Salafist Terrorism

Of course I do. Did you read the sources I linked earlier? I tried to get a mix in there, but ‘there are many factors’ was pretty universal.

Yes, that’s exactly what I got from them as well, there were many factors recognised, including religion. But when you listed your acceptable root causes, it didn’t contain that, so I assumed that you didn’t realise that it was one of them.

That doesn’t mean I’m going to pretend that we’re not stuck with the burdens left by reckless asshats who were more obsessed with ‘seeming tough’ than actually being responsible.

I’m not sure if many of America’s foreign policy failings are down to a desire to seem tough, ignoring the political rhetoric from Bush for a minute, there were many seemingly well thought out justifications going on at the time. It just turned out they weren’t well thought out enough (specifically the failure to recognise the level of animosity between the Sunni and Shia, and the lack of a reconstruction plan). I think in many ways their heart was in the right place (mixed with a large dose of selfish pragmatism).

Religion is not mandatory for something to be considered terrorism (there is a LOT of separatist terrorism that has nothing to do with religion), we were discussing the specific definition of terrorism at the time, remember? Religion couldn’t be part of that list because it’s not exclusive, whereas political impact is a universal component of terrorism, true? So that list wasn’t root causes, that list was the intent of actions which define terrorism.

The links were later and they did, of course, mention religion in many cases. It is often a factor and can even be a root cause …though it’s very unusual as a sole cause except in cult-type scenarios.[quote=“caze, post:142, topic:70098”]
I think in many ways their heart was in the right place (mixed with a large dose of selfish pragmatism).
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I wasn’t referring just to Bush&Co. I was referring to our interventions in foreign affairs since WWII. We have a history of letting reckless individuals in various service agencies dictate policies that result in creating blowback. It’s legitimately arguable that much of the chaos in the middle east over the past decades is related to blowback (not just against us, other nations have also been creating these problems…in fact we do get an unfair amount of the blame in many cases)

However, on Bush (and others). If you’re going to do something that might ruin the lives of innocents, especially those in other nations…you’re supposed to think VERY responsibly. The fact that these people are held to such a low standard honestly horrifies me. This isn’t ‘Hmm, should I buy a gas oven or an electric one?’. These are decisions that are amazingly risky and while we in America are only moderately impacted, the mess that poor civilians have to deal with in the Middle East is honestly pretty horrifying and we should be acknowledging that maybe history says we should never, ever mess with somebody else again unless we’re not just 100% sure but willing to go into overkill mode on the ‘being nice afterwards’ side of things.

You’ll note also that the most populous Muslim country (Indonesia) only has issues that are appropriate for the socioeconomic and political issues in the general region, which should also help indicate that in this particular case Religion is not the root cause. That sort of crazy only creates cults in places where things aren’t otherwise such a mess… it requires a more complex ecosystem to create what we’re calling Islamism today, just as it requires a more complex ecosystem to turn Buddhists, Christians, Jews, and even once a freaking QUAKER into a terrorist.

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Religion is not mandatory for something to be considered terrorism (there is a LOT of separatist terrorism that has nothing to do with religion), we were discussing the specific definition of terrorism at the time, remember? Religion couldn’t be part of that list because it’s not exclusive, whereas political impact is a universal component of terrorism, true? So that list wasn’t root causes, that list was the intent of actions which define terrorism.

ok, that’s fine. I never claimed it was a root cause of all terrorism of course.

The links were later and they did, of course, mention religion in many cases. It is often a factor and can even be a root cause …though it’s very unusual as a sole cause except in cult-type scenarios.

are we going to have to define cult now? is ISIS a cult?

You’ll note also that the most populous Muslim country (Indonesia) only has issues that are appropriate for the socioeconomic and political issues in the general region, which should also help indicate that in this particular case Religion is not the root cause.

They have suffered from religious terrorism though, and not all of it targeted at western targets (some of it targeted at reform-minded Islamic organisations and the police). Also, the fact that the country is 99% Sunni probably helps, and the fact that it is somewhat isolated from the rest of the Islamic world, in addition to the fact that there was a popular reform movement there to begin with to counter Salafism (since the early part of the 20th century).

