While I haven’t read Dune, the longer I live the more I see the truths in the words, “Fear is the mind killer.”
Not sure whether I should like, or report.
True enough, but we’re still taking about completely manufactured, preventable causes. It’s not like automobile safety is off the table or anything like that.
Statistically…totally true, gun related deaths and suicides are a low hanging fruit…but they’re still a fruit that other people have successfully picked. No reason to pretend they don’t exist and just ‘go our merry ways’
Besides, it’s not like the poor black people aren’t relevant to the safety conversation.
Listening to George Carlin and he mentions 1000 people a year in the US accidentally kill themselves while jerking off and choking themselves. Huh. Well looking at google, that is the going estimate. Accidental gun deaths vary by year, but 500-800 is about average lately. Assuming the numbers to indeed shake out, your kid is more likely to kill himself accidentally jerking off than with a gun.
If you really cared about him you would buy him one of these.
You can combat accidents and suicide with education, health care, and awareness. Not laws. You think people wear seat belts now because we made a law?
Sure. Everyone should have basic gun safety. And knife safety. City dwellers are the ones least likely to be educated, encountering a gun for the first time in the “wild” with no guidance and think it’s like TV. Vs like where I came from many people hunted, target shot, was in boy scouts or 4-H. Hell I took rifle shooting in College even.
So basically, yes.
So your fix is to provide a token solution for accidental deaths and ignore suicides and homicides? I’m all for mandatory QUALITY training, but that doesn’t help with far too many of these deaths, nor does it help with the ‘trained’ people who still are prone to acting like idiots (i.e. humans)
Another approach: one could NOT deliberately limit our options and acknowledge the possibility that maybe also having lots of lying around might be somehow related to a solveable problem?
Have you forgotten this so quickly? The R-squared is strong here and you can’t just ignore it.
When those laws were passed there was also a massive push in education and awareness. When people finally realized that seat belts really saved a lot of lives, the paradigm shifted and use went up. Do YOU personally buckle because it is prudent or the law? If there was no law would you be like, ugh, finally! I don’t have to wear this stupid thing!
I am not ignoring anything. I was replying to the statement that poor blacks should be included in the safety conversation, which they should. Thus I was talking about safety to prevent accidents. Safety training doesn’t stop murder or suicides.
Certainly access and number of owners is a factor, especially when it comes to suicides and accidents. The more cars on the road, the more accidents. The more gun owners the more gun accidents. The more gun owners the more likelihood if one becomes suicidal they will have a gun around. That is all commons sense.
The problem with your chart is there is a LOT going on here with no analysis and break down. Let’s look at the outlier there, Wyoming. Hoo boy - looks like the wild west with the gun death rate. I bet you better keep your head down driving through there.
But wait, let’s look up the numbers. Oh - in 2010 they had 8 murders in Wyoming, 5 of them with guns. So a state where 60%+ people own guns, only managed to murder 5 people with them. That is .9 per 100,000 people, way below average.
2015 saw 129 suicides for a rate of 21.36 per 100,000 people - that is a bit more than Japan. I can’t tell how many of those were via firearm, but let’s just assume all most of them, as that would line up with MJ’s Chart. I am sure there are accidents in there too, but I can’t easily find it and get back to work.
So anyway, point is, one needs to analyze data. Yes ownership plays a factor, especially with suicides and accidents. CRIME is a more complex. CA is low on their, but their gun murders is 3.4. I don’t see DC on the chart but wiki says only 3.6% ownership , but it has an insane 16.5 rate and very strict gun laws.
So what the studies actually say isn’t important and we should just go with anecdotes again? You realize there’s a reason why people do all this complex analysis and they don’t just pull things out of their butts, right?
Yes, further analysis of data always pays off. Nickle and diming data however does not, surely you see a parallel to many of the climate change and other conversations here with your statements, right? You still can’t disregard a chart with a strong R-squared. It’s not about the tiny outliers, it’s about how the general group adheres to the predictive band. I wouldn’t be pointing it out to you if didn’t have some relevance.
Are you willing to defer to data analysts and studies done by professionals then? Because there are people who do a lot of work and take these things into account (and a lot more, honestly you’re at the first tier of seven here), and there are plenty of freely available journal articles, NBER reports, and the like on the subject…and many of these individuals and groups are plain old statistical analysts and not beholden to one political side or the other.
What exactly are you arguing here? Seat belts save lives. Education saves lives. Making it a law… maybe helps? Per the CDC PDF you linked to:
“Seat belt use is on the rise. Laws, education, and technology have increased seat belt use from 11% in 1981 to nearly 85% in 2010, saving hundreds of thousands of lives. Yet, about 1 in 7 people still don’t buckle up.”
So right there, it mentions the education and technology portion (better belts, more comfortable belts, annoying bings when you don’t buckle, etc.) Yet despite all that 1 in 7 are ignoring the laws/safety benefits. You can lead a horse to water sort of thing. How do you get it to 100% Double the law penalty? Seat belt laws are rarely enforced as is. It is usually tacked on when someone is caught speeding. What is the motivation most people have for seat belts? Fine avoidance or safety?
Your CDC shows the state with primary, secondary, and no seat belt laws. Below I will link to seat belt use per state. I can’t tell looking at it if there is a direct correlation, but like Nevada has only a 2ndary law and has a very high usage rate, 94.8%, Arkansas has a primary law but only 76.7% usage rate, and New Hampshire (assuming it still has no law) is low, but still has 73% usage rate. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiXmobAwZvKAhVL1xoKHdiZBt4QFggdMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov%2FPubs%2F812030.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHZ4njJ4bQ3RnLxGATommioT8MRaQ&sig2=abIQe3YKTtmUlWCyS-vfWQ
My point is you can promote safety and education with out making it a law. We do it with all sorts of things.
