There’s no reason that NATO has to keep his membership active.
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There doesn’t appear to be any provision in the North Atlantic Treaty for expelling or suspending a member state.
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They can sue.
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In what court?
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Exactly
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The better path is through the EU – more goodies to take away when Orban misbehaves. But they’re not going to do anything either. And Hungary has a tradition of cozying up to fascists without fully joining their bloc.
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There’s been some chatter about that.
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Orbán was interviewed on video after his Putin meeting, during his flight back from Moscow. It’s worth watching. He refers to Putin as a friend & admits that he prepared the meeting in secret, behind the EU’s back, to avoid surveillance by the “big guys.” Let’s unpack it!
First, there is absolutely no criticism of Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian and murderous rule in Russia or the genocidal war in Ukraine, not even a hint. Quite the opposite – Orbán praises both Putin and Russia, describing the country as a great empire. He calls Putin a friend and is proud of their friendly negotiations. He inaccurately recalls their first in-person meeting in 2009 in Saint Petersburg when it was actually in 2006 in Budapest. He seems very proud of himself, emphasizing that he is the only Western leader who has met with both Zelensky and Putin in person. His gestures and smiles reveal his self-satisfaction in his current position. He also admits he intends to use the EU presidency “politically”, similar to former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, rather than the usual “bureaucratic” approach. This suggests we can expect more controversy in the next six months of @HU24EU
.Second, Orbán confirms what European government officials and diplomats told me: “The meeting was organized in a totally secret way,” meaning it was arranged behind the backs of EU allies. (Read my story on the background of his visit here: Orbán’s meeting with Putin was plotted behind EU, NATO allies’ back - VSquare.org) He claims he began organizing the meeting with Putin after meeting Zelensky on Monday – which contradicts reports from The Guardian, quoting a Hungarian government-connected source, stating that preparations were made well in advance. Orbán joyfully details how he kept the meeting secret from his allies, explaining, “I sent a secret message to the foreign minister [Péter Szijjártó] to organize something, as telecommunications are totally under surveillance by the big guys, and I tried to keep it under the carpet.” He is likely referring to the US, the UK, Germany, and perhaps China as those “big guys”. He adds that the information only leaked when “they realized there was an airplane hired or when we asked for permission for the Hungarian military plane to fly over Poland. That was the point when it leaked. But until then, it was totally under control.”
(For the record, I was the journalist who first reported on his plans to visit Moscow – my original scoop here: x.com –, confirmed by three Western and CEE officials. Because of source protection, I obviously can’t comment more.)
Third, Orbán claims he asked Putin about various peace proposals, the possibility of a ceasefire, and, interestingly, about Russia’s plans for Europe’s security architecture after the war. Putin dismissed the reality of any peace plans or ceasefires but mentioned that Russia has an idea for Europe’s future security architecture, although it’s too early to discuss. The neutral way how Orbán mentions the Kremlin’s future plans for Europe – we can guess what that’d look like – is chilling. Orbán’s recounting of their conversation lacked any mention of Russia’s direct security threat to NATO’s Eastern flank countries or the hybrid warfare, sabotage, and violent incidents perpetrated by Russian intelligence services against Hungary’s allies in recent months. Additionally, when Orbán tries to appeal to the audience’s emotions by mentioning how many young soldiers die every day, and that perhaps a dozen died during the twenty minutes of this interview, he fails to mention that Ukrainian soldiers are defending their people and land while Russians are invading and massacring civilians.
Fourth, Orbán hints at more surprise visits, also organized in complete secrecy, with the first one happening Monday morning. (I’ve already heard interesting stuff about his plans, so follow this account for more updates soon.)
Fifth, a quick remark on Weltwoche and its editor-in-chief, Roger Köppel, who conducted this video interview. Many comments accuse him of conducting a propaganda interview. However, it’s essential to be precise: this is not propaganda like in North Korea, Russia, or Hungary, where government-controlled media acts as a state communications arm. This is classic access journalism, an unethical and unjournalistic approach seen in Western Europe and the United States. Here, otherwise independent outlets set aside all ethical rules to gain exclusive access to political leaders. A Hungarian government propagandist is paid to be a propagandist and has no choice to act in any other way – or they fire him. Weltwoche and Köppel have all their freedom and independence (at least from the Hungarian state), and it was their own decision that intimate access to Orbán is much more important than real journalism. Köppel asked softball questions, without challenging contradictions or addressing Putin’s crimes at home and abroad, and failed to question Orbán about how Hungary’s government is influenced by Russian interests. No wonder why Orbán’s people picked him and not anybody else to accompany their delegation on the plane, and granted him exclusivity.
Since there were no follow-up questions by Köppel about why Orbán hid his visit from his allies, that allied leaders Orbán intentionally wanted to keep in the dark will likely address the issue at the NATO Summit next week.
Finally, here’s the full interview:
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WTF?
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tl;dr Peaceniks and Libertarians team up to argue that NATO members should not admit Ukraine because they are not really willing to go to war against Russia to protect it. Membership would therefore not deter Russia from invading Ukraine in future. Knowing that Ukraine was going to join NATO after the war would incentivise Putin to keep fighting, even though membership would not be a deterrant, but knowing that Ukraine was not going to join would presumably incentivise him to stop somehow.
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Also Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer, representing the “might makes right” school of foreign policy “realism”. They regularly excuse isolationism and appeasement under the rubric that the expansionist aspirations of great powers must not be thwarted and that they should stick to their direct geographic spheres of influence.
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Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe:
PACE General Rapporteur concerned by loss of contact with Vladimir Kara-Murza
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One of them thinks he was sent by god, the other thinks he is god
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