Solar energy will soon "undercut even the cheapest fossil fuels in many regions of the planet"

[jtf]

Not convinced. The solar industry is still in a megaslump of overcapacity that dates back to 2008. Panels should follow a commodity pricing cycle and we’re due for an uptick in prices for polysilicon, at least.

[Woodchuck45]

It’s great to have more and more renewables. But what’s meeting the baseload requirement?

[robulus]

@Woodchuck45

But what’s meeting the baseload requirement?

A huge pile of coal and CSG with a lot of powerful people unwilling to entertain any other notion of how it might be met.

Given the political will, smart grid technologies could be developed to meet baseload, but then who would be making the billions of dollars?

[milliefink]

@robulus

Given the political will, smart grid technologies could be developed to meet baseload, but then who would be making the billions of dollars?

Exactly. One of the biggest challenges with solar and other renewables is wrestling control of Energy Sales from fat-cat profiteers.

[robertbos]

Hydrogen has some serious shortcomings as a fuel that probably aren’t going away soon, but there’s always the possibility of those being overcome. I think some process that generates a dense, room temperature liquid fuel is more likely.

[rhallen]

@jtf

Not convinced. The solar industry is still in a megaslump of overcapacity that dates back to 2008. Panels should follow a commodity pricing cycle and we’re due for an uptick in prices for polysilicon, at least.

Overcapacity ended a year ago. Industry consolidation has given way to new plant construction. I’m not convinced that panels should follow a commodity pricing cycle – plenty of people are, but just as many aren’t, so it’s far from a settled question. Polysilicon prices have indeed increased over the course of the year, but there are enough new plants under construction that nobody expects a repeat of the last silicon shortage. Even the most pessimistic people don’t see the price rising above $30/kg, versus more than $400/kg on the spot market a few years ago.

[jtf]

Guess I’m out of date, although the latest capacity expansion announcements are barely a month old so I guess I’m not surprised I didn’t know. In any case you are certainly right that we’re not likely to see a polysilicon market that tight.

I come at this from the angle of the petrochemicals business, so of course I’m on the side of the boom-bust cyclers if only because that’s what I know. That being said I’d be eager to be proven wrong. The more scale and less busts the better.