2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 3)

Patrick Stewart Reaction GIF

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I imagine this may go unnoticed outside Poland, so I`d like to give heads up to all of you interested in the rather never officially undisclosed/confirmed circumstances around the beginning of the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine from Polish perspective (mainly).

Just recently a book came out titled ā€œPolska na wojnieā€ (eng. Poland at war) which is a mash up of interviews that the author (journalist Zbigniew Parafianowicz) made with several high ranking members of Polish government and presidential office, as well as army/special service officers, with some additional comments from their Ukrainian counterparts. They all remain anonymous, from obvious reasons, but the story checks out with what we`ve learned in the past.

Anyway, it surely made a splash here (:poland:), because itā€™s full of spicy details (for a Polish and possibly Ukrainian readers) but there are some, that may be interesting for everybody else.

The talk is about the onset of coming war and the following months and gives some very interesting insight into the backstage, and especially - Polish-Ukrainian relations and cooperation. Below a couple of quotes from the book as reference (throw it into google translator), but I`ll give you some of the interesting snippets:

  1. :poland:government was seriously concerned that Lukashenka will join the war, and was preparing a scenario in which anti-regime diversion groups would be sent to the :belarus:army rear to wreck havoc. In the end, Lukashenka was so afraid himself, that through various channels made inquires to Warsaw, if they`d let him pass the border and then to fly away from the closest airport. He knew if things went south for him, Russians would not let him lift into his own airspace.

  2. Polish special forces were securing Ukrainian delegates that were attending negotiations in Belarus (March 2022). They were escorting them in helicopters that landed on Belarusian soil and took them out when they were done. Also, by a coincidence (they were training :ukraine:specials), Polish commando forces were present at the facility in Brovary (Kiyv suburbs), when the war erupted. They stayed on longer, gathering intel. A British unit is also reported doing the same.

  3. Despite Russian propaganda, while Poland never even thought about using the opportunity to reclaim Lviv (LwĆ³w), it remained a concern for Ukrainians. Warsaw told their partners - we will be with you till the end, as long as you keep on fighting. Together with the unconditional help that was immediately provided on many levels, it convinced Ukrainians about the sincerity of Polish intentions. As a side note: Dmytro Kuleba with his whole family (and dog) was received by his :poland:counterpart - Zbigniew Rau at his private home, where they could wait out the critical time period. Similar proposals were made to :ukraine:Danilov and Sybiha.

  4. On the 25th of March brand new :poland:Boeing 737-800 NG had an emergency landing while on the way to Jasionka (RzeszĆ³w) to a meeting with president Biden. President Duda and gen. Andrzejczak were on board. The cause of near-death experience (how passengers described it) was a faulty trimmer which malfunctioned forcing the pilots to fight with the steering handles. Luckily the plane landed safely and the delegation quickly changed their plane to another one, continuing the trip. Nevertheless, at the time possible sabotage or assassination attempt was one of the probable causes that were being investigated.

  5. Americans were convinced that Kyiv will fall within 3 days and prepared to evacuate 40k people, presumably apart from own :us:citizens, also whole Ukrainian political elite and establishment. Jake Sullivan was the most skeptical about Ukraineā€™s chances, and argued about that with Jakub Kumoch (presidential secretary) who was convinced UA will prevail. Later on, from the same reasons US remained reluctant to provide additional help in the form of heavy equipment. Washington agreed for providing tanks after Biden-Duda meeting, which Warsaw insisted on doing asap (a batch of T72ā€™s followed soon afterwards paving the way), but they were still sending mixed signals about transfer of fighter jets. Warsaw wanted US on board, as it need it to be an allied effort in order to shield Poland from possible Russian retaliation.

In the end, Warsaw got tired US indecision and reluctance, and acted independently. Dismantled around 10 :poland:MIG-29 fighter jets and left them in parts, in a forest belt near the border. Kyiv was notified about ā€œownerlessā€ parts, which were then picked up and quickly assembled on the Ukrainian side of the border. That happened months(!) before the official transfer of jets in a larger international coalition.

**

There is more. A trip of Roman Abramovich through Poland and then to Turkey, that was supposed to be an attempt of reaching out to Russians through unofficial channels, or how Poland used specially created private companies to bypass bureaucracy when transferring military goods. It also has a significant chapter about why Polish-Ukrainian relations on the governmental level blossomed for a year, but then started to wither due to European power-politics, personal ego-trips and internal affairs in both countries. Particulary, chancellor Scholz and president Zelensky receive a bit of a whipping for their behavior.

