Yale history professor Timothy Snyder predicts the horrific aftermath of a Trump coup in 2024

[Mindysan33]

@HMSGoose

a more “intentional” process and Russia ended up with Putin. Woof.

Not really. By all accounts the 1990s was a chaotic time in Russian history, with all sorts of entrenchment of corruption that was in part facilitated from abroad. Putin both benefited from that, but also was seen as a solution to it by many Russians who went from at least having a roof over their heads and food in their stomachs to even more uncertainty.

As I said, the dissolution of the Soviet Union is in many ways, I’d argue, still unfolding. Putin seems like he’s trying to rebuild the soviet footprint by destabilizing the former Soviet republics and tring to bring them back into Russia’s orbit.

[angusm]

His argument seems to be based on the assumption that Trump will lose the popular vote (reasonably likely) and also the vote in the electoral college, and that the Republicans will then break the system to deliver the result they want.

But the way that the system is set up, an electoral college win for Trump (or any Republican candidate) is reasonably plausible. Because of the bizarre way the American political system is engineered, the winner of the presidency tends to be determined by voters in a handful of states. If you can rig things to swing those states your way then, under the existing rules, your guy wins. And the Republicans have invested huge amounts of effort in rigging things so that the vote goes their way where it counts.

So, yes, Trump will probably lose the popular vote for the third time. But the rules will likely say that he wins anyway, and those are (if you overlook the shenanigans aimed at neutering opposing votes at the state level) the same rules that have been in force in every previous election.

So what happens in that case? Yes, the majority of voters know that they were denied what they wanted. But – just as in 2000 and 2016 – the Republicans can say “Sorry, the rules say we won. Live with it.”

We know that the rules suck, that demographics and a historical devil’s bargain has made it possible for a minority to elect the president and other representatives (members of that minority, by the way, are quite happy with this state of affairs). But it’s a lot harder to stir up outrage when the election gets stolen ‘by the book’, just as it has been on two previous occasions, than when one side flagrantly throws procedure out the window to force home their candidate. And if past elections are any guide, I think the Republicans won’t need to put their thumb on the scale at the electoral college level to get the result they want.

Incidentally, it’s also worth considering the other scenario, where by some miracle the Democrats get their shit together enough to pull off an electoral college win. In that case, you again have a large angry minority who “know” that they should have won, just as they “know” they won the 2020 election. And while they may have more or less sucked it up once, if this pesky democracy thing gets in the way of their right to rule a second time, that’s a recipe for real trouble.

[cannibalpeas]

@angusm

an electoral college win for Trump (or any Republican candidate) is reasonably plausible.

Absolutely. The most significant democratic voter in 2020 was COVID.

[docosc]

@angusm

the same rules that have been in force in every previous election.

No. The number of new voter suppression laws and partisan election management systems put in place by the GQP is unprecedented at least since Jim Crow. And that is because if the election is free and fair, They. Will. Lose. And they are very aware of this. These changes cannot be ignored.

[Mindysan33]

@angusm

and that the Republicans will then break the system to deliver the result they want.

That is precisely what they are working towards. They know they can’t win without fraud.

@angusm

an electoral college win for Trump (or any Republican candidate) is reasonably plausible.

Except he just lost it.

@angusm

If you can rig things to swing those states your way then, under the existing rules, your guy wins.

Rigging is rigging. It’s why Stacey Abrams accepted the results of the governor’s race in 2018, but did not accept it’s legitimacy, because the reason why Kemp won was via voter suppression.

@angusm

And the Republicans have invested huge amounts of effort in rigging things so that the vote goes their way where it counts.

Which is what we need to call out and what we need to fix from the federal level.

@angusm

But the rules will likely say that he wins anyway,

Only if several states let the republican controlled legislature over turn the popular vote in their states.

@angusm

We know that the rules suck

They are wrong, and should be changed. Just because “the rules suck” doesn’t mean they should fucking exist. This is like saying “well, segregation sucked, but it was the rules”… well, no. It’s most certainly anti-democratic and should be fought against.

@angusm

where by some miracle the Democrats get their shit together enough to pull off an electoral college win.

Which they jsut did, but hey, let’s pretend that they lost?

@cannibalpeas

The most significant democratic voter in 2020 was COVID.

Adn we still fucking beat them.

@docosc

They. Will. Lose. And they are very aware of this.

[cannibalpeas]

True, but I think their point is that the EC and the Senate were designed to overrepresent rural voters from the beginning. Add in the South/North Dakota split, Missouri “compromise” and a host of other nasty, but purely legal actions, the hegemony has been preserved into the 21st c.

Honestly, trump “winning” in 2024 is maybe the best bet to save democracy if the Senate doesn’t get their shit together in the next month or two. Going into 2024 with the same laws as 2020 is guaranteed to see shit unravel quickly.

