I’d expect, due to vastly fewer moving parts, that an EV would potentially outlast a combustion car. The main issue there would be battery life, and whether or not the batteries get replaced if/when they fail vs. the car getting scrapped.
Another thing to consider is that battery technology is definitely not standing still. Solid-state batteries are next in the pipeline, with a Toyota/Panasonic partnership planning to bring them to market next year.
My mistake. In the past when I’ve seen that set of points (and I see them with some frequency) they’re talking points repeated by people not interested in discourse and it’s proven to be a waste of time to go to the effort of rebutting them with facts or argumentation. I’m glad to find I’m wrong in this case.
OK, let us summarize the claims of the paragraph in question and take them one by one:
The onus is not on me to disprove this, but on you to prove it. Modern EVs haven’t even been on the road for >= 10 years, so there’s no worked example, and it’s hard to prove a negative. That said, there are a decent number of Teslas that have been on the road since 2012. There are also quite high-mileage Teslas, that have put ~200,000 miles (heh, kilometer fans can convert for themselves, or furlongs, light years, whatever) into the pack. This story reports a pack being replaced for reasons unrelated to capacity. After about 200,000 miles it had lost 6% of capacity.
Anyway, this goes to say that with modern temperature-controlled batteries and battery management systems the shibboleth that batteries will wither and die quickly is at best, not strongly supported by evidence. I will add that these batteries are replaceable. They’re not cheap, but they are replaceable. When an ICE vehicle reaches middle age, by that time it will have required a good amount of money in service, and will require progressively more expensive services as bigger-ticket items start to need replacement. In the case of an EV there’s essentially one big-ticket drivetrain item in this category: the battery. Furthermore, batteries are likely to be substantially cheaper by the time the service life of currently in-service packs is reached, so you can view the current expensive replacement cost to be an upper bound, not an expected value.
If you meant something other than battery life by the claim about “10 years”, please be more specific.
This is a strawman, nobody says they’re super great for the environment. If I put words in your mouth and rewrite your objection as “the carbon impact of EV manufacture is greater than that of ICE manufacture” that is true, but per the Union of Concerned Scientists, that handicap is completely overcome within 18 months and the EV is better from then on. I’ll also point out that lithium is valuable enough that the simple economics of it mean that batteries will be recycled, not for noble reasons but because money.
If I’ve misconstrued your point, please articulate it more clearly.
I think you have conceded this point, correctly pointing out that carbon attributable to EVs is <= half that to ICEs. I’ll just add that it’s also desirable to move particulates and other emissions out of city streets and to a central, scrubbed, inspected plant.
Do you also castigate your black coworkers for their “incorrect” usage of “Ebonics”?
The Prius V has a boxy rear like a mini-van.
Um, maybe crash safety standards? Yes, it’s true that the Mini has grown significantly, but it’s still a small car compared to most, and it’s interior dimensions are a lot more useful. Look at how other smaller cars have done - Smart, Scion IQ… they don’t do very well in the marketplace. Mini’s trying to stay in business, not just define themselves by their moniker.
Also, it’s not true that the Countryman has the same wheelbase as the Land Rover Discovery - it’s 105" compared to the Disco’s 115", and the length is 170" compared to Disco’s 190".
Congratulations on being able to afford a luxury car that is well supported.
That one says most people will not buy a full electric unless it’s a second car, so they can hang onto a car that does everything people want a car to do.
Yeah, most trips are short, except for the ones that aren’t. For which electric cars are now considered impractical by all but true believers.
Again, if you’re dedicated to electric cars and find one that suits your needs, good for you. Mass adoption, however, is not around the corner. That’s all I’m saying.
Awesome, BMW is making a 2015 Nissan Leaf. That is going to fly off the shelves.
I’m sure that’s correct, ref today’s models.
I found the source of the allegation… in 2017 the arsehole Jeremy Clarkson wrote of the original Discovery:
The first model was cobbled together out of some steel girders and bits and bobs from the dying embers of Austin Rover. It had a shorter wheelbase than today’s Mini,
Which is yet another example of continuing car bloat.
Oh, that’s true - 100" according to Wikipedia. Still, it was longer overall though, by about 9".
Boxy is as boxy does. If it absorbs real boxes, up to the head lining and all the way back to the tailgate, great.
But from the look of the things, this
Agree! The BMW mini is not small. The original was. I’m surprised given carbon etc that cars haven’t gone small again - but the Chinese will do it!
I give you the Nissan Rogue, a weird faux-4x4, which has less usable cubic space than a comparable Nissan sedan.
The roofline is deceptive. Your eyes naturally trace the window line, while the roof is level from the rear seats back. This angle shows it better:
The sides do angle inward from the waist up.
But then again, so do modern Volvo wagons. There is no modern passenger vehicle that is as boxy as a 90’s Volvo - not even Volvos!
faux-by-faux?
Fixed that for you.
It’s probably true that there is nearly complete overlap between those two groups within the 1%.
I look forward to seeing how an electric Mini does in a road rally.
Do I correctly understand that you are revising your strategy from dismissing EVs as impractical because everyone knows they are impractical (the “true believers” gambit), to dismissing them because only richy rich rich plutocrats drive them (the “1%” gambit)?
I am fairly certain that while quite expensive compared to, say, a Corolla, driving a Model 3 does not require an annual income of $718,766.
I contend that later Volvo estates were still boxy enough from the 850 to the identical but renamed V70 and some later V70s, though they did get a bit ‘curvy’ thereafter. But even the most recent V70 (2016 was last production year) was far boxier (and had level-load fold-down seats) than the current V90 or V60 - neither of which has load-level rear seats, and both of which have ‘dog-leg’ rear tailgates.
But you are correct - the 240s, 740s, 940s were the kings of boxiness.
I do like those fold-flat Prius seats though. May have to visit a dealer…
No, you are not correctly understanding. Do I have a strategy? Not really. The 1% is people that own electric cars in the U.S., not plutocrats. EVs are entirely practical for people whose needs match what they can get out of an electric car they can afford.
All I’m really on about is that the 5-10 year timeline for replacement of ICE cars by electrics seems wildly off base. Eventually electrics will dominate the market. They will have to become much cheaper (although I hope govt. subsidies will be ramped up) and convincingly solve the range, charging infrastructure and cold-weather problems before the rapture of the EV disciples is realized. I guess in around 20-30 years? And ICE cars will not go away entirely, for a variety of reasons.