Nah, but to be more specific in this case I’m talking about the isolated religious group that can form even when things are otherwise going great in the region. The sort that generally feeds off of disaffected middle-or-better class teens and such. Scientology fits…but the point is that you get the isolationist groups rather than the lashing-out-angry groups because the pool of people they acquire is more into escaping than changing the world and they specifically isolate their people from their support groups rather than deliberately leaving their people in their local areas to create more recruits.

That said better?

As for Indonesia…I think that the consensus is the same as what we’d both conclude if we used a bit of common sense on that one. Indonesia isn’t nearly as fucked up and they’re left to do their own thing. When your only enemies are related to people you know then you end up with boundary skirmishes and not explosions. You’re right that having a majority helps, but I’m sure you can verify yourself that those religious splinters happen during times of chaos.

I’ll bet eleventy million bucks that if China and Australia started meddling in Indonesia’s affairs long enough they’d split the Sunni and turn Indonesia into a disaster. The same would be true if the US was small enough to suffer a similar fate, soon we’d have our own IRA-type North vs. South bombers. Religion always comes into it when religion exists, but lots of us (self included) would join one side or another just because we had friends lives ruined by the Yankees/Rednecks/Hippies/Technocrats/Whatevers. It’s part of the human condition.

All I can say is that when you choose to explain what you are trying to say instead of complaining that other people are misinterpreting what you are saying, you say things that make sense.

I mean, I read this:

And I see how if I had read it that way, then I totally would have known what you meant. But reading through that opus I put forward, the point wasn’t that I was right. The point was that I could say what I said without willfully misinterpreting anything, and that being accused of willful misinterpretation was exhausting. People interpret things in different ways, no willfulness about it. And I feel like so much of this conversation was cracking through that assumption of willful misinterpretation that I just got fed up with it and didn’t want to do it anymore. If I appear to get something you said wrong, it would help if you just told me what you actually thought rather than telling me I shouldn’t be getting it wrong.

Paternalistic Attitude to the Middle East
Anyway, you said a racist attitude towards the middle east is a reasonable inference from the idea of blaming terrorism entirely on the foreign policy of the west. I don’t think that’s a reasonable inference. First of all, I think that not understanding our own motivations is a human flaw, not a brown-skinned human flaw - we’ve got names for dozens of cognitive biases and argumentative fallacies because we are all shit at thinking. Second, the focus on western action is because as a person who lives in a western country and votes for a western government, that is my responsibility - just like in a personal situation where there was a problem I would ask what I can do to make it better, not what someone else can do to make it better, because I don’t get to decide what other people do.

All of that being said, if you asked me: “Hey, western people dismissing the espoused values of middle eastern people and thinking they know what the middle eastern people really think… doesn’t that sound crazy racist?” I’d say, “Yes it does!” And just because I think that people’s agency could largely be replaced by slime mold without much functional difference doesn’t mean that you’d find very many other people who would think that - your guess that people saying middle eastern terrorism is all about western influence are themselves being paternalistic would probably be right a lot of time.

Security as a predictor of terrorism vs. Ideology
I believe that lack security (this isn’t the right word, I mean whether people can expect to avoid suffering and death from day to day, so availability of food, shelter, employment, but also safety from violence - but I don’t mean “security forces” on every corner) and injustice are the best predictors of terrorism, but that doesn’t mean I think that individuals are hopelessly mind controlled into terrorism because they can’t find a job. When you look at a large group of people, though, you can predict outcomes with bell curves - even if you can’t pick out which individuals go where. There are lots of people, some of them are more ready to get on board with killing other people as a way of dealing with anger than others. The more angry people are, the more people will cross that threshold. The more content people are, the fewer people will cross that threshold.

And I think anger is a fair assessment of what motivates people to kill other people. It’s not like they say, “Well, the statistical value of human life is $9M, can I do $9M of good by making a suicide attack? Well, using this spreadsheet and the value weighting provided by my ideology, yes I can!” (Then again, who knows, maybe that’s why engineers turn up in terrorism)

I’m not sure you disagree with any of this, but (from your answer to my wildfire example) it seems more like you are saying that religious propaganda is also part of that environmental condition that pushes people to violent acts.