Edited because 2020 time warp has made me question what century we’re in.

[Mindysan33]

@cannibalpeas

trump “winning” in 2024 is maybe the best bet to save democracy

@cannibalpeas

Edited because 2020 time warp has made me question what century we’re in.

[cannibalpeas]

In that he’s too stupid to make the moves necessary to truly overthrow the entire federal government and has about 10% arterial flow… maybe?

[gatto]

@angusm

that’s a recipe for real trouble.

for the democrats to win ( and im not even a fan of their mostly right of center politics ) is the best outcome. nothing on the horizon will silence or quell the far right. white supremacy has been with us since the start.

keeping the far right out of power, making meaningful policy changes, and making whatever changes we can in our own lives: that’s the only path forward that i can see

[Mindysan33]

He did considerable damage in his 4 years as president. Considerable. We’re looking at probably a million deaths from covid thanks to him. We’re looking at a court system stacked with right wing ghouls, thanks to him. We’re looking at the biggest set back for women’s rights, LGBQT+ rights, and Civil rights in decades… So no. Another 4 years is not acceptable.

[cannibalpeas]

@gatto

making meaningful policy changes

Yeah, that’s where Democrats really excel.

/s

[ChuckV]

@cannibalpeas

In that he’s too stupid to make the moves necessary to truly overthrow the entire federal government and has about 10% arterial flow… maybe?

Others will do it with TFG as a figurehead.

[Mindysan33]

You know, at least they are fucking trying. We can say that the economy grew, from the bottom up, at an astonishing rate, thanks to the rescue plan and we’re finally getting long term infrastructure addressed.

The GOP is ACTIVELY TRYING TO DESTROY THE COUNTRY… so maybe they are the bigger problem right now?

[cannibalpeas]

I’m not really taking a rigid stance here, just speculating out loud. Fact is, it’s all dark days unless the Senate passes laws to protect voting rights now.

@Mindysan33

You know, at least they are fucking trying.

Yeah, the two massive spending bills already authorized under Biden are, in Bernie Sander’s own words, the most progressive legislation since the new deal. BBB would be the cherry on top, but they have already accomplished more than my Dem admin in my lifetime.

@Mindysan33

maybe they are the bigger problem right now?

No question. But at this particular moment, they don’t hold many cards, meanwhile the ones who do seem to be doing a lot of fiddling around election reform to borrow a phrase from upthread. I’m very glad to see the forceful language that Biden is adopting and their plans to visit Atl and begin pushing for a true election safety net.

[WoolyBugger]

@angusm

But the rules will likely say that he wins anyway, and those are (if you overlook the shenanigans aimed at neutering opposing votes at the state level) the same rules that have been in force in every previous election.

A lot can happen before the next presidential election. But I see where your head is at, per 538:

The midterms are not looking good for a Democratic majority, which is not great. However, I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Trump will “probably” win in 2024. He’s always one gaffe away from losing the base. (See: what happened when he suggested banning bump stocks) He could have a stroke and become barely-functional, which would shatter any illusions of strength.

If the GOP loses their cult of personality around Trump, it’s a very different election all of a sudden. Let’s not assume that because Biden is down in the polls that the electoral college is a foregone conclusion.

[Mindysan33]

@cannibalpeas

Fact is, it’s all dark days unless the Senate passes laws to protect voting rights now .

I know my senators are hard at work trying to get that done. Sen Warnock is probably one of the key people working to make that happen.

The reality is that laws don’t happen over night. It takes actual work, which many Democrats are actually doing. The problem, which has been for years, is the obstructionist GOP. Let’s hold them accountable for being unwilling to compromise anything, even when they lose.

[cannibalpeas]

Yeah, I’m pretty jealous of GA’s Senate representation these days. I really appreciate Gillibrand’s initiatives (esp. military accountability), but a strong case can be made that the current strife around BBB is pretty much all Schumer’s piss poor attempt at emulating Pelosi’s ability to corral a majority.

[dabeyc]

i am aware of that. i just meant i didn’t need to read that TODAY, when everything else to read out there is all about the news of last 1/6.

[gatto]

@cannibalpeas

Yeah, that’s where Democrats really excel.

they absolutely don’t - but

@cannibalpeas

Honestly, trump “winning” in 2024 is maybe the best bet to save democracy

is somehow better?

policy affects people’s lives. do you honestly think if literally anyone else was president when covid started it would look this bad here? trump’s people tore kids from their parents at the border, showered the wealthiest with money, and deliberately fueled pandemic deaths - and continue to do so.

nothing is good about having them in power.

if we got dc statehood, manchin would be a nobody, and we’d have a meaningful response to climate change.

these things matter

[KathyPartdeux]

Enjoy the influx of refugees, I guess?

Damn - that’s so many - they’ll just take over.