Rock on, Captain Janeway.
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Today, Tokyo reported 4,058 new cases of COVID-19. On Tuesday, it was 2,848 and that was a new record at the time.
They’re still doing the Olympics…
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It’s the happiest vaccinatedest place on Earth!
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Thanks for linking this. I am struggling to keep up on all fronts, and you’re doing me a great service pointing me to articles worth skimming, reading, and sharing.
True, WDKS. And very true, we are learning.
@all, I really suggest you click through. It’s rewarding l, especially from the paragraph “There’s probably a limit to how bad the coronavirus can get” onwards.
The piece does a really good work to summarize some knowns and unknowns about evolutionary possibilities of SARS-CoV-2. The knowns are a bit short in some parts, and that’s totally ok for a popsci article. I just want to emphasize on the educated guesses:
The virus’s genome is almost 30,000 nucleotide bases long. That’s orders of magnitude simpler than our genetic code, which is around 3 billion bases long. But still, the virus’s genome has a lot of locations where a mutation can occur. It’s just not feasible to individually test what a change at any one of those locations would do to the structure and behavior of the virus.
That’s both true and not the whole truth. The phrase ‘a lot of places where a mutation can occur’ is absolutely correct. However, the number of locations which can occur is limited by many factors. I’m no expert on Coronaviruses, nor on molecular genetics, but I have a basic understanding of the latter. As far as my understanding goes, experts can:
- identify parts of the genome which cannot be changed due (e.g. due to a loss of function on various levels, from structural integrity of the nucleocapsid to protein folding issues)
- likewise, identify parts which are available for evolutionary change
- identify parts and even nucleotide positions which are likely to undergo evolutionary change
Some of it is of course deducing from what we know about other Coronaviruses, including the SARS and MERS viruses. Some is deducing from already observed mutations in SARS-CoV-2 some of it is based on our understanding of function and structure of the virus (e.g., the spike proteins role and structure), some of it is based on our understanding of molecular biology (e.g., base exchange probability rates, protein folding stability, functional domains and their molecular interaction with other molecules).
That’s an awful lot of words to emphasize while everyone who says they would know for sure how exactly the virus will evolve is likely ‘full of it’, we do know even more than what the article can transport. And that doesn’t even touch our understanding of evolutionary theory, as mentioned in the article.
whew. I spent an hour on my phone tying this without realising. Damn, and it didn’t even wind me down.
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Particularly poignant coming from someone who had been stuck in the Delta Quadrant for so long.
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My vegan got the shot the instant she could. She’s an adult living in NYC, so it’s not like her mom forced her to do it.
This is just an excuse, like any other ‘belief’ exemption. And will end up being yet another way to denigrate vegans and make them look like extremists. Plus, be yet another way for people to get out of doing their civic duty by getting the vaccine.
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“ Among the Continental regulars in the American Revolution, 90 percent of deaths were caused by disease, and Variola the small pox virus was the most vicious of them all. (Gabriel and Metz 1992, 107)
On the 6th of January 1777, George Washington wrote to Dr. William Shippen Jr., ordering him to inoculate all of the forces that came through Philadelphia. He explained that: “Necessity not only authorizes but seems to require the measure, for should the disorder infect the Army . . . we should have more to dread from it, than from the Sword of the Enemy.” The urgency was real. Troops were scarce and encampments had turned into nomadic hospitals of festering disease, deterring further recruitment. Both Benedict Arnold and Benjamin Franklin, after surveying the havoc wreaked by Variola in the Canadian campaign, expressed fears that the virus would be the army’s ultimate downfall. (Fenn 2001, 69)”
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Considering breakthrough infections: PREPRINT from Singapore
From the abstract:
Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response.
Bottom line: mRNA vaccination protects against severe illness even in breakthrough infections with the Delta variant B.1.617.2. However, viral load is still really high in the first five days of a breakthrough infection.
Own take:
get vaccinated to protect yourself,
wear a mask to protect others,
stay careful.
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Aug 9, when the Canadian side of the border opens to fully vaccinated Americans, I have the feeling that it’s going to be wall-to-wall prima donnas demanding “their rights!” or trying to pass fake paper like these idiots.
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I mean… great idea, Don Jr! Let’s do it!
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Just like back during the Blitz, when people with certain dietary habits were allowed to keep their lights on and curtains open.
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Basically these people became a strawman. I think this must be the correct fallacy, these days we have so many of them running wild over the internet that I’ve lost count…
I agree that we should be true to ourselves, but in times like these we live in, everyone should make some sacrifices for everyone’s sake.
What?
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In a manifesto shared with the group in early January, Fagan argues that behavioral science has an ethics problem: “I should know: I was formerly the Lead Psychologist at Cambridge Analytica, and I’ve since worked for tobacco companies, gambling sites, and voter deterrence campaigns.”
Fagan’s paper, titled “Pushing Back against the Nudges,” announces the launch of a “Counter-Nudge Unit” designed to push back on government messaging regarding the pandemic.
“Are we the baddies?”
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I’d like to give them a nudge they’ll remember.
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I am certain that was meant as a very dry joke: of course people’s personal beliefs weren’t allowed to get in the way of the safety of entire communities during wartime.
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