in the us, we can’t even manage tracking of who’s actually dying of coronavirus all that well. ( the excess deaths this year indicate tracking has probably missed more than 75k people ). so the step from there to genetically tracing whether a particular strain is more or less deadly would be difficult.
that said, to me, the idea that it mitigates it’s deadliness over time “for reasons” seems unlikely. did smallpox or polio ever become less deadly? and even if a mutated strain was somehow less deadly, would our immune system necessarily even view the covid-19 strain and some new covid-20 strain as the same? why wouldn’t we be just as likely to get sick with both?
for an even more depressing thought, covid-19 mutated from a less deadly disease into a more deadly disease… so either direction for some new independently infectious variant seems just as likely down the line.
i think ( my random opinion ) that the most we can hope for is that the vaccines work, and that the virus is stable enough that we don’t need a new vaccine variant every year like we do for the flu.
i’ven’t heard really what the reasons are. is this all due to bars and restaurants opening, to seasonal changes, to travel? ( or d, all of the above. )
i guess my impression was that european countries “re-opening” didn’t mean the same sort of loose, life-as-normal situation as has been being encouraged here.
This is just a guess (i.e. I haven’t read a good breakdown of causes), but here in France, it sure looks like it’s because during the summer everyone got comfortable going back to socializing in bars and restaurants, and being incredibly lax about wearing masks properly (or at all), even once it became mandatory to wear them everywhere. And then all the kids went back to school…
The situation in Poland is getting so bad that the government is converting largest stadium in Warsaw into hospital. They even created a website to recruit workers: https://szpitalnarodowy.pl/
It’s grotesque how cheerful that recruitment site is, especially considering what is going to happen.
So my workplace is down due to another COVID positive. That makes three shut downs in so many months. Heavy population of trumper employees has it’s consequences.
This is something I really haven’t seen coverage about, with the exception of last weekend’s SOSFest (hashtag Save Our Stages). I’m seeing news stories and blog posts galore about restaurants and bars losing business and going under, but not about performance venues and all the related people affected. From Broadway down to the little theatres in barns, arenas and auditoriums, music clubs and karaoke rooms, anywhere there is a stage, there’s an entire swath of performers and support staff that haven’t worked since the spring. And there’s little to no relief, either in the form of grants or loans, that most can qualify for.
Definitely an industry the Republicans would like to see die.
Scott Baio, who himself played Chachi on Happy Days over 30 years ago and is the biggest star the Trump campaign can muster, didn’t take either announcement well.
Some of these physical interpretations of the importance of HCW, portrayed battling physical interpretations of SARS-CoV-2, are creative and compelling. A collision of The Now and ancient traditions.
Babu Pal, the secretary of the artisans association of Kumartuli, the street in Kolkata where most Durga Puja icons are made, spoke of the inspiration behind the Coronasura they had made for a customer.
“Corona is the demon that everybody recognises, it is the demon that everybody is fighting, and we are all looking for the strength to defeat it,” said Pal of the sculpture. “Also we had no Covid cases in our artisans area, and we wanted to make this icon to thank the goddess for protecting us from the demon of corona here.”
Kokata, in the state of West Bengal, India.
Folks, here’s the COVID dashboard for West Bengal:
So people who are sick are being asked to do their own contract tracing?
If they need to go on ventilators, will they be asked to find those for themselves?
I have often heard the following, from Republicans patient enough to explain their view to me: “that government is best which governs least.”
We’ve talked about challenge trials before. I just don’t think they will generate the kind of data that is needed, and will put people needlessly at risk. We don’t really need to know how well a vaccine works in those at least risk (but not no risk, keep in mind) of severe complications, we need to know how it works in the elderly and those at higher risk. We will not know that after these trials, assuming they go forward. The only reason to do them is to speed the delivery of a vaccine that will have no data on those at highest risk, because gathering that data takes more time. Therefore, the mass distribution of said vaccine effectively becomes the phase 3 trial for the higher risk population. It is a set-up for a disastrous roll-out, not to mention the ethical implications of deliberately infecting young, healthy people with a virus that can cause debilitating long term effects that we really do not understand yet. I really do understand the desperation to get something done, but half-assing this could be the worst of all options, certainly worse than taking the time to actually do it right.
The UK currently has among the highest national coverage of flu vaccine in the world, vaccinating around 75% of the over-65s against flu every year; most countries either do worse or have no vaccination programmes for older people. It is reasonable to expect that this level of coverage could be achieved for a Covid-19 vaccine in that age group in the UK.
Therefore, if the Covid-19 vaccine is 75% effective – meaning that 75% of those vaccinated become immune – then we would actually only protect 56% of that target population (75% of 75%). This would not be enough to stop the virus circulating.
And other cohorts are worse. Meanwhile the US is floating accepting a vaccine that is 50% effective, and the current majority party are a bunch of anti-vaccine psychopaths who are actively rooting for the virus.
