If it’s a negotiation, it’s a very lopsided one. The kind of self-destructive flailing we see here is typical when the weaker party isn’t very smart. AMC’s bluster here reminds me of the old joke about the elephant and the ant.
There’s something special about the collective movie theatre experience – nothing like cheering along with 200 other people as the Death Star is blown up. But that won’t be enough to save most movie chains. Theatrical showings of movies (not necessarily in purpose-designed theatres) will become more of a boutique niche business.
For sure i think some movies are greatly improved by either the social setting of a theater or by the size of the screen alone (comedies, horror and some action movies really benefit from it). I have very fond memories of watching specific movies and having the audience really get into it, others like Bladerunner 2049 my time watching it at the theater really blew me away… i rewatched it recently and i enjoyed it but the overall experience wasn’t the same.
I respectfully disagree. The experience you can get at home matches now, if not exceeds many theaters. Theaters simply can’t keep replacing projectors and screens quickly enough to keep up with advancing tech. 4k 65" screens with surround sound blow most chain theaters away. There’s simply not enough profit in multiplexes anymore.
We’ve got Alamo Drafthouses here in our area as well. And maybe that’ll be the direction theaters shift towards for a while. There’s probably enough folks to keep those places busy, even as the industry shifts to more simultaneous releases of films to theaters and streaming services. But the days of the giant multiplexes with a dozen different titles and their crappy nachos (which I love, to be honest) are coming to a close.
And frankly I, and a lot of other folks, aren’t going to movies to share an experience with a thousand other strangers. We go to see the film. That’s the primary draw. The more they have to entice us in with other entertainments and diversions, the more distractions on hand, the less interested I am because I’m there for the movie, not to hang out with other folks.
I would guess you’re a “go on opening night” person. I’m the opposite, I’ll gladly wait two or three weeks for the crowds to die down. But to keep theaters viable, they need both of us. Overall ticket sales are down 28% since their high in 2002. That’s only going to continue.
The big chains, including AMC have been scrambling to mimic that approach as well. As Alamo and their ilk are practically the only end of movie exhibition that’s growing.
But the big chains seem to be shooting themselves in the foot. Too slow to adopt the model, still forcing 3d (and now “4d”) showings people don’t appear to want. When studios are no longer making major 3d releases except post conversion. The “special events” they’re pushing are corporate webcasts and live streamed concerts over the marathons, mini film fests, reparatory releases and touring Q&A things that made Alamo a thing. And then shit like this.
I think those predicting the death of movie theaters are premature, especially as things become more globalized. Worldwide sales are a much bigger piece of the box office pie these days and countries like China, India, Brazil etc are building large cineplexes the way the US was in the 70s and 80s. Going out to the movies is still a new thing for the developing middle class in these places.
I am an opening night kind of guy but only for some movies, i would say 99% of movies i don’t need to see it right away but there are some i am keen on watching it as soon as it comes out. However my greatest enjoyment in movie theaters has come from Alamo Drafthouse, their theaters are smaller which is a big bonus for me. I’m also more keen on watching older movies there vs newer ones, and their social movie events are something that i couldn’t replicate at home because i’m just not that social in my personal life. I have a very small circle of friends and most of them are not local, so no… i can’t replicate that experience at home.
I do agree that big multiplexes are not long for this world, but those are precisely the kind of movie going experiences i hate so i don’t care if they survive or not.
Yet no one is talking about this Trolls thing making $100M. People must be really hard up for entertainment.
Not sure I would burn the movie theater connections on this - that DRM’d digital-debut is going to be a hot torrent within minutes. And no more crappy CAM versions!
Between jackholes in the back row throwing pennies and jackholes in front of you with blinding phone screens, I’m good thanks.
I haven’t seen any of the Trolls movie but i have pretty much consistently heard from friends and coworkers that the first one was actually pretty decent. I don’t know if this new one is any good or not but them making that much money doesn’t seem surprising. People who saw the first one are likely renting it to watch with their kids.
Would i see it? Probably not Never say never though.
Most streaming services don’t deliver anything approaching 4k, not that it would matter… Films are still mastered at 2k and possibly up-scaled when it comes to delivery (including your big blockbusters like Avengers End Game, since nearly every shot has vfx rendered in 2k) . And then you’d have compression with most home-streaming services.