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I thought it was interesting to read the interviews with Isis prisoners, which really highlighted the sociological aspect of this. I think people often use hypotheses and theories in a pseudoscientific way to describe these phenomena, when it’s often an system of overlapping narratives. People who watch Fox News often react strongly to events that do not affect them personally, which they only or primarily hear about from the media. You get the same on other parts of the political spectrum, or in religious groups (both official and unofficial). People listen to these groups for different reasons, but it’s not just the raw events that shape how they see the world and how they respond - their narrative could be heavily editorialised by other people’s agenda.

Back to the interviews with the prisoners - there’s a group-level Isis narrative that this is the holy war of the ages that will end in the death of most Isis fighters but the victory of Islam. Personal fulfilment, peace and security are not important. Coexistence with opposing viewpoints should be actively and violently opposed. On the other hand, you have a prisoner from the region who has been actively involved in pushing this narrative, yet his own personal narrative is “Islam is important to me, but if I had been able to have a normal childhood where I felt safe to go outside, and if I could feed my family right now, I wouldn’t have to keep doing this shit.” There are going to be some ideologues who you can’t reach by providing opportunity and security, but most people won’t be listening to them.

Ireland is still not united and a majority of Catholics on both sides of the border still want it to be, while Protestants mainly don’t (this is taken from a poll from this October):

On the other hand, their conviction isn’t very strong - more than half of the support drops off if uniting Ireland hurts their pockets, while 10% on both sides of the border would be happy to see a united Ireland if it meant lower taxes:

It looks like these irreconcilable differences of ideology aren’t always as important to people as peace and economic opportunity.

Having been taught history in Ireland, this next chart makes a lot of sense - even in my Protestant primary school (and of course later in my Catholic secondary school), the significance of the 1916 Rising was heavily emphasised and my Protestant headmistress wouldn’t commit on whether she thought the modern IRA was a force for good or bad. It may have been that she didn’t want to get in trouble with parents, but she just said that it was a matter of opinion. I think this is where ideology is relevant, as the interpretation of historical events can have a definite relevance to people’s current narrative.

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­DIE HERETIC!!!

Yeah, I would think that people will tend to think whatever they have to think to get by doing what they are doing. Just like that post about people’s reported subjective disgust at eating bugs being lower if they are offered larger sums of money - you have to prepare yourself for what you’re going to do to diffuse distress. So if you are going to be fighting and dying then you probably need to feel pretty righteous to psych yourself up for it. Take the person out of that arena and put them in one where they are going to be judged for fighting, and what does the person say? They give you a narrative that seems to shift responsibility off of them.

I happen to think that the post-capture explanation happens to align with the best explanation of terrorism, but that kind of makes sense. People often think that discussions of societal causes of violence can be used as excuses for individuals who commit violent acts because our idea of personal accountability is made for atomic consciousnesses of infinite willpower rather than for meat machines (that is, even if we were to conclusively prove that conscious thought was always afterthought and agency was an illusion, we’d still have to be accountable for our actions). So appealing to the best sociological explanation for your actions seems like a way to shift responsibility even if ultimately it can’t be.

I mean, another explanation is that I’m too nihilistic by a mile and that we ought to listen to people when they tell us what is motivating them. Fortunately for me, that would still lead us to believe that the individuals in ISIS are mostly motivated by poor security and that they’ve only latched onto the violent ideology of ISIS because it was what they felt they need to do at the time. Sort of like how I profess to care about work while at work.

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All I can say is that when you choose to explain what you are trying to say instead of complaining that other people are misinterpreting what you are saying, you say things that make sense.

Well, I can only apologise for assuming the worst in you. In my defence I was being worn down too many other misrepresentations/misunderstandings for it all to have been an accident (at best similarly uncharitable readings to which I gave you). It was starting to seem like a pattern, but I can see now why you thought what you thought.

I’m not sure you disagree with any of this, but (from your answer to my wildfire example) it seems more like you are saying that religious propaganda is also part of that environmental condition that pushes people to violent acts.

I believe what you are talking about can be used to explain some of what is going on, but not all of it, and that some form of ideology is a necessity as well. The particular form of ideology will also have a big impact on the form the violence takes as well - explicit doctrines lead to explicit forms of action, regardless of other factors.

No doubt there are many other important factors as well, personality types and other more individual characteristics. People have a tendency to generate models of behavior that are too naively deterministic, the world is a very complicated place, at times it seems to far too complicated to even begin to make sense of.

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