I am always interested in more data.
Are you saying you read the linked journal documents and concluded that the laws weren’t a useful factor??
Please answer this, because if your answer is ‘the laws weren’t beneficial’ then you’re not even trying. You’re cherry picking, which completely defeats the point of data.
I’ve more than met you halfway here. I’ve agreed that firearm deaths aren’t statistically a major cause of deaths in the US and pointed out the same. I’ve pointed out that they are simply a low hanging fruit. I’ve even agreed that training and such are positive things. However you seem to be putting up a big stop sign and that’s just not useful this sort of conversationl
No - sorry, I don’t have time to read something so large and intense right now. But fair enough, I will try to this weekend. I am sure it is a factor, but, and maybe I am an optimist, I just think education and awareness doesn’t require laws.
Though I don’t know how this relates to gun safety per se. IIRC the new NY SAFE act requires safe storage of fire arms. So maybe we can see a dip in accidents in the next few years.
Well, don’t try to debunk something you haven’t read, silly.
And statistics say that laws consistently help with such things, again, they’re better than anecdotes and optimism.
We’re being forced to take an indirect one because you’re blocking the direct one.
[quote=“William_Holz, post:343, topic:71595, full:true”]Another approach: one could NOT deliberately limit our options and acknowledge the possibility that maybe also having lots of lying around might be somehow related to a solveable problem?
Have you forgotten this so quickly? The R-squared is strong here and you can’t just ignore it
That’s one of the favorite misleading charts used by people who start from the assumption that the problem is “gun deaths”, and who want to conflate suicides with murders and make it seem like states with high rates of legal gun ownership have high rates of gun violence.
But look what happens when you chart “gun murders” against “gun ownership”:
Strange, the correlation disappears when suicide is removed? That doesn’t stop Vox, Mother Jones et al from deliberately conflating “gun violence” with self-harm in order to give the perception that people in states with high rates of legal firearms ownership are more likely to unlawfully shoot others.
As always, the “more gun restrictions now!” argument is never about actual rates of violent crime, rather it’s all about perception.
Are you arguing that suicide is not relevant and an increased rate of death by suicide is not worth preventing?
I wouldn’t go there if I were you. That one’s a little personal and while I’m a professional and can overcome such things, it will raise the stakes somewhat.
Also: It’s a bullshit argument. Those deaths matter too, and there’s a strong correlation with firearm availability and suicide success rate.
I’m arguing against advocacy journalists with a predetermined political agenda intentionally using misleading charts with terminology like “gun violence” (mostly suicides) to mislead readers into a false perception of risk.
Yes, suicide prevention is relevant, but it also complicates the discussion, in part because the degree and type of firearms restrictions that would effectively eliminate gun suicides come pretty darn close to the “take all your guns” position that so many here are quick to claim is not on the agenda.
Torturing the data until they confess to whatever you accuse them from is fairly common.
That is fair.
To clarify, as mentioned above I’m aware that firearm deaths are far less significant statistically than a number of other preventable causes of death (transport, poisoning, etc.) and I am not one of those journalists. I’m fully aware of the nature of what I am discussing and as somebody who analyzes data professionally I’m also capable of being wrong and learning from such things. I am, however, less prone to such things than your average citizen because I spent most of that time working in healthcare. So human-life-specific stuff I’m pretty solid with.
Is that fair as well?
This is some truth to that argument for a subset of the suicides in question, however part of our ‘ramp’ has been traced to ready availability and ease-of-acquisition. I can at least demonstrate how anomalous our own numbers here in the U.S. are and how they also correlate with firearm availability if you’re interested. It’s a pretty commonly studied issue and one of the few where we have sufficient data to make epidemiological analyses despite the laws restricting collecting firearm data.
Would it also help if I observed that I think certain things are conflated in ways that are detrimental to those of us who think guns can actually be kind of cool? For example I think that our current gun ranges are absurdly lame and I’d prefer if we had the opportunity to shoot dead trees with miniguns until they caught fire?
I personally think that option should be included in any real solutions. Guns are kind of fun sometimes.
I’m not ‘anti-gun’, I’m ‘anti-stupid-death-and-needlessly-ruined-lives’, and that covers all the bases (cars, poisonings, it’s a huge list). I acknowledge that I, like all humans, am a walking Darwin award waiting to happen and we’d be better off if it was easier to do more fun safer things and harder to do things that ruined lives.
Yes, actually. Seat belts existed long before there were laws requiring their usage. The laws significantly improved usage, with improved survival rates to show for it.
I think the biggest reason against mandatory insurance is that it’ll effectively never pay out. Essentially all insurance disclaims payout if the insured party intentionally commits the act that would cause the payout. This is why insurance doesn’t pay out for suicides.
You only get a payout if someone is injuried by accident, which is a very small proportion of firearm injuries.
Up thread, several of us were explicitly discussing the situation where someone other than the official gun buyer did wrong with the bought gun.
Perhaps I’ve wrongly incanted the word “insurance.” Perhaps it’s a Tax, as CJ Roberts has modeled. Perhaps it’s a criminal liability, as hungryjoe has offered.
Clearly, the correct framing is tricky. And possibly unfeasible as law at this time. But I’ve not yet heard a convincing argument that there is a major blocker to create some sort of scheme to allocate the cost for the most at-risk firearms in the hands of those who have the firearms in their hands.