“Pool is very deep, da? Are you sure is safe to swim in?”
I suppose Erik Prince is a better example as a person, but what ever Blackwater is called right now, they don’t have the same armament, numbers, or strong leadership - within the US - for it to be comparable.
And if they did, no way something like that would let slide. Maybe if it was just a mobilization, but if you shot down a Blackhawk, then you can bet they would throw the book at him. He isn’t so special that he can’t be replaced.
I know, President Trump did everything but step over that line, and the wheels are justice are incredibly slow. But Prince or another military leader is not Trump and not the President and wouldn’t have the same systemic protections.
And Putin is covering for that guy with all the boxes in his bathroom.
Odd how Putin will stick up for some failed violent coup leaders.
By embarassing Putin, he has sealed his own fate.
Prigozhin is now a Dead Man Walking, since I don’t see Putin honoring any ‘deal’ he might have made via Lukashenko.
The only questions re: Prigozhin’s demise are:
How soon will it occur, by what means, and will we even know?
My money is on ‘A Tragic Accident’, rather than ‘A Sudden Illness’, and ‘Defenestration’
has been done to death…
Perhaps a tour of a hot dog factory is in the works.
Would there be some value for some western government to offer YP asylum?
No. He’s a flat out psychopath who’s idea of a good time is murdering someone with a sledgehammer working from the toes up.
Fuck him, let him die. He’s earned it.
I don’t know, I think the Netherlands might have a place for someone like that.
I assume Prigozhin doesn’t actually believe this is the end of things with Putin, though, and will be trying to come up with some better plan than waiting for assassins.
Analysis I’ve read points to it indeed being “mercenary kayfabe”, more or less. Prigozhin was most likely flexing his muscle, showing everyone in the government you don’t fuck with him and his crew.
So much of the Russian army was tied up in Ukraine it was relatively easy for him to make a legitimate threat with only about 3000 men.
Citation for that? Who’s doing that analysis?
Below is a brief description of Prigozhin’s mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here’s the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
Prigozhin’s rebellion wasn’t a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
Prigozhin’s objective was to draw Putin’s attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren’t demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin’s merits in taking Bakhmut (that’s why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin’s serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin’s reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn’t prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to “take the Kremlin” - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don’t believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
I don’t think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin’s address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin’s primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
And no, Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He’s now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.
putin has left the building… though
The stuff @GagHalfrunt posted below your comment is what I was reading, in particular the Stanovaya thread.
Putin’s word is also worth less than the breath of air it travels on and Prighozin must know this. I’m sure he’s also acutely aware of what happens to people who cross Putin for a whole lot less than marching on Moscow.
Prighozin is a dead man. He must know he’s a dead man. So the question I’d love to know the answer to is, “what did Putin tell him that would get him to stop his advance?” Or maybe, “what did the FSB tell his underlings that caused Prighozin to step aside.”
Threats to Prigozhin’s family, according to one story.
Meanwhile Wagner soldiers are furious.
All good points. That also makes me wonder then, why did he do it all? He must have known it would be a death sentence before he did it, unless he succeeded in his coup? So given that he’d only begin knowing he must succeed, I guess we’re back to “why did he take any deal from Putin”?
