Somewhat o/t, so I understand if my comment gets sorted somewhere else or moderated.
Polls are not prognostications. I won’t get into all the details because it is covered well elsewhere, but to sum up:
Polls aren’t meant to decide an election in advance. A lot can happen that will affect the accuracy of polling and it’s a wonder they aren’t less accurate than they are.
The polls did not suggest that Biden would win in a landslide - only that a landslide was possible.
The votes are still being counted, and Biden’s advantage is only going to get bigger, at least in the national popular vote.
We won’t know the full polling error for a bit, but every indication is that it will be a bit above average, but well within the range observed over the past several elections.
The polls suggested Biden had a very good chance of winning and he did, so the polls “called” this aspect correctly.
The Coup-o-meter isn’t really data-driven, so it doesn’t quite compare to polling or election forecasts. But they seem to have got the balance right - there are some disturbing developments, but enough positive indicators to dissuade folks from hitting the panic button. Democracy shouldn’t be taken for granted regardless.
for a coup to work in the US you will need all the different military forces and police forces to accept the new leadership
That’s a good point. Replacing senior Pentagon officials with puppets should have caused an uptick the Coup-o-Meter. I’m concerned that these people aren’t taking things seriously enough.
As for police, our experience with BLM protests has revealed a thin blue line dividing American police from the American people.
While the thin blue line may also divide some police from other police, you don’t need ALL the police and military to back a coup; all you need is enough.
For this “coup” to work, he would need multiple judges in multiple states, multiple state legislatures in multiple states and Congress to side with him based on zero evidence of massive voter fraud. (I do not believe that the Roberts Supreme Court is interested in hearing this case and will defer to the state courts). When Trump won in 2016, there was fever talk about faithless electors and state legislatures overturning THAT, but nothing ever came of it (except a big fat paycheck for Jill Stein). For this coup to work, it would require an active flaunting of democracy in multiple states. It would be the first shot fired in a second civil war. It is not impossible, but I do not see it all falling into place in the next month with the entire world watching.
I see this as an attempted but half-hearted coup that’s really intended to flesh out a backstory/mythology that foments stochastic terrorism and a Syrian-style civil war. As usual, Biff and his cronies know that they’re selling a line of unsupported BS to the rubes, but what counts is that they’re seen by them as having fought a hopeless legal battle against the Soros-led forces of deep-state darkness. That helps ensure their supporters will feel justification in taking “Second Amendment remedies” against what they see as an illegitimate presidential administration.
If by some tiny chance the coup succeeds through the courts and statehouses, they’ll take that win. There will be mass protests against it, and the military and police – led by appointed toadies and obeying what they have to see (and what many of them want to see) as a legally elected administration – will crack down brutally on behalf of the junta.
The same with the conspiracy theories that the whole election was really a sting operation with radioactive ballot tagging and magical tracking blockchains. smh.
I emigrated down to a South American country 15 years ago, and US planned and backed coups are common, unfortunately.
And the strategy to legitimize trump’s power grab is nearly identical to the one used in the US-assisted coup which ousted Evo Morales in Bolivia exactly a year ago. That strategy relied on spreading conspiracy rumors that the left was going to steal the election since the left is always so corrupt in their corrupt big cities and only white, Christian, free-market loving chauvinists from rural areas can save democracy. Then, during vote counting, a big batch from some heavily left leaning urban areas changed the tendency and the right cried ballot tampering.
I watched horrific TV images of a local right wing posse lynch the female and indigenous mayor of a small city. For being one of ‘the corrupt election theifs’. A year of dictatorship later, elections were again called and while Evo was barred, his party’s ticket won in a landslide.
Brazil’s soft coup against their center left government didn’t end OK, though. The proxy candidate lost to a fascist. Agony.
For me, then, this is all too real, and absolutely crazy-making to have to hear media say ‘uncharted territory’ ad nauseum.
But it appears that while I share the complaint that the coup-o-meter needs daily updates even if no change is registered, it appears the authors are serious and have expertise. Most importantly towards making me chill a little was that they convinced me that ‘preparing for a coup’ should be split from ‘attempting a coup’, and I’ve dialed my internal coup-o-meter down accordingly. May actually get some work done today.
Yeah, that IS worrisome. Especially when you think about the motivations of those who would agree to crew the RMS Trumptanic AFTER it has hit the iceberg and presumably only has two months left. That’s not a lot of time to commit enough grift to make up for the fact that you have materially hurt your employment prospects for the next four years…
Not for lack of trying, though. I’m not sure what can be done by most of us to fight against a coup, but I don’t think that “Nope, just won’t happen,” is enough of a defense of democracy. I don’t think that Trump is likely to get enough state legislatures behind him to succeed, but even one would be a defeat for democracy, and another step towards autocracy.
I kind of get a kick out of @Swanee continuing to post improbable and fantastical garbage here, it reminds me of grade school when a classmate told our teacher “My uncle said Coca-cola is better for you than orange juice.” Half the class laughed, the other half had confused looks on their faces, like maybe they really wanted it to be true and they could get mom to serve Coke for breakfast every day.
“Honey, we’re learning about nutrition today, Coca Cola has no vitamins or minerals, it’s just sugar water. I don’t know what your uncle was thinking but I’ll bet he’s not a doctor. People use Coke to clean their car batteries.”
Not yet. Right now it is an overgrown toddler throwing a temper tantrum, enabled by adults who should know better. If Biden or Harris wind up under arrest or some such, that obviously changes, but right now it is helpless rage from idiots who have had their toy taken away. Not terribly concerned. Yet.
The only real danger is that a Biden-won Republican-controlled battleground state would send trumped-up Trump electors instead of Biden electors to the Electoral Congress.
And the only real state where that might be possible is Georgia. And he doesn’t need Georgia to make 270.
