8 Jan 2022
On Jan 7, Min Aung Hlaing met with Cambodia’s eternal Prime Minister Samdech Techo Hun Sen (a meeting of deep concern as another coup legitimizing photo op). Hun Sen has assumed chairmanship of ASEAN and is promising a “different approach” which smells to pretty much everyone as more of the same. For example, during this meeting MAH supposedly “declared a five month ceasefire” (this article is garbage btw) but one must always read the fine print on these. So far it’s always proven to be a lie.
Over the 24 hours that followed this announcement, attacks against the Karenni people continued in full fledged military action that could only have been carried out at the orders of the top brass:
Here’s a summary of the pressures Karenni have been under (“IDP” = Internally Displaced Person, basically refugees from their own townships who are in hiding or IDP camps):
As a reminder, not one of the five points previously agreed to have really been met. ASEAN leadership has a habit of blowing up the smallest signs of progress. Hun Sen brought up the case of
Sean Turnell, according to Hun Sen’s Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn. Look where Sokhonn took this:
“Hun Sen raised the issue with Min Aung Hlaing directly and he responded that the case is now before the court but he said that once it is completed, the senior general will consider the case. That means he promised that he would get back to Hun Sen with positive news,” Prak Sokhonn said.
No. That only means that at this particular moment, MAH said he will “consider the case” when it is through. The quote above illustrates the clumsiness of the ASEAN partners in being able to assess who exactly they’re dealing with and how to hold him accountable.
Yet, it may indeed be a positive sign for Turnell. Historically, this is how it has tended to work. The generals like to get their kangaroo court conviction before offering any leniency. That way they can later deny a visa or re-imprison the foreigner should they come back during better times. This is how they handled Danny Fenster. Possibly they accelerated his case as they began talking with the Richardson team.
The coup regime still detains at least two American citizens. There is some hope of release after conviction. But there are no promises that can be trusted. There is a great capacity through the entire history of the Tatmadaw to break promises that others believe you have made. Many business partners have called it quits because it was not possible to do business in Burma or Myanmar without violating the laws of their own countries against corrupt practices.
On to US news: the brand new appropriations proposal from Biden/State Dept. includes a number of provisions for Burma. Per organizer Mike Haack, the current draft of the State Department’s 2022 budget allocation includes “not less than $136,127,000 shall be made available for assistance for Burma” and includes things like funding for groups on the border and even CDM and particulars ministries of the NUG.
Search the word “Burma” for full text.
Here’s the main Burma appropriations section.
I also wanted to share some interesting pieces in Nikkei Asia. I’m not having any fun with firewall and cookies options which seem inordinately complex. I’m only able to see full articles after suspending ghostery and there’s a limit of three which I blew through before getting to all of these. If blocked, you’ll only see the first paragraph. Having said that, they are good writers (gwen robinson is very well informed) and these three may be of interest.
Norway’s Telenor to divest from mobile banking, selling stake to a Singapore company, as they can no longer protect user privacy.
The past three months in Myanmar documented by photog who’s decided to leave.
2021 year end review of “a year in darkness.”