A logical guide to 2016 Democratic Primary outcomes

Totally with you there, but I think we need to channel that feeling of disappointment into action rather than acceptance.

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Last time the US looked dumb to the rest of the world for a while, the world got an illegal invasion in Iraq. Without that, the IS would not have been possible. Remember, that means at least a hundred thousand people killed by that war crime (yes, attacking a country for no reason counts as a war crime). And thatā€™s the low estimate fro the invasion itself. If you count all the consequences, all the deaths caused by the destruction of the country and the civil wars that followed, Iā€™m sure we got to a million. Also, millions of refugees.

The US also started officially condoning torture.

GWBā€™s reign obviously didnā€™t count as ā€œreal crazy stuffā€. So if Trumpā€™s real crazy stuff isnā€™t going ot get traction, his ā€œslightly crazy stuffā€ is still very dangerous for the rest of the world. Literally millions-of-people-dead dangerous.

Compared to that, whether heā€™s a homophobic racist inside the US, is really just a first-world problem.

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it is worth noting that this is bullshit pr spin, by the ny times, trying to get sanders supporters to back Hillary.

it refers only to the bills they both voted on during their two years of overlap. if you look at how many times they both voted on the same issues during those two years, it is a very small sample set. their voting records on issues are quite a bit different when you look at their whole carriers and their actual political stances and who pulls their strings aka who they are beholden to.

this is the problem when people cherry pick data and manipulate statistics to try and achieve an outcome instead of see what the full data sets actually say and honestly represent that.

Yeah it is quite depressing that after all this entire ā€œdisruptiveā€ election cycle theater/charade, the washington string pullers are getting the candidate theyā€™ve been backing the whole time and absolutely nothing has changed. Throw her against a crazy guy and the american people get fleeced into a lesser of two evil votes yet again. youā€™d think people would wise up as this is exactly how weā€™ve ended up here, but the con is a good one and people keep being dumb enough to fall for it.

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At this point - sheā€™s the winner. Thereā€™s no chance of another outcome. What Bernie can do is gain concessions and support for the policies he and his supporters find most important. And get some leverage on the Veep - which I think should be Elizabeth Warren.

Bernieā€™s policies were the better ones - if he believes outside of himself - which he does he needs to serve them under these conditions. And insure Trump is a footnote in history books; not a chapter.

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My takeā€¦

Hillary wins because superdelagates.

The FBI chief hates her.

She is arrested during a nationally televised debate on live tv.

Trump wins because no one will vote for someone who they watched get arrested. - and yes I think that it could happen - the only thing that stops this scenario is for Obama to give her a pardon before it gets tot hat point - it wouldnā€™t hurt as much as an arrest on TV would.

Itā€™s not designed for the voters.

Well most of her support does come from women and POC. Maybe they may need it explained a little bit louder now?

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Trump sure does move the goal posts of OK versus terrible. An ineffectual blowhard who scares our allies and can get nothing he wants through congress rates as OK because the alternative is so very much worse. I donā€™t think that he has any conception of the degree to which he has to cooperate with congress to get much done.

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Where do white women fit in that equation? And POC who are men? Iā€™d be fine with an explanation that isnā€™t loud.

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Warren would be nice, but I canā€™t see Clinton doing that. Two women is too much of a risk, plus Warren is too much of a fighter against the huge-money interests that Clinton basically works for.

As for what Bernie can get, Iā€™m wondering what heā€™ll be thinking while heading to the White House to meet with Obama. Seems to me that the strongest card in Sandersā€™ hand is the threat of a third-party run, which would likely to great damage to Clinton in the general. Will he play the card that is that threat in order to get concessions? I guess weā€™ll never know, but given what I sense is his genuine hunger for justice and a move toward instead of away from equality, I like to think he will. Who knows, maybe he can get Warren as veep, and more. But then, what guarantees could he get that what heā€™s promised for not running would actually happen?

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Regarding that second theory, Iā€™m not saying I believe it, but itā€™s hard to imagine any other candidate that the Republicans could run who would be so distasteful that people would vote for Hillary instead.

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More narrative to go along with the output of the weighted random number generator

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As if he gave 92% as many speeches to Goldman Sachs.

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Hillary really should pick Warren - sheā€™s the best veep candidate out there - and sheā€™s fulfilling the traditional role of a veep (attacking the other sides front runner) very well. She would be a voice inside the admin that could push the policies half the party demands. Much as Biden could lead on lgbt (and especially trans issues).

And - at this point- its also pretty clear that provoking Trump to display his bigotry is good strategy.

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The way I understand it, Warren didnā€™t run because she currently still wants to be a Senator ā€” she thinks that she can do more good there than as President. I donā€™t see that changing when the title offered is ā€œVice-President.ā€

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I think there is a big change in the field between then and now. A large orange shadow is looming over her.

This might be the thing. What she thought back then might not be what she actually does when the carrot is dangled.

Weā€™ll see, I guess. But I think Clinton would still like to pick someone to her right to help win over moderate Republicans.

Hopefully Sanders will keep pushing and his surrogates will have some influence over the Democratic platform, and then substantial support for Stein et all will also keep pulling her to the left.

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So sheā€™ll have to pick someone who actually is a republican?

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Joe Lieberman!

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Ha, he actually came to mind for me too! :sweat_smile:

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