Agreed.
Averaged out, yes.
Overall, the trend is for higher temperatures, yes.
The scatterplot on the Berkeley Earth graph has some blue annual average points below that red 10-year moving average line.
So in my Bart Simpson thought exercise, my argument is that not every summer would be a hotter summer for The Theoretical Bart (TTB). If one were to chart TTB’s 10-year lookback, his present year, and a 10-year forecast, my guess is that some of the summers TTB would experience might be cooler than a summer immediately preceding or following, year on year. I think I could have worded my previous post more clearly. I was arguing against an unbroken string of ever-hotter summers.
Can confirm from personal experience.
[and now the new higher death totals are arguably adjusted statistically, possibly, depending on how much one can believe Buzzfeed:]
Oh man, this is the $64,000 question, unadjusted to reflect inflation of course.
I’d love to hear from any meteorology nerds on this bbs chime in, because I have a question or three about weather modeling, their own takes on what these models say about the 10-year outlook for thermohaline circulation, their confidence rates for various data sources, and what the current wisdom says about favoring one model over another.
Then I’d love to hear from economic nerds about decarbonization. What’s being done where, successful scalable, replicable projects (and btw I don’t put much trust in feasibility studies so to heck with most of those), etc.
ETA: mild typo
