California reports first coronavirus death, and Los Angeles county declares emergency

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None of the LA cases are connected to “community spread”


Can someone tell me definitively whether this will all have been an overreaction to what ended up being a handful of deaths, or whether this will be as bad or worse as it seems it could be? My anxiety would appreciate come clarification, at least.

ETA: I should have perhaps made more clear that this request is tongue in cheek. I realize no one can give an answer, anyone pretending otherwise is not realistic. That’s that part that gives anxiety.


Unfortunately, no.

At least not while this is still ongoing.

No, they cannot. None of us are any better at foreseeing the future than you, I’m afraid. Even the experts can only offer ‘range’ guesses. The UK’s most senior medic types said maybe in the very worst case 80% might get it, 1% might die of it, 20% might be self-isolating/mildly ill at home and absent from work for a while/at any point in time. But probably it will be nowhere near as bad. Or not. And that’s the UK - based on what they think they know about local capabilities, etc. Your local circumstances will probably be different.

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The best way to feel better is to read the actual epidemiological experienced experts.

You will read a lot of “we do not know yet” but you will also read rational analysis of what we do know and what it means.

Knowledge is empowering, you will feel better reading them.

These are among the best in their fields, smart, honest science only:


If only people treated the afterlife and religion with such clarity we wouldn’t have all these pesky wars.

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Better an overreaction than an underreaction. If it does transpire that the measures were not needed, call it a dry run for “the big one”.


Best you are gonna get are estimates based on what has happened so far. This is a new virus with no track record to speak of, and “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Having said that, it shows no sign of slowing, and is clearly not playing games. Not an answer, but all there is for now.


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