvement with the right-wing Manhattan Institute, which has repeatedly called for cuts to Social Security benefits. His lack of experience with Social Security and the accusation that he impersonated a police chief while trespassing on his bicycle were also brought into question.
4 Likes
-
Polls are not completely accurate.There is a built in margin of error.
-
2016 polling was still within margin of error, IIRC.
-
This is not 2016. The up swell in early votes, while partly due to Covid, it is clear that the interest in voting is way up.
-
If people are lying about their vote, it is naive to think that is only happening on one side.
-
Even if they polls are 100% accurate, Trump could eek out a win with the electoral college. So we really need everyone to vote.
-
Even 538 gives Trump a 10% chance still. While better than Russian roulette, still not “safe” odds.
10 Likes
Only if you keep military time…
2 Likes
The polls in 2016 were accurate; the media coverage of them was not.
I agree that we shouldn’t dismiss the odds of Trump winning; it’s a distinct possibility and we need to take it seriously. (Moreover, what polls don’t tell us is what’s going to happen with various Republican efforts to get votes tossed, electors replaced, etc. The final result may not match how people actually vote.) But the narrative that the 2016 polls were wrong, that they undercounted Trump’s support, is greatly exaggerated. The polls in 2016 weren’t any less accurate than usual.
4 Likes
Yeah. Unless we know what they publicly projected for the previous several presidential elections, this don’t mean squat. 'cuz I’m willing to bet they predicted McCain and Romney wins too.
4 Likes
“shy Trump” or “shy Tory” is just a rebranding of Nixon’s “silent majority”. It’s an old trope that makes right wing bigots feel good about their beliefs because “most other people are like me, I knew it!”. It’s not true of course, but it seems to be effective at emboldening the base. The right only speaks to their base now, because that’s all they have left (and have had since at least H.W. Bush).
12 Likes
Not to mention that if there was a Shy Trump voter effect:
- The Republicans should have won big in the 2018 mid-term elections. As it was, they gained a few seats in the Senate, and were trounced in the house.
4 Likes
And maybe not even then.
1 Like
A Trump win is likely.
It’s just that a Biden win is more likely.
(And a Kanye West win is not likely)
6 Likes
On 3d6, that’s an 8<. I play Hero System. 
1 Like
