Well, we haven’t been into direct conquest for a while (preferring the establishment of friendly regimes instead), but James K. Polk did seize the Southwest from Mexico in 1848 (there’s even a TMBG song although it has a few inaccuracies).
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Yeah this is actually STILL a thing here in Alberta where you have some right-wing morons who want just our landlocked province to secede from Canada - my neighbor being one.
These folks are what you would expect - freedom convoy, antivax, low education simpletons who stridently fly our nations flag but don’t see the irony. They say they are patriots but want to leave the country due to all the ‘crooked liberals’.
Le Sigh.
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I grew up in Leduc brother, i know exactly the guy.
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It’s not as if Venezuela has the resources either, and of course their government is notoriously untrustworthy and incompetent. Guyanans would have to be almost as dumb as Maduro and his lot to agree to any kind of a deal with the Chavista scum.
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Ok, let see. I dont post a lot, but if there is anything about Venezuela I usually post something. I was born in Caracas, but I’ve been away for decades now. But on the other hand I keep my eyes on news from the country - actually from the country, not about the country by somebody outside.
My feeling is that this thing is 100% about internal Venezuelan politics, and all the noise is just that, noise. A production. A show.
In October, the opposition had a primary election, organized by themselves because the National Election Council (CNE, managed by Chavistas) first collapsed due to a string of resignations, then reformed and said ok, we will help but move the date… and at that point they had all set and well, is not like the CNE is trustworthy. It movilized something like 2,5 million voters, with doesnt look like much with 20 million possible voters, but with all the problems, threats, confusion, etc that the Chavistas did, it was a bit of a success. Funny enough, in part because precisely by being done without support they had few polling stations, and those saw good queues of people wanting to vote.
At the time they already announced the Esequibo referendum thing, and basically after the opposition primary it quickly became clear they wanted a show of electoral muscle, to say that Maduro can move people to vote for something - even if it is something that more or less all Venezuelans agree: that the Esequibo is Venezuelan is more or less an article of faith… but not precisely an article of passionate faith. Thus, the referendum, using all the voting infrastructure of a normal election, looked like a massive flop even if probably it movilized 2 million voters… taking into account the very public campaings of Chavista bosses saying that public employees have to go and vote and send them a photo of themselves doing it, or else. But again, nobody saw in the street any kind of actual big queues that would be there if half the electorate went to vote. But given that reality is not a problem for Chavismo, well, they say its 10 million votes, and thats it.
And then they started all this circus. But if you look at it, there are a ton of elements that show that the main thrust of this is internal. Like, right out of the bat, they have issued arrest warrants for people in the team of the opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado, saying they got money from ExxonMobil to betray the country and sabotage the referendum. And the rushed “Law for the Defense of the Guayana Esequiba” states that anybody supporting “Guyana’s position” is going to be barred from running from office. Now, Maria Corina is in “theory” already barred from office, there has been US “carrots” lately with sanction relief that supposedly will depend on stuff like freeing political prisoners (the score was 5 free but 2 new ones made, and that before all this) and elections in which the opposition can participate with their candidates. And while Maria Corina, again, as usual in Venezuela, considers the Esequibo Venezuelan, her position so far has been forget this stupid referendum, and lets go to the ICJ to litigate this… which is Guyana’s position.
The rest is mostly on the level of a “virtual” annexation that doesnt get to annex anything. New maps in schools with the territory, that has always been in the maps stripped with a “Zone in Reclamation” label, now having nothing of that. The creation of a “Zone of Defense” and some administrative stuff in Tumeremo, a town like 100 Km from the border. The idea that they will do a census and give Venezuelan ID cards to people in the Esequibo … that go to Tumeremo.
So, again, my view is that we will see a lot of show while the actual meat of the thing is internal. Meanwhile they will keep doing “virtual” stuff from inside Venezuelan borders. Like that announcement of “immediatly” giving consessions to exploit resources there (like, who is going to take that offer), or the announcement of giving companies 3 months to leave operations in the region or they will be banned from business with Venezuela, which is going to be “funny” cause well, that includes the Chinese CNOOC, who has business in both Venezuela and this particular oil block in the disputed waters. And Chevron, who so far was scheduled to return with more force to Venezuela if the sanction relief keeps going. So, looks like shooting themselves in the foot.
With all that said, I cant say if they are going to be as stupid as to commit suicide in the Argentinian Junta style. I dont think so, they are thugs, but so far they have demonstrated a very keen survival instinct. So, again, I dont think this is going to move from this “virtual annexation” into reality, I think this is all for internal motives… but if I’m wrong then Jesus Christ, what a shitshow is coming.
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Thing is, Maduro has everything to lose, Putin, nothing. How can a politician of all people, not recognize that?
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I agree with Mr. @JesusCouto. This confusion of annexation was for consumption in the domestic market. I doubt he has the courage to attempt an invasion.
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President Lula is thinking about breaking relations with Mr. Maduro, if the Bolivarian president invades and annexes Guyanese territory. According to the Brazilian branch of the US news channel CNN, Lula is less skeptical than the Itamaraty, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, about Maduro’s intentions and the possibility of a war in northern Brazil.
On the other hand, Brazilian Diplomacy is committed to dialogue between nations to resolve this crisis.
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Because Maduro is an incompetent half-wit, and that may be overestimating him by a lot.
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But
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There’s a whole comic book series based on that premise.
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The Brazilians have a fleet of very new, very capable Saab JAS 39 Gripens that they would love to try out in something other than war games. The Venezuelan military certainly aren’t going through Brazil to get to Guyanan oil.
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