Unlikely, as the polling simply does not bear that out.
Michigan is not even really a swing state anymore but at this point seems most likely to go blue. And Arizona appears to be trending blue as well. If these trends hold, then Biden only needs to win either PA, FL, or NC together with the states nearly certainly in the bag for the Dems to win the election. So Trump is very vulnerable. It’s not inconceivable that Biden gets 300 EVs or more.
Note: this scenario assumes normal conditions. Caveats include: effectiveness of GOP cheating, voter suppression, and Russian interference, plus disruption of normal voting procedures due to the coronavirus. And it’s still 7 months until the election, and we don’t know how this pandemic will play out. But I think a Reagan-esque landslide is on the unlikely end of things.
Agreed that it’s unlikely to be a Regan-esque sweep, but I have to say that with Biden as the candidate, I’m afraid this election is Trump’s to lose. I honestly don’t think Biden can beat him. I’ve said that since before Biden entered the race, and nothing he’s said or done since has changed my mind.
That said, Trump does seem increasingly unhinged and hell-bent on exposing his base to coronavirus, so he may well find a way to lose in the end.
A correction to your otherwise excellent correction… It was really post-Kennedy/Johnson that you see the switch happen full on - it was more a rejection of the increasingly racist GOP in favor of the less racist DNC. The New Deal, as great as it was, left out many categories of labor that were done primarily by African Americans, purposefully, so FDR could get the southern, segregationist democrats to vote for it - this was despite FDRs less racist/segregationist view (and of course, Eleanor went on to be an anti-racist activists, who helped shape the human rights documents of the UN).
But of course, the shift to a less racist Democratic party continued with Truman, who desegregated the military (although he was reluctant to do so). But the full on shift did not really happen until Kennedy. Even so, many white southerners voted democratic until it started to become clear where the party was heading, and Nixon started to make a real play for those voters through the southern strategy. Carter carried the south in 76, I believe, and at least carried GA against Reagan in 80… And Clinton carried southern states, at least some of them, in 92 and 96…
“The President has the power to do what the President has the power to do” is technically true, which is the only kind of truth to ever to pass his lips in an outward direction from his skull. And it’s also true of anyone and anything. You can only do what you can do.
The problem lies in his perception of the limits of his power, and the fact that nobody else in power – or his slavering base – seems to want to hold him to any limits, and haven’t done so since he was elected. Nothing he’s doing is new, it’s just more.
When I saw that he was saying this, all I could think of was:
The thing I think that matters here for our purposes is to realize that the “solid south” has not been so solid within my lifetime… In general the changes to our major parties are not set in stone, and can and have changed, even within our life times… The more we realize that, the more we can exercise a little of our own historical agency…
Massive voter suppression, voter fraud, ballot destruction, hacked voting machines, and possibly legislatures just saying “Fark the people. We will select the electors.” And if worse comes to worst Lord Dampnut declaring emergency powers or martial law or naming himself Emperor knowing that the SCROTUS and Mitch McTurtle will back him all the way.
But Biden has done well in head-to-head polling against Trump for several months now, so in that respect he’s actually a pretty strong candidate. And it’s quite remarkable that he has pivoted to the left since winning the nomination. When was the last time any presidential candidate did that? Biden’s campaign is already more progressive than Hilary’s ever was, and far more than Obama’s in 2008. I have to admit that although Biden wasn’t my preferred candidate, I have started to warm up to the guy and his candidacy.
His lead, such as it was, is shrinking. And just like Clinton he doesn’t realize that the popular vote doesn’t mean shit. The electoral votes still seem to be tilted due Trump.
AZ: Biden 52% Trump 43%
FL: Biden 46% Trump 40%
WI: Biden 48% Trump 45%
All head-to-head national polls have Biden ahead or tied (Fox News).
I’m not saying Trump can’t win reelection. But he clearly has a ceiling in his support, and it’s not enough on its own to carry him over the top. His best chance (bar shenanigans) is to split the Dem vote somehow and/or prevent/dissuade Dems from voting. It might work, but you have to say Biden is in a strong position at this point in the game.
So what? Clinton had a much bigger lead at this stage in 2016 (she was up 10% according to Real Clear Politics), and in April 1984 Mondale and Reagan were polling far closer to one another than the final results turned out. In the current environment Biden can probably get away with a few gaffes that would have ended him in previous campaigns, but I still have zero confidence that he can win without help from Trump.
Don’t misunderstand me, I desperately want him to prove me wrong. I just don’t think he will.
Really? Then he needs to hurry up and review and approve the changes to the local water district, and sign off on the funding for the county roadwork for the month, approve the city council’s motion to open parks to walkers and joggers, get Metro to fund the expansion of the local interstate without tolls, we’ve got the question of urban tree density to answer…I mean, those are all within three miles of where I’m sitting. No wonder he’s so busy…golfing.
I mean, I know he likes the color orange, but can we get the stupid orange barrels off the bridge that was finished five years ago?
Oh I have total confidence that the Democrats can not only win the Presidency but also take back the Senate and keep the House this year. And you should too!
Related: Josh Kraushaar says Trump is now an underdog for a second term:
