One of the problems with the plan is that we don’t currently have the ability for large scale testings. We are lacking testing kits/swabs, reagents and consumables to run the tests and equipment/PCR machines set up and ready to use at testing companies. It is not clear when we will be able to roll out large scale testing for essential workers.
Also the testing we do have is not necessarily accurate as it is not clear what the false positive and negative rates are. Over time we should have better estimates of those numbers and we can work with the uncertainty or error in the tests but it is something we have to account for.
It is also not clear if we will be able to make better tests both for active infections and post infection antibody tests. I hope the scientific/medical community can but its not a done deal and there are technical aspects that can make good/accurate testing difficult.
As for making a vaccine there is no guarantee of success cf the HIV vaccine or lack thereof.
One last thought is that we should be wary of privilege given to “acclimatized citizens” who have survived Covid-19 and are temporarily free to conduct a normal work and social life. The privilege will be temporary as immunity is not expected to be life long and we hope that there is a vaccine but it will still exist for a year or so. At the moment I read that it is estimated that just 2 to 3% of the population has actually caught the virus.
I sincerely hope that we can roll out accurate large scale testing in a timely fashion and make a good vaccine. The current situation is depressing in the extreme and we need some good news.
If you look in that link though, small business is defined differently by NAICS code. Some business types are defined by number of employees, up to 1,500 total. Others are defined by maximum revenue. For full-service restaurant, it says $8 million in annual revenue, with both Shake Shack and Ruth’s Chris exceed by a large margin. Ultimately though, the program was intended to keep people employed and off unemployment, and the only chance of that was for it to apply to the bigger companies as well. They just underfunded it. Estimates are that it needs at least $1T for that, so they’re adding more, but it still won’t be enough for everyone. The big companies got in first because of existing banking relationships and having accountants/lawyers on staff who were prepared with the paperwork necessary. Us small business owners had to find all the documents ourselves, and debate what some of the questions are asking for or whether a question applies to us or not. There were lots of people getting the word out, but not a lot of support for the process itself. Then most banks put it through their normal loan review process, which at our credit union, was nearly 2 weeks, only to be approved in time for the money to have run out. Other banks submitted the request to reserve the funds first, then put it through the review process. In either case, it is 100% guaranteed with minimal documentation required, so shouldn’t have required all that much on their parts. However, they were basically thrown into this by the government, most weren’t SBA lenders originally. It’s all just a mess. If this had happened a year ago, my business would have been closed already. This year we had some savings to use and continue to pay our employees, but that’s almost exhausted, so hoping PPP comes through soon.
I don’t see this as a “problem with the plan” so much as a “precondition for enacting the plan.”
If the government can’t deliver on large-scale testing (which they should have been able to develop the capacity to do weeks and weeks ago) then the rest of the plan for re-opening the country needs to stay on hold.
Yes - they are defined by employees- but there is an overall gross receipts cap for their programs even for those listed with only employees as the standard.
If memory serves - it’s $33.5 million for those sectors- mainly manufacturing and heavy highway and commercial building construction.
Other NAICS codes have much smaller gross receipts caps - $7million for many professional services - engineers were that also - but I think I remember that being raised recently.
You’re right, its not a problem with the plan itself. Would have been better for me to to write “One of the problems with enacting the plan is that we don’t currently have the ability for large scale testings.”
Another of the problems is that a bunch of state governors are going to disregard all sensible advice and open their state up now, I’m looking at you Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia.
