Well I can’t dispute your math. I think you convinced me to agree with what you are saying. Perhaps it is just a bit counter intuitive. Actually I have a neat fold out thing I saved years ago because I liked the graphic design, and it used graphics to show to scale the likelihood of death via what ever. Mostly cancer, heart disease, falls, etc. So it is just another way of looking at it. Stats are weird because their meaning can be hard to interpret on how they impact your life. In this stat, there is no getting out alive. Something is going to kill you. What was it?
So considering about half of gun deaths are murders, and looking the CDC fast stats there are nearly 5000 more non-gun murders (17,793), plugging in your number it is nearly a 1% chance you died via homicide - .894%
Let’s look at all suicides. There are 44,193 on the CDC fast stats (total), so that comes to 2.22%. Wow, we are over 2.5 times as likely, to take ourselves out. That’s sad.
Still, using your formula, when comparing it to more common, less sensational deaths, I think it puts the risk in some perspective. But I know, I know, stairs and ladders and cleaning chemicals aren’t made to kill people. It doesn’t make them less dangerous than they are, but we are more familiar and comfortable around that danger.
Falls - 33381, 1.678%
Poison - 47478, 2.387%
I am less concerned with changing minds, vs accurate info, and a perception of this side that better reflects reality, and not the caricature of people like Brian Kemp who I have to try to assure people is the exception, not the norm.
