Architect of Sweden's no-lockdown plan says he is surprised by death spike

Originally published at:


I’m still hoping that this turns out well for Sweden. They do have other variables as other countries. Behavioural, habitual, cultural - whatever you call it, their samhälle does have differences from, say, Germany. We couldn’t do as they did and do, with similarly good results. Whowzers on how their R0 went down. (But that’s not the only measure to consider, NB.)


What, not having a quarantine means that a pandemic will spread more quickly, resulting in more deaths?




Incidentally, “Death Spike” is also the the name of the event that will serve as both trial-by-combat and popular entertainment in the post-apocalyptic remnant of human society that survives the current pandemic.


also my favorite doom metal band




When you see “9 out 10 doctors recommend…” this is that 10th dr


I have relatives and a friend that are in Sweden so i certainly hope for the best going forward, because the way they’ve handled it so far hasn’t inspired me with a lot of confidence but i’d rather stay optimistic about it. The one thing they have going for them is that they would be able to rally together unlike the US.


Sweden has become both the favorite whipping boy of the American right (“see how much better we’re doing than socialist Sweden!”) and their ideal (“we should be open like forward-thinking Sweden!”) This seems to mainly due to cynical representations of what is happening there. The infection rate in Stockholm is shocking (though still well within the capacity of their excellent centralized health care system), while the rates in Gothenburg and Malmö are at levels comparable to Norway, the latter despite the fact that people from Denmark continue to cross the border to frequent gyms and bars in Malmö.

Other than the shocking mismanagement at the care homes, it isn’t clear how different in practice the voluntary restrictions in Sweden have been from the mandatory restrictions in her neighbors. One major difference is the free hand Tegnell’s office has been given; Swedish policy was almost entirely determined by the health care professionals, rather than politicians as in the US and UK (and Norway and Finland).

As other European countries open up – as they are starting to do – there is likely to be a second wave of infection, whereas there’s no reason for Sweden’s gradual decline to not continue. They might after all become a model for others.


Lol I know right?

What’s interesting though is even if you count deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases it’s 1 in 36 for Norway and 1 in 8 for Sweden. There are no reports that healthcare system in Sweden is overwhelmed, yet more people are dying.

In Russia it’s 1 in 109. It might mean that Russia is the best, or that the numbers on wikipedia are a bit misleading.


There could be something going on…

Maybe it’s a spontaneous self-defenestration epidemic :thinking:


Another factor in Russia is that a lot of these cases haven’t had time to become deaths yet, because they’re still seeing very rapid growth in cases, and a lot of the infected were infected in the last couple of weeks:


…onto a bunch of bullets.


Common last words in communist countries, just before one commits suicide: “Don’t shoot, comrades!”


Maybe he is an architect.

1 Like

TIL “Tegnell” is Swedish for “Kevorkian” :flushed:

1 Like

No, no, no, Dr. Anders Tegnell. Haven’t you learned anything? You’re supposed to say, “fake news”.

1 Like

Sweden are the only country that got it right as far I can see. They took seriously the health consequences of lockdowns and economic depression, and asked the vital question that I think virtually no other country did: once you go into lockdown, how do you actually get out of it? They recognised that lockdowns were effectively a Gordian Knot: a policy countries couldn’t sustain in the long term, but couldn’t exit once they’d started, because the more successful your lockdown, the more you were essentially extending the lifespan of the virus by slowing down immunity levels in the not at-risk population. In the long-term, it was the only economically and psychologically sustainable strategy; in the short-term, the fact is that they are doing either the same or better than most locked-down European countries. The Swedish response, also, is the only one which held fast to the core values of liberal democracy: human freedom and autonomy.


But they have >2k deaths, right? Their death rate is way above countries like New Zealand, Australia, South Korea which locked down in a serious way. Thats a hell of a lot of dead people.