Canada's election, in which Justin Trudeau's chickens come home to roost

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2019/10/22/tar-sands-r-him.html

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A small, but very real hit: Jody Wilson-Raybould won her reelection.

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But Puglaas in Vancouver won her seat. She was liberal last time, and was kicked out, so she ran as an independent.

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The buried lede: this will force Trudeau to form a coalition government with Jagmeet Singh and his NDP Party, which I’m looking forward to.

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Or he plays the NDP and the block off each other. He can cherry pick the progressive things he wants to support and then work with which ever party is asking for the least.

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This seems like a good outcome. Justin gets a spanking, the NDP gets to dictate progressive terms of co-operation, and the Tories are sidelined from doing serious damage for a few years.

And while it’s sad that the party of crypto-racism picked up more seats in Quebec, the new party of overt right-wing populist racism (including its leader and his “star” candidate, the widow of noted crack addict Rob Ford) didn’t get one seat.

As you note, the long-term danger of continuing with business-as-usual Third Way neoliberalism is still present (see this article, for example), and Trudeau could be foolish enough to try to court the Bloc Quebecois instead of the NDP. Still, I’ll choose to look at this result as Canada choosing to remain one of the world’s dwindling number of liberal democracies for at least another few years.

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Trudeau will rightfully see this as a win. He’ll be able to continue to govern basically how he wants. You’ll notice that Singh’s list of demands didn’t include the pipeline; Trudeau can count on Conservative votes to prop that up whenever he needs. Trudeau can just play the 3 opposition parties off against each other and ignore the Greens. Sure he’ll eventually fall on a budget bill where that is tough in a minority situation, but I predict he’ll be able to govern basically unchecked for at least 24 months.

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Now do the Cons, Cory. Actual nazis. To elucidate on JWR centrist who suggests First Nations get not nation status but pseudo municipal status. https://foolfromthehill.home.blog/2019/10/04/jodi-wilson-raybould-is-a-bloody-hypocrite/

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As I recall, Alberta’s NDP government that preceded the current Conservative one was just as supportive of pipelines. Singh is probably stuck placating his short-sighted party members in that province.

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Will it though? The LCP supported the minority CPC around 70 times to keep Harper in power. The LPC haven’t shown the best judgement in the last session, they could easily court the Bloc, or the CPC even. Hard to expect good things from a dude who broke a promise to a dying Gord Downie in front of a whole nation. I mean, he’s better than Scheer, but that’s a pretty low bar. Though Mr Singh’s Punjabi Poutine recipe is pretty revelatory. FPTP, eh?

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Yep, JT’s government has been a disappointment, to put it mildly. So many compromises, so many mis-steps. I think the tempering of the Liberals apparent lack of conviction in their stated ideals by the need to secure NDP support will be a good thing. His government may actually be held accountable for following through on the hard choices.

One thing for sure, though. This is a better outcome than Dimples in a coalition with BQ. Now THAT would be shit-show.

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I’m personally encouraged by this outcome. Holding the Liberal party to its progressive promises is now something that the NDP can enforce directly, which IMHO was the one significant missing piece of the Federal puzzle.

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I don’t know. NDP has greater strength in BC and the opposition from constituents there probably outweighs support from Alberta NDP.

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Canada doesn’t deserve her. I was disappointed, but not surprised that Jane Philpott didn’t win as well.

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Given the crazy way that votes have translated into seats:

Will Canada now recognise the need for voting system reform? no, probably not

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Of course not. The three parties with the most seats (and the only ones who could make it happen) would lose out because of it. They have no incentive. When Trudeau realized that his preferred electoral reform option (ranked ballot) wasn’t what the public wanted, he dropped the whole thing.

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well the only guy who ran on reform just realized that actual reform will mean he’ll lose. So no.

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It’s absurd. 6.5% gets 3 seats, 7.7% gets 32. It doesn’t reflect how people voted by any measure.

@doctorow I noticed you didn’t mention this (probably because the list is long enough), but refusing to fix the broken electoral system after he promised repeatedly that he would is his biggest failing.

It’s the root issue of problems caused by not having constituents represented fairly. Many Canadians don’t vote due to the apathy caused by how broken it is, or are forced to vote strategically because they know they won’t be fairly represented if they vote for a non Liberal or Conservative candidate.

Proportionate representation makes MPs more accountable to their constituents, who know that their votes do count. This makes them less accountable to corporate donors and lobbyists, and even the party whip.

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