The Carbon Bubble is about to pop

For solar PV, panels produce anywhere from 5.9 to 60 kWh for each kWh needed to produce them. For wind it is 20 to 50

Theoretically. Empirically, these numbers are far lower.

Empirically, the low ends of those ranges seem to be correct. Wind is about 18 and solar is about 6.

However, EROEI analyses do not take into account all system-wide costs. To some extent, EROEI is an apples to oranges comparison. Life-cycle analyses are better, but still not complete apples-to-apples comparisons.

Solar and wind are intermittent, which means:

  1. To guarantee enough capacity at peak times, they need to be WAAAAAY overbuilt. If you are only generating 20% max wind output at peak times then you need 5X your peak capacity to be built out. That’s a huge amount of infrastructure!
  2. OOOOOR you can store it. But you have to build a hell of a lot of batteries, which is still a huge amount of infrastructure.

If you take this into account in the EROEI calculations, wind and solar are suddenly the most expensive energy sources on earth.

By comparison, the EROEI for mining fossil fuels ranges from 5-40, with coal on the high and and oil and gas near the low end. I.e. the same range as renewables.

Wikipedia seems to think those numbers are waaaay low. I’m going to have to ask you to cite sources at this point. Seems like you might be using some “alternative facts” here. Even so, the figures you cite go from comparable to solar’s best case to twice as good as wind’s best case.

Are you sure your wind EROEI figures for wind are factoring in the energy required to mine the aluminum, the energy required to smelt it, and the energy required to extract all the fossil fuels needed to generate that energy? How about ship it and set it up? They are usually put on hilltops, and they’re quite heavy.

You’re argument does not hold water even on its own terms.

My argument is: building more solar panels and electric cars will increase the price of fossil fuels in the short and medium term.

How did anything you’ve said disprove that? How did anything you’ve written even address that?

In reality, not all the energy needed to make PV and wind turbines comes from fossil fuels, and the proportion decreases over time as the energy mix shifts toward renewables.

The mix has only significantly “shifted towards renewables” if you zoom in on the Netherlands or the USA or other rich countries. If you look on a global basis, the proportion of energy derived from hydroelectric excluding nuclear is barely a blip.