Any lower, and it would be underground.
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You know what? If he wants to delude himself like this, whatever. His rise to prominence was a catalyst for huge turnout on the D side and ensuring the recall failed.
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Thats an interesting question, which probably requires a lot more information that we have right now.
In CA, registered Democrats are 46%, Republicans are 24%, Independents are 23%.LINK Assuming the vote went strictly partisan (and you split Independents 50/50), you’d get 57/33 vote. Sure, some Republicans voted to keep Newsom, but I’m doubtful on “a lot” doing so. I think its more likely that Newson got a lot of the Independent demo, than Republican. (But I’m a pessimist.)
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I wouldn’t be surprised if plenty of Republicans just stayed home – after all Trump and Elder were beating the “this election is rigged” drum weeks in advance which seems to me like it wouldn’t help turnout. (Why bother if it’s a foregone conclusion?)
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Moreover the discussion here so far assumes either 100% voter turnout or voter turnout by affiliation entirely proportional to the composition of the electorate.
I think it’s likely that many/most/almost-all Republicans who did vote voted yes on recall. But a sizable chunk of Republican voters were underenthused by the polling predictions (especially the late changes in them) and simply sat on their hands at home.
Just speculation on my part, it’d be interesting to see how turnout did in fact break out.
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This from the NYT this morning: (excerpt) The recall does offer at least one lesson to Democrats in Washington ahead of next year’s midterm elections: The party’s pre-existing blue- and purple-state strategy of portraying Republicans as Trump-loving extremists can still prove effective with the former president out of office, at least when the strategy is executed with unrelenting discipline, an avalanche of money and an opponent who plays to type. [Jonathan Martin]
In my own opinion, (1) anyone in the GOP who remains silent on Trumpism or who offers knowingly sluggish and imprecise critique of it are enablers of Trumpism, and therefore are fair-game for portrayal as “Trump-loving extremists”; and (2) I’d be especially wary of any election opponent who did not play “to type” but falls into my part 1 description.
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That strategy seemed to work for a statewide office, but we should be careful about assuming that this result means much one way or the other when it comes to the local races in the midterms. Midterm races for congressmen and state assembly/house members are much more regional, and there are still plenty of Trump lovers in the more rural areas of California.
Edit: right now California’s house delegation includes 42 Democrats and 11 republicans. If that were to change to, say, 37 D / 16 R, and the rest of the country stayed the same, that would be enough to flip the house to the Republicans.
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Agreed. For what it’s worth, the NYT “analysis” focused on blue and purple states. Not that blue states are “a gimme”, I’d think the strategy is viable for purple states which did turn in 2020 and voted for Biden, i.e., the Trump-stink is worth weaponizing.
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On the one hand it’s hilarious - hey, I too concede this election! On the other hand… it’s also hilarious because Elder’s increased profile is being credited as the deciding factor for the outcome of the recall. Newsom’s whole strategy was just to point to Elder and essentially ask, “Really, him?”
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I took a look at both Fox and OAN coverage of the recall.
Very Strange ,
They say it must be fraud when it a recall in a Democratic State that is 2 Dems for every Republicans. And the GOP had over 40 candidates .
Their leading one was a guy that wanted to pay former Slave owners for their slaves and also called for ending Minimum wages in CA .
Gee , I wonder why Voters in California did not support this guy?
Clearly it must be Fraud.
It’s always “fraud” when they lose; elections are only fair when their side wins.
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They were claiming Fraud , on Monday before the election happen.
Because it can not be that the Republican choose bad candidates .
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It only 270 million .
Some more perspective from the SF Gate on just how badly Elder lost this election, given the fact that a very large number of people chose to leave the second question blank:
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Good, not great
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“The devil we know.”
I get what Beau is saying, and personally I’m feeling far more relieved than victorious.
I don’t necessarily agree that 45-ism made a minor ‘gain,’ because:
A) Not all the votes are counted, yet.
B) 45’s followers are actively poisoning and killing themselves off.
That said, the advice to never underestimate the fascist assholes is sage.
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If I’m not mistaken, two of those R Congresspersons just squeaked by to win their seats* AND this was before Trump had his meltdown. If they owe their seats seats to independent voters, these districts could flip back to D.
*Young Kim vs Gil Cisneros in the 39th (50.6 to 49.4) and Michelle Steele vs Harley Rouda (51.1 to 48.9)
I’m optimistic.
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I’m picking up what you are throwing down. 
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