Vaccine shortage may soon become an overabundance

Johnson & Johnson marketing department thinks that they have some interesting advertising potential if they will be the first ones to make a vaccine certified for kids.

Here’s one. They all see a reduction in antibody efficacy against certain variants, but they’re all good enough that they prevent the worst outcomes, and variants don’t seem to do well at evading T-cells. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/02/vaccines-should-end-the-pandemic-despite-the-variants-say-experts/

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In my box of memorabilia is a vaccine passport from when I was a toddler. I’m marked down as vaccinated against smallpox, among other things.

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They’re going to return in both paper and digital format. I expect that a digital QR code will be available through an official state or federal app, and will also be linked to actual passports, driving licences, and other official IDs.

I’m hoping that the OECD countries (at the very least) will agree on some kind of international standard that allows for cross-border verification of vaccination status. If the travel and hospitality industries aren’t pushing for this they’re fools.

As to already-confirmed fools, get ready for a new wave of NWO conspiracy theories from right-wingers about how the QR codes are the mark of Satan and how the vaccine passports will represent acceptance of citizenship in a commie one-world government.

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This 100%! If the developing world is vaccinate, we could potentially eradicate the virus.

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Absolutely.

Additionally, we need to stop treating things like healthcare, food, and housing as commodities subjected to market forces.

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Heck, the vaccines were developed within about a day of the virus genome being made public. That raises a question: how much of that testing time can be shaved off for a new mRNA vaccine? But a major problem is that even if there’s no testing time required at all, it still needs to be manufactured and distributed. Given that Texas and Mississippi are now headed towards mass infections, it’s quite likely new variants will be cropping up faster than you can make and distribute the vaccines for the previous variants.

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Boosters for variants are already in a much faster approval pipeline. Once the platform is judged safe and effective, minor tweaks don’t need as much evidence to show that they will be too. Moderna is testing a 1/4 dose booster, which, if it works, will effectively quadruple manufacturing. It’ll still need to be distributed (if necessary) but it should be able to be targeted to regions where the variant is prevalent.

Honestly, though, people worry too much about variants. If scientists start calling something COVID-21, start worrying; until then, the evidence says our current vaccination plan will do the job.

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Will it, though? Covid requires high immunization numbers for herd immunity, and in between the effectiveness of the vaccines in general, the effectiveness vs. the variants, and the huge number of people refusing vaccines, we’re very, very far from the vaccination plan doing the job. (That last factor alone scuppers the plan.)

Plus, I know there’s a lot of worry about recombinations, which is already happening with new variants, no less.

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Yes, the current vaccination plan will do the job.

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You mean assuming people actually agree to get vaccinated? That’s going to be a challenge.

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Vaccine hesitancy has been dropping across the board and will continue to do so as people see their neighbors vaccinated with no ill effects and advocacy efforts roll out. 70% are already willing; that’ll probably go up to 75-80%. 30% of people already have some immunity from prior infection, We don’t need to reach 100% herd immunity for COVID to become the flu.

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