IMHO, this is the most likely scenario. Well, no, the most likely scenario is a lot of right wing griping and conspiracy theorizing and threats, with some low-level stochastic terroristic attacks. But in the event of actual armed conflict, yeah.
8 Likes
My real worry is that Jan 6 will look like a certain beer hall putsch, in hindsight.
…which is the same argument they use against gun control. “Only outlaws will have guns” and all that silliness. It’s hypocrisy all the way down.
Honestly, this sounds very much like what is happening now. 
That’s the really sad part of this. If the government was serious about catching these people, they absolutely could. They’re all frankly incompetent. Look at Jan 6- most of them posted video of themselves and their friends to their own social media. Then there’s all the militia groups like Oathkeepers, Montana Freemen, etc- they have compounds with signs on them. Everyone knows where they live, what they are planning, and that they almost certainly have all manner of illegal weapons in there. The only reason (apparently) that they didn’t all show up on Jan 6 with said weapons is because insiders from the Capitol told them not to. Sadly, you don’t have to be competent to blow up buildings or whatever else they are planning.
From all the discussion in this thread, it seems like the much bigger threat, rather than civil war, is the breakdown of free elections in the US. If too many MAGAs get into positions of power, they could tear things down very quickly, it seems.
13 Likes
That seems the most likely scenario to me, too. Not that there won’t also continue to be the “lone wolf” attacks that aren’t. But the bigger shift will be if we continue to allow the RWNJs to flout all norms and break laws and disrupt democracy and don’t hold them to account.
That is a precedent that is very dangerous to set.
11 Likes
That fits. I read an article around 2003 about the issues involved in holding Iraq after a military victory. The article gave an example (quoting from memory) that during the peak of The Troubles in Ireland, the IRA had around 400 active members while the UK had 10,000 soldiers stationed in NI. That’s a mind-boggling amount of resources to be used up by a relatively small number of people.
5 Likes
There is nothing really to be gained by a civil war. The idea of a MAGA state is so fucking nebulous that when you try to look at it, you realise there’s nothing there - It’s only visible out of the corner of your eye. You might think it’s Gilead, but nobody in Gilead really wants to be living in Gilead.
It’s clear from all the video clips (especially the Jordan Klepper ones) that the MAGA people are in love with the idea of MAGA, but can’t answer specific questions about it actually is. It’s just a mirage.
They’re terrified by ‘Liberals’, but what does that even mean. To them it means a vague melange of strawmen - Muslims, Gays, Trans People and pedophiles. But none of this is real and it won’t stand up to scrutiny.
None of this is even nearly good enough reason for civil war and it seems to me that the US is nothing if not the Land of Convenience. A couple of days of the privations of war (let alone the actual violence, terror and death) would be enough to convince most US citizens that civil war isn’t such a great idea.
Then you have the Xtians, distinct from the MAGAs. US evangelism is nothing but a money-spinner for its charismatic leaders. Ideally, they want to surf the wave of the apocalypse into infinity (they’ve been successfully surfing since at least the early '80s). You might think that they want their wave to crash and usher in the Rapture and the Kingdom of God, but if that happens all those Sweet-Baby-Jesus-dollars will dry up. (Also, that’s nonsense)
So who benefits from Civil War? I dunno exactly, but not the USians. Certainly not the MAGAs who are generally aging, ill-educated and have health issues. Maybe foreign powers or crisis capitalists. The markets? That seems doubtful given what happened in the UK in recent weeks. The grifters? Certainly they’re making out like bandits now, but like the Evangelicals, they’re surfing a wave that mustn’t crash. The GOP? If it can arrange a nice clean Fascist coup, yeah, maybe. But a civil war? Dunno…
But with the Police Force all singing from the same hymn sheet and acting as a nervous system and the right wing Militias acting as muscle, it seems to me that an attempted Fascist coup and an accidental civil war are possible outcomes.
8 Likes
WE know that… it’s the right wingers you got to convince of that…
Hate and tax cuts.
I think that’s true to an extent. We’re also the land of dissatisfaction that we’re not all the rugged, wealthy, individuals we’re told we should be. And that can be used in dangerous ways.
Yes and no. There is strong overlap between the two groups. That goes back to groups like the John Birch Society, that led a tax revolt, saw communists around every corner, and rebelled against integration, all while claiming they were the only righteous Christians.
Corporations and the wealthy who sweep in to seize control of the country to ensure it looks like they want it to (increasingly, that’s a white Christian ethno-state). They’ll rule over a pile of ashes, but they’ll rule. What they want isn’t anything nearly as glorious as they believe.
It absolutely is.
8 Likes
The problem is that this kind of vague poorly defined fear/hate is ripe for being taken advantage of by dangerous actors who are well organized and do have specific tangible goals. This is the environment where the Kochs, Alex Joneses, the Cheneys, and worse of the world thrive. Trump tried to be one of those guys but he’s too much of an idiot to pull it off.
It’s a volatile environment where something very bad could happen when just the right bad actor comes along with just the right spark.
Furthermore, in this kind of environment, we can’t solve the real problems that we need to be working on, like climate change. Of course, this is what the Thiels of the world want.
8 Likes
Yep. Like say, a bad actor breaking into a Dem politician’s house with a hammer.
7 Likes
Um… he managed to get a mob to storm the capital on his behalf… He had specific and tangible goals, which included keeping himself in office. The fact that he’s ham-fisted doesn’t mean he’s not been able to pull that off - he has, he did to a certain extent. He’s not in jail yet, so he’s continuing to pull it off in that sense (though we can hope it’s coming). He also STILL is dominating the GOP, even AFTER Jan. 6th. He’s also not separate from the others you listed, he’s part of it, as it’s interconnected network. He was backed by Thiel, Jones, and although they wouldn’t admit it the Kochs and the Mercers… Not to mention Sheldon Adelstein… He’s got money behind him, and a violent, hateful message that resonates.
I’ll stress again that fascism doesn’t take a high level of smarts to pull off - all it needs is a willingness to use legal, quasi-legal, and illegal means along with bullying and violence and hate to get people on your side. He’s done all that.
We underestimate Trump at our peril (and people have done that since 2015). This is not because he’s super-villain levels of smart, or a super-genius, because he’s not… he just is willing to employ the tactics of ALL bullies who use violence and hate to get what they want.
7 Likes
Yes, sorry, not intending to minimize everything there. I just meant he wasn’t the guy who ended the world, but he wanted to be.
3 Likes
Sure, but we’re still in the middle of this and will be until he’s dead or in jail… I’m also afraid that the movement he managed to bring together can go on functioning without him. The whole movement needs to be dismantled, or they’ll continue impacted the functioning of the government. If there are real world legal consequences for the leaders of this movement (from Trump on down) then that will be a huge help. That won’t happen as long as people are ignoring historical precedence and the media keeps treating things like politics as usual.
I don’t think they’ve won (like some seem to believe), but I’m not underestimating them either. And of course, you fine folks up there don’t want a fascist state on your border either. It could also further radicalize your own right wingers, among other things… Fascism has a way of metastasizing.
4 Likes
This topic was automatically closed after 5 days. New replies are no longer allowed.
