Coronavirus: First possible person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 in California

He also seems mad about it’s effect on the stock market, which is a crappy thing to worry about during an epidemic.


That is a good point.

Luckily we can all take precautions so even if no symptom folks are out, we have a counter move. Hand washing, do not touch your face.

They will not be coughing or sneezing either if asymptomatic so less of the activity that spreads it.

It is not airborne, it is droplet based, no sneeze, no cough, no runny nose… much reduced transmissibability.

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Also: Read the Journal of the American Medical Association’s report on the virus so far.

It made me feel somewhat better, while still knowing we are going to be dealing with this for at least the next several months.

Fatality rate in Huebi, the epicenter: 2.3%, outside of Huebi, 0.4%

Much better response from the Chinese government this time compared to MERS/SARS.

Keep in mind going forward, the real experts are telling us: Jumps in case numbers over the next days to weeks will likely be because of increased testing, not because anything has changed in the spread of the virus, so most of this data below will hold true, and we will gain more, much needed data from that testing to get even more accurate numbers than presented here.


Many epidemiologists now suspect that it is likely to become endemic, and that 40-70% of the world’s population will eventually get the Coronavirus.

This is going to be very bad.


I am well aware of that.

That is why it is important to deal in facts, not emotions.

I can do math too, so no need to do it for me.

Fatality rate in Huebi, the epicenter: 2.3%, outside of Huebi, 0.4%

And read the report.

80% mild symptoms, no fatalities
14% sever symptoms, no fatalities
5% critical symptoms, half of those are fatal
2.5% fatality rate.

So, ya, using the 40-70% number, any of us can do the math.

But also the perspective is important.

Most folks will be affected by having to take care of themselves or loved ones through a mild flu like illness.

And dealing with all the folks not able to work.

But there is a lot to learn. No idea how fast this is going to happen, lots of things
are slowing this while comms, science, response, resources catch up to make it as manageable as possible.

It is going to be difficult, we have gotten through things like this before, but we will if we stay cool.

Many parts of the world go through this every god damn day, there are epidemics all over the world killing people. They get through it and deal with it, so will we. And maybe we will come out of it helping everyone, because we are all in this together.


On the positive side, from a molecular biology/immunology/computing perspective, we have never had the technology and knowledge that we currently have. It is theoretically possible that we can streamline the development and implementation of effective vaccines much faster than ever before, fast enough to eventually curtail this virus.


I don’t disagree with you. Still, it’s good to prepare in ways that you can.

For example, if you haven’t gotten your seasonal flu shot yet, go get it today. It won’t protect you from covid, but it might prevent a trip to the hospital in a time when the hospital really can’t manage another patient.


Assuming these numbers hold up (they seem accurate at this point in time), it will be the 20% ranging from severe to critical that will make all the difference. The healthcare system is not set up for this. At all. If you are in the severe to critical category and there is no medical help available because those resources are completely tapped out, the numbers for fatality will go up. I do not know where this is going, but I prefer to plan for the worst and hope for the best.


Exhaustion of medical services is not happening in the US at this time. I am sure it has in China and other countries with marginal medical systems to start with.

This is why COMMUNICATIONs is key.

We need to make sure folks do not flood ER’s and Doctors offices as much as possible.

Mildly sick, stay home and self care, there is not much to do for it anyway.

Not sure if you are critical? Probably call 911 and consult them.

Critical? Call 911.

Also, I have to assume exhaustion of medical services is already baked into the China Huebi numbers. Those numbers are essentially with medical service exhaustion I am sure.


Agreed, totally. There comes a limit, and things tend to fall apart after that.


It might be possible to have both at the same time, and I would imagine the combination is less survivable.

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That’s what I think is truly horrible. Imagine if a Cat 5 hurricane was headed for Miami and he started complaining about it’s negative effect on FL real estate prices…oh yeah, and the safety of US citizens, too.


There’s been dozens of moments of “this is a broken person who shouldn’t be president”. Not providing vaccines for citizens is unforgivable. We’ll be the only country not do so. I don’t know if this will matter any more than any of Trump’s other failures as a human, but it’s one of the worst.


You don’t have to imagine much.

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Well this sure doesn’t feel like a good time to live in a California city that happens to be a major travel hub where many people (including myself) depend on crowded mass transit systems for commuting.


I’m sure he means to get a vaccine to every single American and pay “free market prices” for it

with public money

That’s what the pharma companies are going to want

Alex Michael Azar II is an American attorney, politician, pharmaceutical lobbyist, and former drug company executive who serves as the United States Secretary of Health




That article does a great job of summarizing many aspects of the situation right now. Read it!

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