Democrats take House, GOP tightens grip on Senate


As a resident of Canada, I regard us as a republic, not a monarchy. If the Queen ever actually tried to do anything to affect Canadian law we’d see whether I’m right. I don’t regard a monarch as a person who draws a big crowd for their Christmas address, I regard them as a person who has genuine power.


I don’t have photoshop, but would love to see one of Snow White as Pelosi, the GOP evil queen in her old crone disguise, and the apple labeled bipartisan marketplace of ideas.


That’s my feeling - that increasingly Republicans have drunk the cool-aid and tied their fates to his. There are those who decried Trump initially and then cynically buddied up to make use of him - I could see them trying to throw Trump under the bus to save their own political futures. I just think they may have entangled themselves enough with him at this point that it won’t work.

Yeah, I think that’s what’s going to have to happen before Republican politicians are willing to go against him. But I don’t see that happening for a few years - it’ll take a while before Trump’s promises are revealed to be the hollow farces that they are (e.g. the economy going seriously sour because of his policies) and that realization overcomes the Trump fantasy (and Trump voters’ racism).


See that may be where we’re talking at Cross purposes.

I don’t think most of them have drunk the koolaid as in truly buying into Trump’s shit. Even for those who did, I don’t think they’ll risk themselves for the sake of ideology. This is not what bunch of people who are willing to die on a hill for the sake of principal. Too many of them are openly making excuses. We can control him, he’ll let us pass our agenda, all that matters is the supreme Court. A good chunk of these people are not true believers.

Where I think they have almost totally bought in. Is that they definitely almost to a one (bar all those who have walked), believe that Trump is their tickets they really believe they’re a heavy majority. They really believe they’re the real America. They really believe this is working. And that Trump will keep them embedded.

And they will work very, very hard to find proof of how right they are in that regard until it’s very much too late.

I don’t think Trump’s true base, who are their absolute largest are about half the GOP voter base, will lose interest due to unfulfilled promises. A lot of those people don’t really expect those promises to be kept, and elwhen Trump has failed or backed off on things they accept it and spin it. But a bunch of the right that supports him for cynical or tribal reasons. They’ll get pretty discouraged if the over all non Trump agenda continues to struggle and fail. If Trump is an obstacle to that as opposed to a pathway, then supporting the GOPs guy to get GOP things done. Doesn’t work.


While at the same time heavily emphasizing oversight, especially of the Executive Branch.


Once again: the GOP base is overwhelmingly white and skewed towards wealth. Poor people vote leftist.

Anyone continuing to try and blame Trump on poor rednecks or “the white working class” is either ignorant or lying.



Interesting: once you control for party, gender had almost no influence.

(of course, gender has a fairly strong influence on party ID to start with)

Also interesting:


To compare with 2016:


51%, 52% is not overwhelmingly skewed, it’s a pretty close call. I think the real issue is the dems are overwhelmingly skewed towards folks who don’t vote. That changed somewhat this time around, and we must make damned certain it does not slide back, and fight voter suppression, which is always aimed at historically oppressed groups, where ever it raises it’s ugly head.


Overwhelmingly white…


…skewed towards wealth.

The adjective was only intended to apply to the first subject.


That’s true enough. My other statements stand, I think. :wink:


Generally, yeah.

However, you can expect levels of voter suppression to sharply increase between now and 2020, and there isn’t a whole lot that can be done about that within conventional channels.

If Kemp wins, the other GOP states will use Georgia as a model for next time. If he loses, they’ll get even more extreme.


Yes. Over a third of the people who voted earn $100k or more. Even voter suppression only accounts for a tiny fraction of the no-shows in the lower income brackets.


Agreed. The people who are getting screwed the most are the least likely to vote. These things are not unrelated. Dems need to think about how to go about voter engagement and education, and I am not necessarily talking about the party machine. Talking about issues in a nonconfrontational and factual way at work, school, social encounter, whatever is probably more effective than tv commercials and newspaper ads.


Not just talking, doing. Like this:

Or this:

Or this:

Serve the people.

If they wanted to, the Dems could establish a free health clinic in every city in the country.

Infographic shows the Blue Wave in action

Chuck Todd was just talking about turnout and spread. 103 million votes cast, 52% dem, 46% rep, 2% other. He speculates that the spread will rise to 7 points after final counts are in. Not a bad night overall. Gear up for local elections in 2019, and the all out war that will be 2020. No rest for the weary.


But you would be in power. In power and in a position to do something about election and voting reform. Okay, it’d be via executive order so it would only last until they could overturn it, but it’d be in place for the next election which pushes things in your favour. Do you honestly think they’d have won as many seats if they weren’t disenfranchising voters, or if the voting machines all worked correctly, or even do it properly with paper ballots that can be checked?


I guess by “drinking the cool aid” I don’t necessary mean believing in Trump himself (which few politicians do), but buying into his racist/nationalist (and lack of concern for norms or rule-of-law) approach. Which, I suppose, the never-Trumpers turned suck-ups have also done, but to a lesser degree. Once they’ve bought into that, it seems to me that it would be hard to extricate themselves from Trump while also continuing that approach. But maybe it isn’t, so much.

I keep thinking about this, and what it means for both Trump and post-Trump politics:


Well, you also have to remember that those lower income groups are disproportionately made up of minorities so they could still skew Democrat overall even if a majority of “the white working class” voted Trump.


I don’t have race by income tabs for 2018 yet, but in 2016 the patterns held.

Whiteness was the strongest variable, followed by wealth, followed by education. Poor white people voted for Trump at higher rates than poor PoC, but still at lower rates than wealthy white people.

On average, the Trumpist base is white, wealthy and ignorant.