Edit: Ah yes, I forgot the topic of rocket that fell on polish village of Przewodow, killing 2. All the gathered material (the rocket parts itself) indicate that it was indeed of Ukrainian origin. The stubborness with which Kiyv insisted it was :ru:, despite no evidence was provided became one of the reasons why the relations cooled down.

But I will leave that and the rest of the book for you to find out.

Elaborating on the incident at :poland:PrzewodĆ³w. One of the 1st serious difference in :poland::ukraine:relations.

There was an official Polish investigation to which Ukrainian side had full access, that established the rocket was of :ukraine: origin. Poland didnā€™t demand compensation for families of 2 civilians killed by the explosion, although due to Kiyv attitude it was considered, and in the end just tried to tone down the emotions for the sake of greater cause.

Yet, president Zelensky insisted on :ru:responsibility and called for NATO article 4 implementation while failing to provide any evidence. Poland stance was backed by the US and other alliance members and was unwilling to be pulled into direct war on questionable basis.

Quotes (see below) from the book state, that while :poland:authorities understood why Ukraine tries to pull them into the war (a country fighting for its survival), they couldnā€™t grasp the ongoing stubborness of president Zelensky. Which antagonized president Duda and the cabinet. From Ukrainian point of view, it was perceived as a sign of Warsawā€™s weakness under US gaslighting.

Interestingly, gen. Zaluzny supposedly acted differently, and called his :poland:counterpart gen. Andrzejczak to apologize for the incident. But that gesture was kept on the military level, and never made it to political relations.

Btw. this book has a significant part about why the relations deteriorated further, leading in the end to the conflict about grain export, Zelenskyā€™s disastrous speech at the UN, and then similarly fatal PM Morawieckiā€™s comment (which in addition was untrue) about Poland suspending arms export to Ukraine. In my opinion, author successfully balances the responsibility between both sides, remaining critical where itā€™s due. Itā€™s not a hagiography, rather recollection of accounts of people involved in the events, with critical comment.

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Putin now plans to use the entire prison population of Russia as a giant sponge to absorb Ukrainian ammo.

A military recruitment poster now all over Russian prisons.

Promised amounts but usually never received are.

$2000 signing bonus
$2000/month
$40/month for life.

Naive contrarian bro Musk just called Zelensky a butcher.

This is part of Muskā€™s regurgitated Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian people somehow want Russians to rule them and itā€™s merely the West standing in the way.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

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From the Guardian liveblog:

4h ago09.07 GMT

Central Asian migrants are leaving Russia because of the Ukraine war, Agence France-Presse is reporting this morning. After living and working in Russia for the last decade, Tajik construction worker Zoir Kurbanov is one of those who decided it was time to head home. Wages are falling and men face a danger of being sent by Moscow to the front.

Kurbanov got an offer for jobs on building sites in Mariupol and Donetsk ā€“ cities in occupied Ukraine. ā€œI refused,ā€ the 39-year-old said. He decided to take a huge pay cut and return to Tajikistan, taking up a construction job.

Russia is increasingly trying to lure central Asian migrants to work in the parts of Ukraine it occupies, or trapping them into fighting for its army. On the pretext of uncovering some kind of offence ā€“ real or fabricated ā€“ Russian authorities sometimes offer migrants a stark choice: prison or go to the front.

ā€œThe Russian police were checking me everywhere, asking if I had done my military service,ā€ said Argen Bolgonbekov, a 29-year-old who served in the Kygryz border force.

In the end he was deported back to Kyrgyzstan for irregularities with his documents. ā€œItā€™s a good thing, because over there you couldnā€™t walk around in peace anymore,ā€ he said, speaking at a textile workshop in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek.

Russian lawmaker Mikhail Matveyev has even called for central Asians who have recently been granted Russian citizenship to be drafted instead of ethnic Russians. ā€œWhy are they not mobilised? Where are the Tajik battalions? There is a war going on, Russia needs soldiers. Welcome to our citizenship.ā€

Despite the pressure, Russia remains a priority destination for central Asian workers ā€“ they can go without a visa, speak the Russian language and earn money. Kurbanov, the Tajik construction worker, said: ā€œIf the war ends tomorrow, Iā€™ll go back to Russia the day after.ā€

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DRINK!

Because might as well turn all these 'mysterious 'deaths into a drinking game.

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More than 2.400 Ukrainian children have been taken to Belarus since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, according to new research published by Yale School of Public Health. The findings are the most extensive yet about Belarusā€™ role in Russiaā€™s forced relocation of Ukrainian children.

BELARUSā€™ COLLABORATION WITH RUSSIA IN THE SYSTEMATIC DEPORTATION OF UKRAINEā€™S CHILDREN (PDF)

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