Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2019/10/02/uk-prime-minister-proposes-one.html
Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2019/10/02/uk-prime-minister-proposes-one.html
Which is to say that Boris’s plan is designed to be rejected. It’s a stalking horse for the no-deal “option” that would benefit the very few at the expense of all others.
There is no deal that will work. None. The Irish border issue precludes one. There’s no point in offering a “Brexit with deal” option on a second referendum (which Corbyn still won’t demand, with four weeks to go).
The idiocy and lack of leadership on display continues to be stunning, and I’m not in the UK.
The deal worked. That was it. Tories renaged on the deal they negotiated.
This is not a deal, not a serious offer, and not a solution.
A DMZ across Ireland with three borders and 600,000 living in no mans land? It’s a fucking sick joke.
It only has a serious offer on agricultural goods because the DUP depends on the farm owner vote. Landowner elite.
I think Cobryn is being pretty canny: he’s going to demand a referendum after the current no-deal government has unambiguously failed and hung itself out to dry on its own petard. Given the absurdity of taking the 2016 election results, “leave the EU, but critically without any specification of what precisely that means, how, etc.” as policy mandate, I think he is wise not to rush in to second referendum.
Caveat: not in the UK, don’t have a dog in this race, armchair punditry, etc.
An EEA/EFTA type of hybrid compromise Brexit might have passed Parliament - with opposition support - but May wanted to own a “Red White and Blue Brexit” for the Tories - and the extremists in her own party hung her for it, as even that wasn’t Brexity enough for them.
The EU rules for declaring overseas income are drawing close for the money behind Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson - so cut and run (while shorting the pound) is the plan - this helps shift the blame.
If that’s not manifestly evident already, I don’t know what it will take (again, with 4 weeks to go until the next deadline). This has been going on for three years.
If his main goal is to bring down the de Pfeffel government, then Corbyn should call for a vote of no confidence and get on with it. If he wins, call for a second referendum: no deal Brexit or Remain.
That is more or less precisely the plan, as I understand it, only he wants PM Unlaughable Bumblefuck’s no-deal end game exposed (again: unambiguously), and carried through to the point where the Benn Act comes into play in just over two weeks. When the no-confidence vote comes, Corbyn & Labour will be in a position to say “the Conservatives have demonstrated only that they can accomplish a widely unappetizing no-deal Brexit”.
I am uncertain about Corbyn’s personal preferences, but kinda gather he’d prefer to see the UK in a situation akin to Norway’s relationship with the EU. Not sure if, given Ireland, that is feasible. I also kinda gather that he’d not mind terribly if the UK remained in the EU.
Caveat: still not in the UK, no dog in race, armchair punditry.
Corbyn wants a soft-ish Brexit and thinks that he can still get it, so he avoids saying where he would stand if it came down to no deal versus remain.
Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake and all that.
So he’s going to demand a referendum after they crash out at the end of the month?
Cause the current government has already pretty much failed in the most literal sense. Johnson’s majority is gone and they’re teetering on the edge of a forced election.
Corbyn’s not going to do shit, guys a life long Euroskeptic. And his opposition to another referendum is purportedly what’s been preventing it from happening. His cagey probably pro brexit but wont say it position seems to be a big part of what’s prevented an anti-brexit coalition from taking over.
The Benn Act prohibits the PM from crashing the UK out at the end of the month, forcing an extension of Article 50 if a deal has not been negotiated by the 17th-18th of October. If, as Boris seems intent on procuring, no deal is in the offing, then:
- A vote of no confidence is called (and almost certainly won) before the end of the month. Seems likely Corbyn would become a caretaker PM of a unity government that would form solely to resolve Brexit (Jo Swindon’s recent posturing aside: there is simply no one else with a sizeable enough backing to take the caretaker PM role at present; unless Jo Swindon is secretly a no-deal Brexiter, who wants to force the UK out without seeming to do so, by sticking to a ‘Not Corbyn’ position).
- Article 50 is extended bilaterally, or, if the EU is unwilling to play along, Article 50 is revoked (UK can do the latter unilaterally as I understand it) as an alternative to crashing out with no deal.
