While Putin argued in his remarks that his deputies were “following public opinion”, it is clear that the Duma vote on Tuesday was largely managed by the Kremlin. As Putin noted, the decision for a partial withdrawal from the borders was directly tied to the vote on recognising the republics. One form of pressure on Ukraine was being swapped for another.
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This concentration on Donetsk and Lukhansk is quite possibly the distraction, not the main objective.
Once tensions are sufficiently raised over these areas, there can be a negotiated peace deal where tensions over these areas ramps back down, but Crimea is recognised as a Russian possession. Ensuring access to and control over the Black sea is a key Russian strategic goal, possibly even more so than maintaining a buffer zone between it and NATO.
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What I really fear is while yes, he wants to regain historic territory and show strength, this also serves his longer-term aim to destabilize and embarrass the US. He knows this is a no-win situation for NATO, and he knows the only thing worse for the US than not entering this militarily is entering this militarily. He has watched how the US handles wars and knows this is a kind of war we haven’t dealt with in generations.
Pretty much any decision Biden makes will be be seen as a bad one by whichever large percentage of the population differs. I think he feels Russia will fill the vacuum left by the US taking a more sedentary role internationally, and the Chinese probably share this hope in the Pacific. He’s standing up to what he considers to be the world bully and saying “What are you going to do about it?”
He’s creating what Amos in the Expanse novels would call “The Churn”. Shake it all up and create a new order. How far he is willing to take the game of chicken will affect millions, maybe billions of people. I am not sure he cares.
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This reminds me of when whatever it was - press always found a way to say it’s good news for the Republicans.
It’s not always good news for Putin either.
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One small misjudgment and all hell will break loose.
This is an old game the Russians have played for decades. It is also a time when any incident resulting from this type of behavior could result in war. Russia is trying everything they can to get a violent response from the US, and then they will blame us for starting the war. While their military plays these games, it is just a matter of time before they make a mistake or an overly aggressive pilot or soldier makes an overly aggressive move and an incident that costs lives occurs. It will by all means be the Russians who initiate it even if they make it look as if someone else fired the first round. The world sees the game.
But damned if I can see the way out of this. Too much ego at this point.
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I’m guessing they are counting on that…
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this whole situation reminds me so much of last april’s russia-ukraine war scare which led to nothing. i don’t know if it makes it more likely russia will invade to keep from seeming ineffectual or if the past is prologue to the future and means they will eventually defuse the situation like they did last time.
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It doesn’t, ultimately, matter who fires the first shot over the border. Only what the Russian propaganda says about it. (Which is to say, of course the Russians are going to say the Ukranians fired first.)
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The Shelling of Mainila (Finnish: Mainilan laukaukset, Swedish: Skotten i Mainila, Russian: Ма́йнильский инциде́нт, romanized: Máynil’skiy intsidént) was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union’s Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the nearby border and claimed to have had losses in personnel. Through that false flag operation, the Soviet Union gained a great propaganda boost and a casus belli for launching the Winter War four days later.
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The Covid relief National Guard that had been extended until April at my hospital was pulled out today, with no notice. Permanently, it seems. They were here second shift, no third. I have no indication it was about the Ukraine situation, but it is a bit troubling.
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Apparently, Wednesday is out, but Thursday is right in for starting wars in Europe…
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Let it be so…
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Not too much longer before that part of the country becomes a virtual mud pit. No armor moving through that except on roads, and that makes them too easy a target. So there is an expiration date on this. We shall see.
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Biden:
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Russia is delivering a formal written reply to the US letter sometime today. Evidently they intend to make their letter public at the same time.
They also expelled the US Deputy Ambassador today.
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Someone finally reported on it in English.
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Three days until the closing ceremonies in Beijing. After that the big tough guy in Moscow won’t have to worry about upseting Winnie the Pooh with his land grab
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