Sitting 6 feet away from your 65" 4k screen is great, but all that extra resolution is not really making the difference. Still, you can have a poorer experience in the movie theater, as the screens may have warping or damage, or the projectors might be poorly calibrated… I like the theater for the “je ne sais quoi” of it all… It’s a nostalgic experience… but damn I hate all the fucking commercials they make you sit through now.
I don’t want Movie theaters to go away. I actually love the shift from “cram in 100 people” to making huge comfy seats, some places serve food. Making it an experience (I had this idea in High School, FWIW.)
That said, they need to pivot with the times. Banning Universal? You just forced their hand. They will push direct to streaming so much more.
Redlettermedia pointed out a handful of movies doing this, and they predicted if this makes money, expect to see a lot more movies released this way. This was probably inevitable. But Covid19 will speed up the paradigm shift.
I think it more likely that we’ll see the major US and European chains collapse, with newer companies and (hopefully) independents taking their place.
Or direct ownership by studios.
Most people predicting theaters will go away and be replaced by home streaming are people who just never much liked theaters to begin with and don’t neccisarily understand the appeal of of what some of the better new model theaters are doing. Which is fundementally social and community based like a restaurant or concert venue.
It’s a bit like predicting restaurants will cease to exist cause US consumers are getting used to take out and cooking at home right now. Which is, for the record, a thing I keep hearing.
They may bounce back, but if they take a trip through bankruptcy first that may wipe out stock holders. I had some Worldcom stock when they were caught (or did they self announce?) that they had been mis-stating finials and booking like $2B of phantom revenue or something that seemed huge at the time, but seems a little quaint as corporate malfeasance goes now). Anyway the price dropped so rapidly that I figured “hey each share is worth less then $1 now, I’ll just leave it and see if it recovers”.
Turns out what happened is during bankruptcy the stock was zeroed out and is actually worth $0 now, and new stock was issued (I think to cover the bond holders or something). I don’t know if this is normal or not, but you may want to find out and reassess how much risk you think each stock represents (I don’t doubt that there are a lot of depressed stocks right now that will recover and not go via bankruptcy, but I’ll bet some will do a bankruptcy restructure).
I don’t miss Texas (though I would revisit the Hill Country if given the chance), but I sure miss Alamo Drafthouse. We’ve got Studio Movie Grill out here, which is close, but not quite the same… they don’t have bottles of Shiner Bock or Lone Star at their bar.
Seriously, no reason to go to a theater any more. I was a holdout, since I really like the Drafthouse. But at home, my alcohol selection is better (and cheaper), my food selection is much better (especially the popcorn) and cheaper. Did I mention it’s cheaper? A 65" screen and a soundbar with a sub is a very decent movie watching experience. When everything opens up, and I see Drafthouse is showing something I’d like to sit in a theater for, will I buy a ticket? Sure. Maybe like twice a year. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got some streaming to do.
I too have a nice TV and slightly better then half assed surround sound at home, and really nice seating (plus my “personal” theater has dogs, which is a plus for me). My tolerance for crappy theaters has dropped significantly.
On the other hand the “super premium” theaters around here (which have ticket costs basically the same as the regular theaters) actually have assigned seats (you can pick which seat you get when you buy the tickets) and better sound and while I’m far enough from the screen that the tens-of-feet diagonal screen doesn’t really look that much bigger then my 47" or whatever it is I have would if I actually sat like 4 feet from it, I really don’t sit that close to the TV. So in a theater I either get more immersed, or irritated I have to keep moving my head.
The crowd doesn’t seem to feature cellphone use or screaming babies (and I go see the Star Wars movies & Marvel movies where people do bring younger children!). Being immersed in crowd reactions can be fun.
I would definitely keep going to those, except…at home I can pause the movie and go use the bathroom (or pause the movie when my wife goes). At a theater all I can do is take my best guess as to when the next few minutes will be unimportant.
So yeah, if “first run rentals” are $20, I’ll do that rather then go to even a super premium theater.
Yes, this whole post has been a very long “I agree”, lightly disguised as a “you so wrong!”.
It definitely is. Neither party will be pleased to leave it this way. But I 100% agree with you that this is completely asymmetrical. Theaters have everything to lose, and studios have only some to gain. But if studios allow this business to go away entirely, the way they currently make and market movies will be obsolete and they will undergo a costly period of adaptation.
But to keep theaters viable, they need both of us. Overall ticket sales are down 28% since their high in 2002. That’s only going to continue.
Never say never though.
