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In Soviet Russia, mercenary army attacks you!
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Everything I read about Russian intrigue makes me think “This is just like the Klingon Empire from ‘Star Trek,’” — but of course it’s the other way around 
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Is this true or is this what they want us to think?
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Ah, but you forget the old Russian proverb. “A fall of a thousand storeys, begins without a single step.”
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Prigozhin and Lukashenko are reportedly longtime friends, so Lukashenko might believe that Wagner will be a loyal praetorian guard protecting him from the Belarusian people and disloyal elements in the security forces.
ETA:
Judging by Lukashenko’s claims, Wagner is indeed going to be based in Belarus. Luka wants them to help train the Belarusian army. “Nothing to be afraid of about them. We’re keeping an eye out” - he says.
I don’t envy those who put their bets on Wagner a few days ago, but we’ve also seen footage from the street of Rostov where people booed the police and cheered the mercenaries. Prigozhin still has some civil credit behind him that he may use in the future.
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It now seems pretty clear what the outcome of Prigozhin’s mutiny is. Putin sticks with Shoigu and Gerasimov, sends Prigozhin in exile to Belarus (with possibly a small part of his troops for ‘training purposes’) under the control of Lukashenko instead of imprisoning him for life and integrates the rest of Wagner PMC including all heavy equipment into the Russian Armed Forces.
Final score: Prigozhin is left powerless and can be kept under control through Lukashenko, Putin keeps his confidants close and gets the much needed extra men and heavy equipment (already promised to the Russian National Guard to boost the security of the inner circle) under his direct command.
Prigozhin wanted to play the big chieftain, but got played.
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Putin’s chief gets roasted!
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The theory that seemed most intuitive to me (as someone who knows fuckall about any of this) was the thread above that basically said "Prigozhin was pretty sure he was already a dead man, based on the movements of his enemies in Russia and Putin’s increasing ambivalence toward him and his group. He needed to create some leverage even to negotiate an exile. "
I mean, if pirate movies are any indication, starving a merc group of bullets, funds and meaningful objectives is a surefire way to start a mutiny within. Prigozhin very quickly showed everyone, including his own men, that he’s a figure who would be missed by the public.
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That makes sense. If he felt his life was in danger, then get in front of as many cameras as possible to make it difficult to kill him quietly. Like running to a crowded cafe when someone is threatening you.
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Maybe he believed others in the Russian military would join his “protest march”, and we saw on the ground Russian units simply deferred to Wagner troops, refusing to attack, but then not joining them either.
This popped up on my radar today and is pretty interesting.
It’s hard to tell how much this all weakened Putin, few of the elite could risk supporting Prighozin, and the way Russia’s military is being fragmented by the creation of similar Wagner-esque groups means no one group can challenge Putin and be reasonably sure of support from others in the military.
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I now realize that I was looking at things from the wrong angle when I asked this a few days ago. I was asking about what Lukashenko is getting from Putin, but it now seems clear that he is getting a lot out of this from Prizghozin. He wasn’t bailing Putin out. He was gaining a private army under his thumb.
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