Got a citation? I’m not doubting you, I’m curious about the details.
The pressure to game the counts is the reason that the metric I’ve been watching is test positivity rate. My fear is that there will be rationing of tests, with priorities assigned so that only patients with a low index of suspicion get tested. After all, certain politicians will stop at nothing to game the metrics.
As you have said repeatedly, WDKS. And the worst case for this one is still up in the range of 14th-Century Europe.
(Of course, I’m grumpy today. My wife’s asthma is playing up, with the result that we’re under a quarantine order until her COVID-19 test results are back. Nobody really suspects it, there’s no fever, no loss of smell or taste, no malaise, just the cough and chest congestion, but them’s the rules.)
My former university had a similar set-up. They are apparently now offering meals to go. So the same pretty good food, but potentially less. (I hope the students are getting a discount, but suspect not.)
Whew! The studies you linked to suggest that the excess all-cause mortality was in the range of 125-130% of what was reported as ‘COVID-19 related deaths.’ That’s in the range of what I already suspected. When you said ‘ugly’, I was thinking of ‘order of magnitude’ ugliness!
My prediction stands, though. I think in the coming months, once rural areas start seeing consistent mortality, even the staunchest Republicans are going to doubt the numbers. When you actually know the people who die, it is harder to swallow the lies.
I wonder how many disbelievers there are in places where they had/have freezer trucks and mass graves.
Never underestimate the power of exceptionalism! (Sure, Grandma died of it, but she was so very unlucky!)
You could be right, though. The states that were hit hardest early (NJ, NY, MA, CT) are now among the ones doing best. But for a counterexample, Georgia’s early numbers were as bad as those in Massachusetts, which didn’t stop it from a second wave worse than the first - and we don’t have any idea how much worse. So having been hard hit is no guarantee that a community will continue to mount an appropriate response.
What appears to be the most politically likely outcome is that this thing continues at close to the current level of intensity for a generation. The response will get less rational as the mental health of the population deteriorates, from lack of human contact if nothing else.
As far as my own experience, the replies I get from rural Kentucky can be summed up as “Yeah, a few people are getting sick, but nobody has died from it…”
Those kinds of places are the sea of Republican red, surrounding the Blue, urban counties where people really are dying. It’s one of those weird things where the isolation of rural America, the more sedentary nature of the elderly in those places., etc., happens to coincidentally reinforce their politicizing of the disease.
I don’t think it can last though. We are almost at saturation, and at that point, one packed church revival or family reunion could set rural areas ablaze with covid. That is coming, I’m afraid.
For comparison in Poland, and most other countries comprising European Union higher education is tuition-free, but we don’t get granola bars, chips and a lemons.
South Dakota state health officials announced Thursday that a person who worked at a tattoo shop in Sturgis had tested positive for the virus, and could have possibly exposed people during the event last week.
The person was an employee of Asylum Tattoo Sturgis, and could have spread the virus to others on August 13-17 from 10 a.m. to 2 a.m., officials said.
Earlier this week, officials said a person who spent hours at a bar during the rally had also tested positive. That individual visited One-Eyed Jack’s Saloon in Sturgis on August 11 from noon to 5:30 p.m. while able to transmit the virus to others, health officials said.
Anyone who visited either the tattoo shop or the saloon, which are located at the same address, during that period should monitor for symptoms for 14 days after the visit.
