It seems there are various possible outcomes.
The most likely might be that a higher court overrules Cannon’s dismissal, but sends the case back to her court for her to mess with some more.
It’s just possible that the higher court could rule that Cannon’s behavior indicates a pattern of bias, reverse the dismissal and assign the case to another judge.
However, the case likely won’t come to trial before the election. If Trump wins, he’ll make the case go away by dismissing Smith. If he doesn’t win, then his lawyers will appeal the case up to the Supreme Court, who will probably nuke the conviction by ruling that Smith was illegally appointed. This is the argument that Cannon made, based on an opinion that Clarence Thomas injected into the ‘presidential immunity’ ruling. The question of Smith’s appointment did not come up in the immunity case; Thomas just tossed his thoughts on the matter in there unasked, and Cannon promptly used them to quash the documents case (as Thomas plainly intended).
So there doesn’t seem to be a path for convicting Trump for the documents case, and the Supreme Court has made it as hard as possible to convict him in any of the other cases. If he is convicted on any of those, the Supreme Court will no doubt step in with another ad hoc ruling in his favor.
The only path that I can see to Trump ever being convicted for any of his crimes is if (a) Biden wins the election and the cases are allowed to go forward and (b) the Supremes decide that Trump is a spent force and it’s no longer worth putting their integrity on the line to give him special protection.
I’m not optimistic about (a), what with all the other fuckery going on. If, nevertheless, Trump loses, my guess is that the court majority will still be firmly in his corner. Even if Trump is no longer the Golden Meal Ticket that buys conservatives everything they’ve ever wanted on a plate, his appointed justices will still protect him just so they don’t find themselves on the wrong end of a MAGA sniper-scope. Or simply to say “fuck you” to their political enemies.
