Really it just means we can’t grow as much alfalfa for China which wouldn’t even dent California’s economy. We have plenty for people and most crops. Plus the drought seems to be rapidly receding this year.
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People like to think of California as a solidly blue state, but I recently read an article that claimed immigration politics caused the Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot.
As others have mentioned the only reason California has a water shortage is because the state grows so much of the fruit and vegetables consumed across the country and abroad. If California really did ever make a clean break from the rest of the country water wouldn’t be our main issue. There is more than enough water in California for Californians. There just isn’t enough to support everybody else.
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I’d tell you to go look at all of that in depth analysis from Scotland’s last push for independence (The case for it now is better). And all of the equally complex coverage revolving around Brexit. And those are sovereign nations, to one extent or another.
That’s a vast over simplification of things. Just for example. National Parks and Federal land holdings are explicitly and legally the property of the US government. Not as a function of which government is in charge, but in the same way as you own a house or a car. That’ll have to be dealt with, and it looks like that’s 45% of the land mass of the state. Peaceful transition means you’ve got to pay for that or otherwise bargain for a transfer of ownership. Non-peaceful transition means you seize that and deal with whatever international consequences.
Does California have diplomatic relations with the other countries of the world? And to what extend? Gotta build that. Trade deals, alliances. Get accepted to the UN and set foreign policy. What if the US is pretty pissed off and, using its incredible pull with its allies, sets sanctions? Will other nations recognize California as an independant nation, an absolutely critical step in functioning in the world? New nation means back of the line for EU trade relations, and noone in Europe can trade with you until there’s an agreement. Do you simply adopt a form of the US constitution or do you re-write it? Or keep operating under the State Constitution and would that even work? Hows the border work? Citizenship? Those people already in California are still US citizens by default, and the US has certain obligations to them in that regard (and vice versa). So now you’ve got a duel citizenship thing going on. If the border remains porous and you’ve got people who work on the other side (or both sides like all those bi-coastal entertainment biz people) so now you need a tax treaty! With the country you just escaped from! Fun! Speaking of which how many of those major bushiness pop over to the nearest state so they can continue to enjoy the market benefits of being in the US? Do you allow that? Can you disallow that? How’s that all handled?
And so on and so forth. There is ample opportunity in all of it for things to get very unstable and very fucked up. And in no case will it ever be as simple as California chugging along just as it is now, with just a change of management.
That’s a bit over simplified. Cali’s economy won’t be magically changing over night. And food exports are a major feature of international trade these days. It isn’t just other states Cali is sending food to these days. And what I was getting at that even if there’s enough water around for California itself as an isolationist state with agriculture just to meet its needs. Global warming and the advancing drought mean that may not be the case for ever.
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I’m sure there would be no end to the logistical problems of California splitting off as an independent nation. I’m just saying that “California depends on other states for its water” isn’t really one of the biggest ones since the rest of the country couldn’t cut off the water supply without sacrificing a huge portion of its own food supply.
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Gotcha, that’s a good point.
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Easy enough. Don’t appoint any electors.
Perhaps it would work if California tried returning to Mexico. The Mexican government is angry enough now to maybe support it.
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Mexico still has the best street tacos but San Francisco’s Mission district has made wondrous advances in burrito technology since the border was moved south.
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How about California just gets Arizona and Utah too?
Unfortunately, it’s people who will get caught up in the fire. Real, live people, and not all those who are conservative or voted for Trump. the ability to leave at will is not universal. Many people can’t afford to leave where they are.
And the people who are spearheading this movement are not necessarily liberals and likely don’t have your or my (or anyone but their own) interest at heart.
As for whether or not California can sustain itself… maybe.
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From my position on this side of the Atlantic, I can see parallels between the Calexit stirrings and the Scottish referendum. And there’s a couple of common arguments, which seem to boil down to “We are people with our own interests and priorities. It’s not our job to keep saving you from yourselves politically”.
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I agree with you that succession is a very serious decision requiring a great deal of thought and preparation, but at this point in history I’m pretty confident that the U.N. would welcome California as a nation to take the place that the U.S. is actively working to leave behind.
Wrong side of the continent. California’s closest trade countries are in east and southeast Asia.
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F’that. My daddy always told me “never live more than 100 miles from a coast.” (He really did.) Why the hell would anyone liberal want to purposefully move to an antithetical place?
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The UN is generally loath to recognize break away states. And the US has that whole security council thing allowing them to unilaterally nuke recognition. So the recognition of any break away US state is largely contingent of the US leaving the UN. Recognition of your new nation by other nations. Through the UN or individually is neccisary for things like foreign aid, loans, military or diplomatic support. Things you generally need even to get to independence. This exact dynamic has crippled more than a few new nations/revolutionary attempts. Including the CSA.
California’s closest trade partners are the rest of the US. Trade partners they will likely be cut off from unless the process is amenable and peaceful, which I think is incredibly unlikely.
None the less similar road blocks to continuing trade and relations with Asian countries as is, exist. And a new nation essentially discarding access to one of the largest markets in the world, is going to find itself with a suddenly shrunken economy. To say nothing of what this all means for whatever currency they launch. Even with strong production and trade deals. If your new currency flops you’ve got a cratered ecconomy.
None of this is to say any of these things are insurmountable. Simply that it is in no way as simple and immediate as popping out a wholly formed, as is, functioning nation. Recent history has very few examples of new countries that don’t go through significant periods of instability and economic turmoil. Most go through a long period where inherent inequality is the order of the day. Off the top of my head, the countries that best avoided that were countries leaving the UK but staying in the common wealth. And the Axis nations under occupation after WWII. In those cases you’re talking about a new state, or new government being heavily propped up by a significantly richer, more stable outside state (or multiple outside states). Who will prop up an American State that breaks off from the US? The US is very unlikely to do so. As are the EU as a block. The UK did Brexit, but that’s likely to have serious impacts on their stability and wealth. So Russia and China. Which sounds like an awesome pathway to a progressive utopia!
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How about “no”?
Why would we want a bunch of right wing white conservatives? Utah is the most racist place I’ve ever lived. (Wyoming is the most racist place I’ve ever visited though.)
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Because they are still woefully underrepresented and after a generation of Californian politics those states would get better.
I was joking that California should take more of the US, not pull away.
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Not unless you get rid of the Mormon Church…
California and Utah would probably have to do some kind of relationship counseling to help work past that “sabotaging California’s efforts to legalize same-sex marriage by sending in out-of-state money to fund Prop 8” thing.
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Don’t forget the Catholics.
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