U.S. Navy sailors banned from drinking in Japan

[anon68952647]

Risk:Diplomacy::Heck:Hell

[davejenk1ns]

Potato-chan, you’re basic understandings were correct for pre-war Japan: strict isolationism was rampant up until 1873 or so, then it flipped the other way: import all knowledge, but-- as you say-- quick to change actions but long to keep the isolationist attitude. Present Japan is only isolationist in terms of immigration now, but otherwise tries very hard to put on a veneer of internationalism (they have been pining for a permanent seat on the UN security council for 50 years).

Japan depends on trade much more than any other nation: there are no native oil reserves, and the last of the coal was dug up in the 1960s (that island where Javier Bardem battled James Bond was the last mine). Japanese wealth almost wholly relies on manufactured goods and open sea lanes. This is why the Chinese actions in the South China Sea freaks them out so much: it directly threatens almost all their inbound trade, and almost half of their outbound trade, not to mention the direct threat of loss of sovereignty over some islands just off the coast of Taiwan.

In the end, I predict the Japanese government will continue to slowly skirt around Article 9, work closely with the US Navy, the Australian Navy, the Philippines and the Indians, and even make nice with the South Koreans (especially after the DPRK collapses within 7-10 years). The US Naval bases in Okinawa will stay, but perhaps under much more strict rules, but the bulk of the US Marines will be back-ported to Guam.

[potato]

I’m used to living in a gigantic country in terms of landmass, so I didn’t really consider how untenable a completely isolationist sentiment would be for them today (or really, any first world country, mine included). I was applying what I had heard about 1800s Japan to the country now. It would seem from your response that there is a strong desire for peace in the country now, but there’s considerable debate between the “isolationists” and “warmongers” about the best way to achieve it in the long-term, like pre-WWII America. I meant “isolationists” in the antiquated sense, which still makes it a dumb point.

Also, you do point out a good political reason why we may want to lessen our power in the country. I read a lot of American fiction about Japan back in the 80’s. I imagined there likely could be a strong political movement that is actively anti-american or anti-west, perhaps out of resentment for seven decades ago or our occupation since then. If they’re more concerned about China, it may make political sense to give them leeway to take action.

Thanks for your polite response. One of these days I’d like to hear why the DRPK will collapse within the decade.

Also, I totally recognized that filming location from Artificial Owl!

[Snowlark]

@RogerStrong

The US makes a lousy world police. On the other hand they make an excellent SWAT team whenever they’re called upon, which is often.

The problem is that many of those calls originate from within the U.S.

[Snowlark]

@davejenk1ns

Present Japan is only isolationist in terms of immigration now, but otherwise tries very hard to put on a veneer of internationalism (they have been pining for a permanent seat on the UN security council for 50 years).
[…]
Japan depends on trade much more than any other nation: there are no native oil reserves, and the last of the coal was dug up in the 1960s
[…]
Japanese wealth almost wholly relies on manufactured goods and open sea lanes. This is why the Chinese actions in the South China Sea freaks them out so much: it directly threatens almost all their inbound trade, and almost half of their outbound trade, not to mention the direct threat of loss of sovereignty over some islands just off the coast of Taiwan.

So, basically, Japan is playing real-world Civ on Deity level as Venice.

[davejenk1ns]

@Snowlark

Japan is playing real-world Civ on Deity level as Venice.

Hence the insistence on retaining the Emperor as a titular head of state.

[enso]

@RogerStrong

would have little choice but to rebuild its military.

They could call it a “Self Defense Force” (oh, wait, they did).

[enso]

@Mangochin

As Okinawa is one of the few islands in Japan with anything resembling a sub-tropical environment with decent touristy beaches, there is resentment over lack of ability to “resort-ify” the island and bring in more tourists. .

Do Okinawans consider themselves to actually be Japanese? Do Japanese in Japan think Okinawans are Japanese? I’ve often wondered given history.

[Israel_B]

@Trenien

the JSDF is actually one of the most advanced army in the world (both in numbers and technology). In other words, Japan could perfectly insure its own defense if its politicians were willing to get rid of the US bases

By neither numbers nor technology is the JSDF a world leader. As per local talk, no Japanese have seen any combat action since some very small unofficialls were in Vietnam so everyone is untested.

According to people I know over in Ichigaya there is a palpable sense of dissatisfaction with local R&D and with the fact that the JSDF have gives the US valid reasons not to share the best miltech. That and the demographic crunch plus major societal change has really affected enrollment.

[Israel_B]

@anon61221983

everyone is happy with the arrangement

Except the PRC & South Korea…

[Israel_B]

@Mangochin

They are more or less a colonial conquest

That seems to be more the view of the western left & the PRC than anyone I’ve known from Okinawa

[anon61221983]

Politics there are tricky, but the PRC is not going to be happy no matter what we do, and SK doesn’t have many other options, given their northern border issues…

[Israel_B]

@davejenk1ns

The isolationists (left wing parties) are the opposite of the war mongers (right wing)

What party on the right here would qualify as “war mongers” in your opinion?

[Israel_B]

@potato

I imagined there likely could be a strong political movement that is actively anti-american or anti-west, perhaps out of resentment for seven decades ago or our occupation since then.

There is a great non fiction book called Embracing Defeat, check it out.

[potato]

I’m in the process of reading all the excerpts I can find online. So far it’s very well written.

[Trenien]

Wow!
I wonder what you consider a world leader should be?
The JSDF has close to 250000 personnel (without counting the reserve), and they do have very modern tech at their disposal. Your arguing them not having “the best US mil tech” suggests that no army in the world could be advanced enough without such. Especially when you consider that the “best US miltech” lately includes things such as the f35.

[Bobo]

No worries, that’s what the cute little kids that befriend overgrown fire spouting turtles are for. Get enough of them, and you can fight off any monster.

[StrawBoss]

They can’t even drink in their places of residence.

[anon68952647]

@StrawBoss

They can’t even drink in their places of residence.

Amazingly (sarcasm) when you’re active duty you don’t have all your rights. All you have are privileges and duties (not sarcasm).

[anotherone]

And not just available land, arable land. Okinawa was Japan’s bread basket before the war. Now, our bases take up most of that arable land and Okinawa has suffered a great economic downturn as a result.