Good read. It’s good to see the difference between Hillary and Bernie in terms of what each means for the future of the party becoming more and more clear to writers, and hopefully to more voters. Here’s another:
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I’ve seen that, but a lot of that polling is limited and old, and Sanders hasn’t had anything like the name recognition that Clinton has until very recently. I’d expect to see those gaps to close, particularly after yesterday.
I don’t see any particular reason for Clinton to be more popular in less-white states, unless her less-progressive positions are genuinely more popular (which they might be, but then again she’s been denying that she is less progressive).
He has more of an issue with the superdelegates all going with her, meaning he needs to win the popular votes something like 2:1 to overcome that, and the closed primaries are also against him, because he’s crushing her amongst independents. My hope is that those superdelegates wouldn’t dare to overturn the result the voters want.
I am going to be particularly interested to see in S.C. how his apparent popularity with younger voters interacts with hers amongst African-Americans.
I think the results will be closer that 538 thinks, because those are all based on models, and the last candidate I can see that looked a bit like Sanders was George McGovern. Might be that the models just don’t fit well.
In a moment of optimism, I was idly wondering/googling about potential Veeps for Sanders. Assuming Warren won’t run, how about Tammy Baldwin, or Donna Edwards? Perhaps Keith Ellison?
(I suspect Clinton would like either Julian Castro or O’Malley? Perhaps Kirsten Gillibrand? But she might need to pick someone further left of her, with Sanders doing as well as he is)
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I do wonder how the logic runs. It could just be Hillary coasting on name-recognition. That is one of the weak points of the Sanders campaign - they haven’t been able to spread much recognition to where people live, thanks to HC’s domination of the media sphere. The more news he makes, the less that’ll be true - maybe it’s about time for him to make a big splash in some ways. Which is a little un-hcharacteristic of him, but maybe the shot in the arm that he needs to turn his roaring engines to escape velocity.
But I dunno. Hillary’s got more time, more trust, more cachet…while that’s exactly what Bernie supporters DON’T like about her, it’s possible that outside the sphere of angry white people (of which there are MANY), that being a public presence for two decades and being more popular with news-idiots is more of a benefit than a liability.
I’m fond of Tammy Baldwin as a former Wisconsinite, and Donna Edwards seems pretty exciting. I think Warren would make a better president than a Veep, personally, and as Sanders’ veep would be kind of recruiting people that Sanders is already popular with.
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I’m quite prepared to accept that my pasty white coastal liberal / European social democratic view of where the Dems should be isn’t representative of the party at large (in fact, I’m sure it isn’t - I think self-identifying liberals are about 40% of the party) - if Clinton is genuinely more representative of the party then fair enough, she deserves to be the party’s candidate.
If she is, I won’t be contributing to her campaign or putting up Clinton signs though.
Warren won’t be Veep. I’d rather she stays as a Senator and runs for President in a few years (ideally, when Sanders retires after 4 years of President).
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I think Rand Paul is responsible for Rand Paul’s failed campaign.
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I think that Sanders is probably more representative, he’s just less well-known. If he grabs the attention of the news-idiots for a cycle or two, gets a chance to talk about what’s really important when he’s got the spotlight, that difference could evaporate. He doesn’t have a penchant for the theatrical, so I think his media adviser should maybe push him to do something a maybe a little dumb and corny but that gives him a chance to get some attention. What that is…well, I’m no media adviser. 
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I hope that things like this continue help Sanders to close the differences:
If Clinton keeps hoovering up the party endorsements, while Sanders collects the activist ones, that might work well for him.
He did SNL the other day, didn’t he?
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I’m a tad surprised (pleasantly, though) to see how close Wisconsin is for Sanders. If he can appeal to the voters who miss Russ Feingold and William Proxmire, I think he can overtake Clinton. In spite of 2010’s electoral disasters, there’s still a very large union member base in the state.
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I think it’s pretty amazing that the state that gave birth to Joseph McCarthy is seriously considering a man who puts “Socialist” on his politics. But WI has always had a blend of progressive politics and bat-shit crazy conservatism that’s made it a pretty interesting swing state (though one without the electoral cachet of Florida or Ohio).
It’s a solid thing! But I was hoping for something with a bit more 30+ appeal. Still, it’s a sign his media strategists are thinking smartly about how to get his name out there - SNL is a pretty good idea!
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We should “hold on to your wigs” because exactly the people who were predicted to win, actually won? This should be a surprise to no one. His win has not altered FiveThirtyEight’s prediction that Bernie only has about a 7% chance of winning South Carolina.
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I think it’s significant that he didn’t just do SNL… he did SNL with Larry David, who does a perfect Bernie impression. 30-somethings get Curb Your Enthusiasm jokes, and when your impressionist is getting big cheers for just acting like you (not mocking, just being Bernie), it’s a good sign.
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And don’t forget HRC’s Organization. She’s got people in place and walking the streets to canvas/campaign, where Sanders is probably still battling to set something up.
phew, because I was getting into strawman territory there!
That was a great read, thank you for the link. Quoting from the link, attributed to you:
I believe she has a good understanding of that.
I don’t think she conceives of “moving the ball” more than a yard or two though.
Hillary fought to become an insider, and did so. Bernie eats alone at the Senate Cafeteria
and, well. this.
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Ann Arbor isn’t a normal town for Michigan or much of the US, for that matter. However, Sanders already has a lot of support around here. Among a wider range of age groups than the big media outlets are giving him credit for. The main demographic of my neighborhood is early middle age professionals with elementary age children. There are already 3 yards that I’ve seen with signs for Sanders, none for Clinton (even more interesting, no signs for any Republicans - there are about 5 homeowners that I’m aware of having supported Republican candidates the last two cycles). It’s early in the cycle, but around this time in 2008 there were about equal numbers of signs for Clinton as Obama among the homeowners who care to display their political leanings. I find it a bit telling there are none for Clinton now, and reminds me yet again that X-ers are a completely forgotten demographic.
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You know some of these Muslims are so cunning that they look “normal”? Like the Jews?
I have been in a taxi in London with a taxi driver telling us loudly how the “Pakis” were coming in and taking over the country not realising for one moment that one of our party was an upper class Pakistani from Lahore. When we got out the driver said to us “I know I go on a bit but it’s all right for you, you probably don’t have to live next to them”. At which point our Pakistani friend laughed so much he had to sit down on the pavement.
Never mind, I expect that Trump will be able to recruit enough DHS staff who can be trained to recognise Muslim names reliably.
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Spending more time with the mayor of Ft Lee?
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Electoral votes from each state go to the winner of that state, even if the winner won with less than 50% of the vote.
These guys were actually both named Mohamed, so it wasn’t exactly subtle.
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no, that was just an email from Ted Cruz
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