- A referendum is then mooted between (1) remain in EU, and (2) at least one explicitly articulated leave plan which precludes a no-deal exit. Bonus for Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP: Conservatives are seen as utter non-starters going forward with Brexit/remain process.
Caveat: Not in UK, no dog in race, armchair punditry
I hope that Ireland unites geopolitically because of this. A divided Ireland is a vestige of a time that has long since decayed.
As noted there in article 2. This isn’t a unilateral thing. How and whether that comes off is down entirely to how interested in kicking the can down the road the EU is, and potentially how well revoking article 50 plays within the UK (I’m gonna assume not well on that front).
This particular law is predicated on the same assumptions as the rest of this mess. That the UK can dictate terms to other nations. They can’t. I don’t think that law solves the problem, and I don’t think it prevents a no deal if the EU gets sick of their shit.
But my point was more that Corbyn wants brexit. And for all the Corbyn will save the day claims, and there seems to be a new one every month, he mostly seems to have stood in the way of solutions.
I’m looking at this from the outside as well. Though I do have a horse in the race as my family in Ireland stands to get screwed 6 ways from Sunday so I’ve been following it closely. But looking at it from the outside every approach to the subject in the UK on either side seems to have been predicated on the same assumption.
That the UK’s internal decisions will carry weight and bind both the EU and the other nations involved. But reality doesn’t work that way. And sooner or later they’re going to run out of runway. All those other parties won’t agree to further extensions and dicking around. They get pissed enough they’ll do something to prevent the revocation of article 50. So if you want a total failure, that’s some how more of a total failure than the current total failure. Then “Europe decides to deliberately fuck the UK” sounds like it.
Eta: I have had a lot of psuedofed today. So sorry if that comes off delirious or angry.
I really hope that’s how it plays out. The problems are that: de Pfeffel is probably plotting right now how to circumvent the Benn Act in some slimy way so he can run out the clock; Corbyn wants to be more than a short-term caretaker, and he’s a Eurosceptic; there isn’t any Leave plan that would preclude a no-deal Brexit because of Ireland (which is why it should be a choice between Remain or No-Deal Leave). The EU also has to reject whatever nonsense BoJo is offering, but I think they will.
When I saw the map, I was absolutely certain this was someone’s parody, not the real thing, but… nope:
It’s a calculated insult. It’s deliberately offensive. You should see how it maps onto electoral seats to get an idea of just how much an affront it is.
It also seeks to legislate in a foreign jurisdiction (which is again a particularly offensive way to read “taking back our sovereignty”).
But at least it does lay out at last their great economic plan for britain: VAT fraud with a side of smuggling, money laundering and people trafficking.
Much as the EU would like to accommodate those seeking an extension of article 50, they are not in control, don’t seem likely to be, and I don’t think there is any patience with the obvious lack of good will on the part of the Tories.
Three years and this shit.
That is so much land for an island that small… and @robertmckenna is right about legislating in a foreign jurisdiction…
None of this is acceptable, and Johnson has to be aware of that fact.
It looks like a bloated, two-headed worm with sharp teeth. Just the kind of monstrosity you’d expect the Tories under de Pfeffel to birth.
I don’t wholly agree with you there. The Benn Act is specifically about requesting an extension, not about imposing one.
Although it’s certainly true that we (yes, I am in the UK) are currently halfway out across the chasm having failed to notice that there is no bridge, and it may well be far too late for anything to be fixed in any shape or form.
But that’s quite apart from the complete horror show that awaits us should it actually happen, and I’m not talking about the physical problems which have been discussed a lot. There’s been little analysis in the wider media of how - or even if - our legislative system would be able to cope with any form of Brexit - there are countless bills that would need to be introduced, scrutinised and possibly not passed given the current political climate, and that’s not taking account of the easy bit - checking every single piece of existing EU related legislation and seeing if it needs to be retained or rejected. That’s a recipe for utter chaos just there. For example, at least four crucial Brexit related bills almost fell when the prorogation-that-never-was happened last month because there are things that need to be done to stop that which weren’t. Yeah, we’re the “mother” of Parliaments right now, that’s certain.
Haven’t the Government given themselves sweeping Henry VIII powers for precisely that reason? (For clarity, I do not consider this a good thing.)